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2022, MS Thesis
This thesis encompasses South Asia as an area of interest mainly focusing on the Indo-Pak conflict and its impact on the regional as well as global arena. Furthermore, a non-experimental research design is used while using neo-realism and power transition theory as a theoretical framework. The thesis focuses mainly on China's policies and the United States' abrupt inward turn which are both the consequence of factors represented in the variables. The critical independent variable is patriotism, which, in combination with China's and the United States' power trajectories, defines how their relationship will unfold in the next years. Hence, there is an ample reason to expect a soft landing as the world evolves from unipolarity to multipolarity. It has been about a few years since the United States and China saw their relationship deteriorate due to an increase in hostilities and a decrease in collaboration. Increased disagreement and strain in US-China security relations may be unavoidable. The United States and China are in the midst of a power transition that has significant ramifications for the balance of power in South and East Asia and for their respective national security objectives. As the power transfer progresses, it is likely that a great power struggle will increase emerging as a new cold war.
China and the United States are the greatest strategic powers of the world today, where China is rising but the United States still remains predominant. Both have their grand strategic visions to shape and manage the world or regional political and security architecture. South Asia, being located in a critical and important geographical area, with players such as India, Pakistan, and others, is factored in their visions. It gives rise to a different combination of alignments and orientations of the states of South Asia and beyond. A kind of power game, along with its tangible manifestations, also seems conspicuous. This paper attempts to develop a broad framework of such developments, along with ramifications, both in place and projected, in the political power games of the relevant actors in South Asia.
Vol. 2 No. 1 (2021): J. Peace Dipl., 2021
South Asian politics is currently marked by ever-enhancing power politics between India and Pakistan, which is exacerbated by the extra-regional predilections, particularly US and China, to the respective states. Against this backdrop, this research analyzes the security and nuclear dimensions of India-Pakistan power politics. Additionally, it holistically highlights various dynamics of Indo-US strategic partnership and Sino-Pakistan strategic convergence. The theoretical framework used is the concept of power politics to underlie the engagement of regional and extra-regional powers in pursuit of their realist goals in South Asia, while the type of research is exploratory. In the end, it is concluded that the extra-regional influences have been fanning the Pakistan-India contestation, causing instability in the region.
Contemporary International Security Studies literature relating to geopolitical turbulence emanating from systemic transitional fluidity affecting Southern Asia highlights Sino-US competition, Sino-Indian rivalry and Indo-Pakistani adversarial tensions. While the current strategic landscape bears particular characteristics, its evolution is rooted in post-1945 systemic restructuring. In the 'Indo-Pacific', that rearrangement was shaped by three key developments: decolonisation of European empires and the Partition of British-India into successor states founded on the bases of mutually-inconsistent ideational rationales, dominant-systemic polarisation along a capitalist-vs.-communist diarchy, and the renascence of China as both a communist and nationalist power seeking strategic autonomy within both the Soviet-led communist bloc, and the adversarial postWar geopolitical architecture being fashioned by the superpowers. Both India and Pakistan, often belying their declaratory policies, bandwagoned with external protectors with a view to advancing their conflicting interests. That pattern has recently been reinforced.
2020
The Indo-US strategic bonding is shifting the security dynamics of the South Asian balance-of-power in Indian favour. From the signing of 123 US-India Nuclear Deal to the facilitation in becoming a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), the US has clearly designated India as an instrumental element in the American grand strategy of devising a ‘new world order’. As a result, India has grabbed the opportunity of alleviating its status as a credible regional and global power. In this regard, the US tilt towards India is significantly paving grounds for a strategic imbalance in the South Asian region, thus creating challenges for Pakistan. Therefore, this paper argues that the growing bonhomie between the US and India is a destabilizing factor in the region which reinforces Pakistan’s fast falling into the Chinese orbit; thereby cementing the old friendship into a new strategic partnership. This dynamic certainly gives China and Pakistan an incentive to work together so...
