Forecasting the Future: The BRICs and the China Model

Studies in Business and Economics, 2010

The world is (permanently) changing-and from time to time major shifts occur and redefine its patterns of evolution. The global economy within it gets new leading actors and defining features, new power balance and architecture. This is inevitable in order to develop. Sometime of these shifts seem to be the result of a scientifically grounded, well defined and consciously applied strategy, and sometime it seems to be the result of some kind of a Brownian movement (something like: "it just happened"). In this paper we analyze the fascinating "case" of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). Having some (a few) common features, but actually being very different (in most of the aspects), and in an absence of a unique mission, vision and development strategy, the four countries have started to be seen as an entity (given their previous evolution and based on forecasting studies)-not only able to change the patterns of the global economy, but, more than that, able to lead it in the (almost near) future (the year 2050). This very optimistic projection of Goldman Sachs obviously has (and still have) its critics, but the governments of the BRICs took it very seriously-by assuming the theory and organizing annual common meetings-the best of the validation! The impact of the global crisis (and recession) on the BRICs is a major challenge for them and the opinions also vary a lot in this aspect-from "BRICs didn't experience the crisis yet" to "BRIC will offer the best models of recovery"; we just have to "wait and see".

… , Russia, India and China (BRICs), 2006

International Journal of Political Economy, 2016

Over the next 50 years, Brazil, Russia, India and China-the BRICs economies-could become a much larger force in the world economy. We map out GDP growth, income per capita and currency movements in the BRICs economies until 2050. n The results are startling. If things go right, in less than 40 years, the BRICs economies together could be larger than the G6 in US dollar terms. By 2025 they could account for over half the size of the G6. Of the current G6, only the US and Japan may be among the six largest economies in US dollar terms in 2050. n The list of the world's ten largest economies may look quite different in 2050. The largest economies in the world (by GDP) may no longer be the richest (by income per capita), making strategic choices for firms more complex.

2009

Global Finance Journal, 2007

The combined economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) appear likely to become the largest global economic group by the middle of this century. Our paper summarizes the features of each economy that justify this forecast, and highlights some of the country-specific obstacles that could prevent its realization. Specifically, we contribute an analysis of the relative difficulty of doing business within each country and discuss how this, combined with a lack of long-term conditions to promote growth, affects the potential of these markets to lead the future world economy.

The BRICS have in the past decade shaken the world economy with their remarkable growth. Their share in the world GDP grew from 11 percent in 1990 to 25 percent in 2011. However, much of this success could be attributed to China and India. While China indulged in investment based growth model, India was reaping the benefits of its economic liberalization. Meanwhile Russia earned from the energy needs that China’s growth had created and Brazil attacked its own macroeconomic woes for a faster growth. South Africa, however, sneaked into the group and has been the one most lagging behind. The question which this report attempts to address is whether these nations are still the growth drivers of the world. There are several factors which suggest that even though these economies might continue to grow they cannot recreate the magic with their remarkable growth in 2000s. That period saw an unprecedented growth partly because of the surge in the growth of these countries owing to reasons inherent to their economies and partly due to the sluggish growth of the richer economies. That was the period when they witnessed the major sub-prime crisis of which the BRICS, to some extent, were shielded. The room to catch-up is now low. The challenges which each of the BRICS is facing have been used to suggest that their ruling period appears to have ended unless they revisit their strategies. Instead the N11 have emerged as the next set of potential economies though they too cannot be expected to replicate what BRICS achieved from 1999 to 2011.

Innovative Journal of Business and Management, 2015

The decade following the twist of the modern millennium has been characterized by the surfacing of the BRICS countries-Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa-which have come to account for a significant share of economic growth, demand expansion, industrial production and wealth creation in today's world. The triumph of these regional economic powers in achieving unrelenting economic growth has become a reference point both for developing countries to imitate and for industrialized countries to regain economic dynamism. What can other countries learn from the BRICS's development experiences is the subject matter justified in light of history. To answer this important question, similarities and diversities that characterize the development patterns of the BRICS are summarized. All BRICS countries share some commonalities, for example, their rapid structural change, sources of regional demand and production, accretion of industrial capabilities, regional technical cooperation and South-South technology transfer. To gain greater insights into these issues, historical analysis has been employed and thus adds new perspectives to the interpretation of facts. Furthermore, the paper draws policy implications and derives lessons from the BRICS countries' experiences.

Nowadays there are becoming challenges in economic, politics and other sectors between countries. And they are trying to balance their differences by cooperation in these sectors. In Southeast Asia, ASEAN is the developing institution. For Asia Pacific Region, they cooperated as APEC. The aim of this paper is to subscribe the ideas, prospects and reality of APEC and the politics and society of Asia-Pacific region. The APEC is about the evolution of ideas to fit an Asia Pacific reality that was different from that which shaped regional economic cooperation in Western Europe and later North America. It is the story of institutions being developed to fit the ideas that have emerged in response to the different reality. The evolution of APEC has faced a special challenge from the strength in North America of ideas and political perceptions formed in a North Atlantic reality. The contemporary tensions in APEC have their origins partly in this challenge. The resolution of the tensions and therefore the future of APEC depend significantly on the ideas which have shaped APEC expanding their influence in the North American intellectual and political heartland. control. Authoritarian rulers use bureaucracy to continue their goals. In doing so, they create complex institutional structures that do not necessarily manifest themselves as elections are held and new governments are established. Moving to democracy also involves a complex struggle to control the most modern equipment and, therefore, strengthen accountability. The aim of this paper is to subscribe about the overview and history of APEC, its idea, reality, boundaries and memberships, Asia Pacific reality and milestones, politics and society of Asia-Pacific region and to know how the countries approach from economic to politic strategy and country relation for their benefit by forming economic organization and cooperation between each other countries. APEC ideas and reality On January 31, 1989, the former Prime Minister of Australia, Bob Hawke, publicly presented the idea of APEC during a speech in Seoul, Korea. Ten months later, 12 economies in Asia and the Pacific met in Canberra, Australia, to establish APEC. The founding members were United States,

Procedia Economics and Finance, 2014

This paper analyzes the importance of the BRICS group as representatives of emerging countries in the global economy. It is worth noting that the financial crisis had no strong effect on the BRICS group and it had a much better economic performance than developed countries. The main factors that led to the economic expansion of the group were an increased input of factors, and enormous scales of population and resources. For example, Brazil and Russia are mainly based on huge reserves of mineral resources and speculations made in international markets. China has an advantage of cheap labor and resources at low prices. India is also based on low-cost workforce. And last but not least, all the BRICS countries, except Brazil, show very high rates of investment. The current concern is to estimate whether the BRICS countries will have the same upward trend given the weakness identified within them: the high level of corruption, political different ideologies, over exposure to commodities etc.