Climate migration myths

Nature Climate Change, 2019

Minimizing the adverse consequences of sea-level change presents a key societal challenge. New modelling is necessary to examine the implications of global policy decisions that determine future greenhouse gas emissions and local policies around coastal risk that influence where and how we live.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Anthropogenic sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to impact, and, in many cases, displace, a large proportion of the population via inundation and heightened SLR-related hazards. With the global coastal population projected to surpass one billion people this century, SLR might be among the most costly and permanent future consequences of climate change. In this Review, we synthesize the rapidly expanding knowledge of human mobility and migration responses to SLR, providing a coherent roadmap for future SLR research and associated policy. While it is often assumed that direct inundation forces a migration, we discuss how mobility responses are instead driven by a diversity of socioeconomic and demographic factors, which, in some cases, do not result in a migration response. We link SLR hazards with potential mechanisms of migration and the associated governmental or institutional policies that operate as obstacles or facilitators for that migration. Specific examples from the USA, Bangladesh and atoll island nations are used to contextualize these concepts. However, further research is needed on the fundamental mechanisms underlying SLR migration, tipping points, thresholds and feedbacks, risk perception and migration to fully understand migration responses to SLR.

As climate change impacts worsen, losses and damages incurred in both developing and developed countries will continue to increase. While enhancing mitigation and adaptation efforts will influence the level of loss and damage avoided in the future, historical emissions have 'locked in' a certain level of climate change, making some residual losses and damages inevitable. Through examples from Kiribati and Alaska this paper will highlight the complexity involved in migration and relocating and recommend interventions for easing the resettlement process.

2014

"The implications of global warming have become increasingly clear. Yet, great inconsistencies are emerging amongst the world’s nations as to their policy responses to the perceived threats from global warming and other environmental changes. The consensus view that once may have existed in some nations and imposed on others, appears now to be breaking down. Exceedingly costly socio-economic policy mistakes will be the inevitable corollary of this world-wide scientific consensus breakdown as the policy responses of the different nations change in how they adapt to climate change risks. These inconsistent responses are now visible all over the world. A good example is the costly decision by Germany to demolish all their nuclear power facilities (due to the perceived flooding risks by the sea) in the aftermath of the Fukushima incident in Japan; whereas the UK is introducing new nuclear facilities in the Bristol Channel, where flooding risks are high and a tsunami struck in 1607. As a result of immensely costly policy decisions by Germany and the UK, thousands of people in both countries are already on the move in search of new homes and jobs: some to build nuclear reactors, while some wish to remove them for the ‘good’ of our environment. Similar examples are found across the world in many different situations due to the climate-driven uncertainties. A major source of uncertainty is the sea level. If Arctic meltdown proceeds unchecked, then some scientists say that we could have several metres of sea level rise, even by mid-century. This is very problematical for low-lying conurbations. For example Egypt is considering rebuilding Cairo inland in order to allow evacuation of the Nile Delta in case ofsea level rise. Furthermore, the disappearance of sea ice in summer may enhance the break-off of large volumes of ice from the Greenland ice sheet, sufficient to cause tsunamis in the North Atlantic. What is an appropriate response? "

HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe), 2019

An important physical response to anthropogenic climate change is the long term rise in global mean sea-level (GMSL). Given this context the French National Alliance for Environmental Research, which brings together the main French research institutions concerned with environment, tasked its foresight group with shedding light on sea-level rise by 2100, estimating the possible impacts and consequences for the environment and societies, and recommending future research priorities. We employ a foresight approach based on the scenario method with 23 driving variables for the coastal system and four physical contexts for the sea-level rise (moderate, serious, severe and extreme) leading to the development of eight contrasted and unconnected scenarios starting in 2020 and extending to 2100. Each scenario is defined by a storyline. Storylines are determined mainly by coastal adaptation efforts and the political will to mitigate climate change. These are structured in three families: (1) Priority given to adaptation (four scenarios: Climate control, Frugality and anticipation, Resilient cities, Early adaptation and late mitigation), (2) Denial of the phenomenon (three scenarios: Passivity, Gradual coastal abandonment, From denial to reaction) and (3) Fragmented world (one scenario: Persistent fragmentation). Scenario trajectories without vigorous and widespread mitigation policies before 2040 show that coastal States will have to deal with 'severe' or 'extreme' sea level rise by the end of the century. 'Severe' or 'Extreme' sea level rise outcomes are envisaged in five of the eight scenarios in the range of possible futures. Two scenarios lead to 'serious' sea level rise and one ideal scenario leads to a 'moderate' state. Adaptation efforts will be less cumbersome and costly when mitigation efforts have been early, widespread and sustained. The optimal scenario considers raising awareness of all actors in societies, leading to the introduction of fast and radical mitigation and adaptation efforts. All other scenarios mean that future generations may have to face major or even irreversible upheavals, at increasing costs.

International Journal of Global Warming, 2015

As climate change impacts worsen, losses and damages incurred in both developing and developed countries will continue to increase. While enhancing mitigation and adaptation efforts will influence the level of loss and damage avoided in the future, historical emissions have 'locked in' a certain level of climate change, making some residual losses and damages inevitable. Loss and damage from slow onset processes like sea level rise will ultimately require some communities and, in some cases, entire countries to relocate. Through examples from Kiribati and Alaska this paper will highlight the complexity involved in migrating and relocating and recommend interventions for easing the resettlement process.

Scientific Reports

Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions.

Population and Environment

Significant advances have been made to understand the interrelationship between humans and the environment in recent years, yet research has not produced useful localized estimates that link population forecasts to environmental change. Coarse, static population estimates that have little information on projected growth or spatial variability mask substantial impacts of environmental change on especially vulnerable populations. We estimate that 20 million people in the United States will be affected by sea-level rise by 2030 in selected regions that represent a range of sociodemographic characteristics and corresponding risks of vulnerability. Our results show that the impact of sea-level rise extends beyond the directly impacted counties due to migration networks that link inland and coastal areas and their populations. Substantial rates of population growth and migration are serious considerations for developing mitigation, adaptation, and planning strategies, and for future research on the social, demographic, and political dimensions of climate change.

Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 2011

The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4 • C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 mthe probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4 • C was * Author for correspondence ([email protected]).