SINO-US STRATEGIC INTERESTS IN POST COLD WAR ERA: A CASE STUDY OF ASIA-PACIFIC , 2019
The Asia-Pacific region blusters over half of the globe’s population and as residue of major powers centre including the main arteries of international economies like India, China and Australia etc. Due to its dynamism, there are plausible reasons that Asia-Pacific would emanate as the mother region in the coming days. Historically, with the concurrence of US, Japan and Australia, the concept of Asia-Pacific emerged which has legalized the US’ involvement in the issues related to East Asia. In plain term, Asia-Pacific region invokes Asia, Australia and West Coast of North America for its potentials to crop up as a galvanic force. Strategically, covering 22 percent of world land, Asia-Pacific is one of the important and eloquent regions that comprises three well developed Economic Powers of the World i.e. China, Japan and US. In addition, the region encompasses world's six largest ports and six vital Sea Lanes of Communications i.e. straits of Makassar, South China Sea, Lombok, Malacca, Ombai - Wetar and Sunda. Due to the US’ involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, Chinese managed to fill the vacuum and improve its economic ties with its Southeast Asian neighbours. China has the economic and technological influence all over the world with approximately 6 % average annual growth rate and an anticipation of taking over the economies of Japan and US by 2016 and 2039 respectively. However, rise of China coupled with its outreach to the global markets poses a consistent challenge to the US’ dominance hence emerges as a key challenge of 21st century to US’ interests at global and regional levels. As a result of which, US’ policy has been re-patronized towards Asia-Pacific for maintaining and expanding security network, strengthening the economic relations with her new and old allies and concurrently focuses on containment of China. In addition, US’ rebalancing has been claimed to strengthen bilateral security alliances with its allies, expanding trade and investment, promotion of democracy and human rights but China views the pivot as containment strategy and provocation act. Asia-pivot, a major shift in American policy shows that America has already started to calculate its options for dominating the region, both politically and militarily. US has been increasing its military components to reach to 60 % of total force ratio in Asia-Pacific region by 2020. In addition, US has been giving military assistances to Japan, Vietnam, Philippines etc in support of their territorial disputes against China. Amidst these developments, US-China engagement in Asia-Pacific and subsequent power transition have surfaced complications for regional states relations. Keeping in view the likely power transition between China and US, the difference in the Sino-US power potentials shall persist for coming 30 years but it will be reduced to some extent however, conflict cannot be completely ruled out as and when China attains power parity with the US. The rise of China was also examined in detail, providing an overview of how China’s role evolved in this regard and how the international community responded to this phenomenon. The perceptions of Sino-US relations are grounded in the intent and subjective understandings of each other’s interests and compulsions. These perceptions can easily determine how best the two states interpret each other’s actions in the wake of China’s rise and US Rebalancing of Asia-Pacific. In wholesome Sino-US cooperation in power transition and maintenance of friendly relations is the only option because why both the states should afford to engage themselves in conflict. In addition to adding new contribution to the existing body of literature, this research will help the readers to attain an understanding of the major issues of contention and convergence between China and US in the region. The contribution will be of significance nature in creating a framework within which Chinese and American regional policies can be understood and may serve as reference for policy makers and students of international politics.
Journal of Political Studies, 2014
The main focus of the article is on the Pakistan China security environment in the context of United States India strategic convergence and possible repercussions on the regional security particularly and global security as well. In this era momentous developments have taken place in the context of US-India strategic partnership. The United States is single super power in the world after the disintegration of the USSR. It is evident that the United States has short-term strategic targets as well as long term strategies in the regional and international politics. It seems that the United States is desirous to secure its protuberant and foremost status in the regional and international political scenario. United States have altered its policy towards South Asian order to achieve its core strategic intentions of having a dominant and leading status in the region in the backdrop of 9/11. The United States has restructured its security policy to accomplish its strategic objectives and has constructed its defense and military conglomerate with India. The United States and India have progressed to engaged egalitarianisms which is based on common strategic leverage in the region, political and economic gains. The designs and arrangements, United States and Indian developed cooperation is not of the same like in the cold war era between the stake holders but by using all the ways and diverse linkages, the United States is advancing its strategic policy objectives in the South Asia. This paper will explore the opportunities and challenges for Pakistan and China security environment in the context of these momentous developments in the region. The authors will also focus on the complicated security situation in South Asia to arrive at a logical solution.
Coleção Meira Mattos, 2021
The objective of this paper is to understand the upsurge in global conflicts, especially those involving the two main world powers: China and the United States of America. Aiming this, the methodology sought to put in perspective the theories regarding power transition and the geopolitical strategy of the two main (global) powers, China and USA. The objective was that, in this way, the article could indicate which one best fits the current context. The conclusion of the study was, on the other way of what is being defended by a great part of the specialists, the geopolitics of the 21st century is not reediting the bipolar system, lived during the Cold War, but going through a transition crisis, typical of contexts in which there is the dispute between hegemonic and other ascending power, as occurred during the decades before World War I. It remains to be seen how this dynamic is going to be processed in the 21st century.
