We are Heading for Global Climatic Tipping Points

EarthArXiv, 2023

Although the 2015 Paris Agreement climate targets seem certain to be missed, only a few experts are questioning the adequacy of the current approach to limiting climate change and suggesting that additional approaches are needed to avoid unacceptable catastrophes. This article posits that selective science communication and unrealistically optimistic assumptions are obscuring the reality that greenhouse gas emissions reduction and carbon dioxide removal will not curtail climate change in the 21st Century. It also explains how overly pessimistic and speculative criticisms are behind opposition to considering potential climate cooling interventions 1 as a complementary approach for mitigating 2 dangerous warming.

2009

Grzegorz Peszko; Markus Amann; Yewande Awe; Gary Kleiman; Tamer Samah Rabie, 2023

Greenhouse gas emissions-which include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases-from human activities have risen to concentrations in the atmosphere that have not been seen in millions of years, since a time when trees grew at the South Pole and the sea level rose by 20 metres. According to the IPCC's estimate, our remaining carbon budget for a 67 per cent chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C at the beginning of 2020 was 400 gigatonnes. [*] At the current rate of emissions, we will exceed this carbon budget before 2030.

Climate Change: What We Know, What We Don’t Know, What We Can Do, & What Happens If We Don’t, 2023

An overview of climate change information for teachers and non-specialists

"Climate tipping elements" often refer to large-scale earth systems with the potential to respond nonlinearly to anthropogenic climate change by transitioning towards substantially different long-term states upon passing key thresholds, frequently referred to as "tipping points." In some but not all cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Improving understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with ten notable earth systems proposed to be climate tipping elements. We evaluate which tipping elements are more imminent and whether shifts will likely manifest rapidly or over longer timescales. Some tipping elements are significant to future global climate and will likely affect major ecosystems, climate patterns, and/or carbon cycling within the 21st century. However, assessments under different emissions scenarios indicate a strong potential to reduce or avoid impacts associated with many tipping elements through climate change mitigation. Most tipping elements do not possess the potential for abrupt future change within years, and some proposed tipping elements may not exhibit tipping behavior, rather responding more predictably and directly to the magnitude of forcing. Nevertheless, significant uncertainties remain associated with many tipping elements, highlighting an acute need for further research and modeling to better constrain risks.

EarthArXiv, 2020

Because the 2015 Paris Agreement will not prevent dangerous climate change, there is an urgent need to develop an alternative mitigation strategy. Even if all national commitments are met and technological breakthroughs accelerate the transition to emission-free technologies, the 2°C target will still be overshot due to systemic inertia from existing greenhouse gases, warming oceans, and the decades required to replace existing infrastructure. Compounding factors include: (a) Most policy-makers greatly underestimate the scale, severity and duration of climate change, and the non-linear impacts of lags, feedbacks and tipping points; (b) Although all IPCC mitigation scenarios require the large-scale deployment of climate geoengineering, many methods may not be politically and/or technologically feasible; (c) While most scenarios assume climate overshoot will occur before safe climates are re-established, many human and environmental systems cannot adapt to higher temperatures. Temperatures likely to cause catastrophic and/or irreversible damage pose unacceptable risks. 2 Developing a viable mitigation strategy will require prioritising research both on climate overshoot risks, and on the relative effectiveness, risks, costs and timelines of potential mitigation methods. Since geoengineering is required to rapidly mitigate dangerous overshoot, the viability and risks of all potential geoengineering methods need to be investigated. This research is a prerequisite for evaluating the comparative benefits, costs and risks of using, or not using, various forms of mitigation. A risk management plan can then be developed containing mitigation targets that are precise, measurable and attainable, with clear constraints on the magnitude and duration of both climate overshoot risks and mitigation methods.

2010

accelerate the melt rate, p6 ©evirgen & NASA- iStockphoto ® , p8 ©Domen Colja- Photospin ® , p12 ©Darren Green- Photospin ®, p14 ©kavram- Photospin ® , p16 ©Brian Press Tornado- Photospin ® , p17 ©kavram- Photospin ® , p18 ©Luoman Amazon rainforest deforestation- iStockphoto ® , p22 ©Charles Westerlage Ice carving from Hubbard Glacier- Photospin ® , p28 ©Stephen Schneider Sunset giant iceberg at Ilulissat, p31 ©Jan Martin Will- iStockphoto ® , p32 ©Phil Dickson Ice stack collapsing off the Perito Moreno Glacier, Patagonia Argentina- iStockphoto ®, p34 ©Photospin ® South Pacific Islands, p39 ©Sebastian D’Souza Indian commuters walk through floodwater- Getty Images ® , p42 ©kavram Death Valley- Photospin ® , p45 ©Maxim Tupikov Arctic icebreaker- iStockphoto ® , p46 ©Alexander Hafeman (Mlenny) Dead Vlei Namibia-iStockphoto ® , ©p47 ©E. Steig, p48 ©Ian Joughin Meltwater on the Greenland Ice Sheet, p51 ©Gary Bydlo- Photospin ®,

2023

There is mounting evidence that some large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point (tipping elements) have already crossed it or are near doing so. The Amazon rainforest, the world's largest tropical forest, is one of the most threatened tipping elements. Its eastern portion may already be moving irreversibly towards a non-forest ecosystem. Other less destroyed regions are losing resilience and are already in a high-risk zone. As a result of the war waged against the forest between August 2018 and December 2022, the Brazilian Amazon saw more than 55,000 km 2 of primary forest eliminated by clear-cut deforestation, an area 33% larger than the Netherlands (41,543 km²). Furthermore, it was extensively degraded, mainly by fires (121,383 fire outbreaks identified by satellites during this period) and logging (2.36 million tons of raw wood exported in 2021 alone). These processes, aggravated by regional warming far above the global average and the conversion of the forest to a net carbon source, may have brought the forest as a whole significantly closer to its tipping point. Here, we report and analyze data and scientific projections available over the last four years in order to assess the worsening situation of the forest under Jair Bolsonaro's presidency (2019-2022). Contrary to previous governments, which were generally negligent in relation to deforestation and forest degradation, Bolsonaro chose the destruction of the Amazon rainforest as a priority goal for his administration. He must be held accountable in national and international courts for his deliberate policy of forest annihilation.

2019

brings together international expertise on economics, as well as finance, geography, the environment, international development and political economy to establish a world-leading centre for policy-relevant research, teaching and training in climate change and the environment. It is funded by the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment, which also funds the Grantham Institute-Climate Change and Environment at Imperial College London. www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/ The Earth Institute at Columbia University blends research in the physical and social sciences, education and practical solutions to help guide the world onto a path toward sustainability. The Earth Institute's research ranges from paleoclimatology, in order to understand the long history of climate change, to hands-on work with local governments to help them improve their daily water supply. It develops earth system models and vulnerability assessments to help adapt to the climate change now underway, as well as forecasting tools that help us develop ways to reduce the effects of climate change in the future. www.earth.columbia.edu/ The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) addresses crucial scientific questions in the fields of global change, climate impacts and sustainable development. Researchers from the natural and social sciences work together to generate interdisciplinary insights and to provide society with sound information for decision making. Its main methodologies are systems and scenarios analysis, modelling, computer simulation, and data integration. www.pik-potsdam.de/