This paper evaluates the impact of Indo-US strategic partnership on Pakistan's security using the lenses of balance of power and power transition theories. A theoretical evaluation through these contending theories highlights the significance of the subject as it draws same results from the both. Although these theories are considered opposed to each other, both reach at the same conclusion when applied to the Indo-US Strategic Partnership and its impact on Pakistan's security. The paper argues that power transition theory does not refute the balance of power theory in India-Pakistan context, rather it supports the latter. Changing the balance of power in South Asia is, in fact, an act of bringing transition. This analysis suggests that any power transition in South Asia shall disturb the balance of power in the region and may lead to war. The analysis, therefore, supports balance of power hypothesis that " if power balance is disturbed, it shall bring instability. " It also suggests that by changing the balance of power in India's favour, Indo-US strategic partnership shall bring power transition in South Asia, and would therefore be perilous for Pakistan's security.
Geopolitics, 2024
The U.S.-China rivalry has emerged as a defining geopolitical issue in the 21st century, profoundly influencing the dynamics of Asia and the broader global order. This paper examines the historical context, economic competition, military strategic posturing, and technological advancements that characterize this rivalry. It explores key scenarios for the future-ranging from continued rivalry and potential cooperation to the risk of conflict-while emphasizing the critical role of diplomacy and multilateralism in maintaining stability. The analysis highlights the implications of the U.S.-China struggle for influence, considering how it shapes regional alliances, impacts international governance, and affects global peace and security. Ultimately, this study underscores the importance of understanding the complexities of this power struggle and its significance for the future of international relations.
The ongoing violent conflicts in South Asia, the rising potential of a nuclear confrontation in the region, growing radicalization among the youth, and the presence of terrorist groups, must be addressed on an international scale; the events that take place there inevitably impose a danger and affect the stability of the rest of the world. South Asia remains one of the most polarized regions in the world. A successful approach for accomplishing such regional equilibrium needs to consist of constant and rigorous attention, conscious diplomacy, promotion of adequate educational programs, investment of substantial resources, and more importantly, a realistic standpoint. The development of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India are evaluated in this paper while assessing the interferences, good and bad, of the US, China, and Russia.
Stosunki Międzynarodowe, 2022
Strategic competition and rivalry between the United States and China has become a paradigm of international relations in the past decade. Central to this growing strategic distrust between Washington and Beijing is the tug of war between the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy and China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, the role of China's 'peaceful rise/ peaceful development' strategy and assertive nationalism characteristic of Chinese foreign policymaking in creating an atmosphere of tension and misunderstanding between Beijing and Washington have been largely overlooked. This paper, therefore, seeks to understand the relationship between the rise and fall of China's 'peaceful rise/peaceful development' concept, the emerging prominence of assertive nationalism in China's foreign policy making and a deteriorating US-China relations with deepening strategic mistrust between the two major powers through a comparativehistorical analysis of China's BRI and the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy. Rather than demonstrating China's commitment to its 'peaceful rise/ peaceful development' to the world, this paper argues that Beijing's offensive to defend China's national interests in a confrontational manner is an indication that an increasingly confident Chinese leadership no longer feels the need for reassuring the world that China's 'rise' is peaceful and non-threatening in nature. This could embolden Beijing to defy (if not explicitly challenge) the 'rules-based international order' upheld/ defended by Washington, thereby spelling the end of China's 'peaceful rise/peaceful development' strategy.
Journal of South Asian Studies, 2013
The emergence of nuclear factor in international politics has overwhelming transformed the essence of balance-of-power concept. This dynamic is an escalation of political dimension of balance-of-power and reduction of military aspect (hard power). However some realists argue that in world politics military and political both characteristics of balance-of-power indeed shape nation-states’ balancing approach against dominant players in a system. Therefore weak players get engaged with strong one stopping its opponent’s military threat and having deterrence capability. As a result, strategic balancing comes to light. As the focus of the study is concerned, this entire scenario can be seen amid two major players of South Asia i.e. Pakistan and India. It has been analyzed that the balance-of-power politics has long been troubling due to hard power imbalance between Pakistan and India since independence. Besides the influential role of superpower(s) in the theatre of South Asian politics has also been a great disturbing factor for regional equilibrium and widening hard power unevenness where the U.S. or (USSR in past) is/were trying to maintain global balance in Asian-oriented global politics by making dyadic strategic partnerships with regional players. As the strategic triangle - Pakistan-China-India - seems quite significant wherein Pak-China strategic relationship has emerged owing to one of the very basic and common Indian factor and China being the most adjacent player of South Asian region has played a role by creating a balancing aptitude in its relations with both India and Pakistan whereas the U.S. (as a sole superpower) could not do this. While changing dynamics in India and U.S. partnership regarding strategic balancing after civil nuclear deal, Pakistan and China both have also strengthened their 60-years old strategic relationship. As a result, the strategic quadrangle - the U.S.-India-China-Pakistan is getting eminent as a new dynamic of the South Asian balance-of-power politics.
International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences
Asia Pacific is a region with intricate scenarios. On the one hand, there is an unabated region-wide drive for economic development that has been pushing Asia-Pacific forward for decades. On the other hand, this region is troubled with, aside from many other conflicts, unsettled maritime disputes that have the potential to trigger wars between and among the Asia-Pacific nations. On top of these varied scenarios, there is powerful struggle between China and the United States over a wide range of vital geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic interests in this region. For better or for worse, the U.S.-China relationship is becoming a defining factor in the relations among the Asia-Pacific nations. The US is struggling in adopting right strategy and policy choices to deal with emerging China. Sino-American ongoing rivalry can be explained by several theories but the purpose of this paper is to analyze the power transition and the possibility of power transition in the 21 st century by viewing Sino-US competition particularly in Asia pacific region which is, to a gradual extent, influencing the future of global politics. In the future there is strong possibility of increasing shakiness in the Asia-pacific region because of Sino-U.S power struggle. As a result, the paper evaluates the impact of ongoing rivalry between China and US on Asia Pacific using the lens of power transition theory and investigates the factors behind US's policies towards the region.
The end of cold war had marked a beginning of new world order. China and India became significant actors for their gradual rise into great stature in international politics. The developments in international politics such as terrorism had posed threats and open economic policy created new opportunities. Those developments required cooperation among the US. China and India. The relations among the three nations had been conceptualized as strategic triangle following the realist school of international politics where US was perceived as the pivot actor. The objective of the study was to map the content of relationship among US. China and India through a historical perspective. Consequently, an attempt was made to predict the possible direction of this triangular relations and motives for such relations resulted in new type world order characterized by multipolar powers while United States remaining as the super power in the foreseeable future. The data for the study was collected through secondary sources and they had been descriptive presented to identify evolving trends of relations among the three nations. The study had concluded that Chinese and Indian ascendancy would displace US as the super power in the 21 st Century.
"For fifteen centuries, China and India prior to western conquests of Asia in 16th century were the world's economic and military superpowers. At the height of the Han dynasty in China and the Maurya dynasty in India, both affluent and powerful oriental countries traded with occidental's Roman empire, with remnants of the infamous 'Silk Road' as part of their commercial trades in ancient times.The past 'triumvirate' of China, India, and Rome's pax Romana in the past when translated in today's political dynamics in international system has the resurgence of China and India on the side with the United States' pax Americana as the successor of the western power's past glory. At present we live in a uni-multipolar world with the US remaining to be the lone superpower in terms of hard and soft powers but is now challenged by developing yet emerging great powers today such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) including the European Union (EU). More so, both leaders of these two continental Asian argonauts are pronouncing positive views in their re-emergence. However, Asian countries, particularly China and India, despite of their friendly pronouncements and policies toward its neighbors and with each other, have tendencies to realpolitik - a foreign policy based on pragmatic concerns and political expediency rather than ideals and ethics. Thus, as influential actors in the security dynamics of Asian and the world, they both focus on the balance of power among nation-states. Today and beyond, we will see revitalized China and India or 'Chindia' as the "new Asian drivers of global change" that are becoming global players that can forcefully alter the relationship between the industrialized and the developing countries. Key Words: China, India, Chindia, Structural Realism /Neorealism, Realpolitik, Good Neighborliness Policy, Look East Policy"
Contemporary Southeast Asia, 2023
Southeast Asian states face numerous security challenges that require the assistance of external partners. China and India, two Indo-Pacific powerhouses, could offer potential solutions but their relations with Southeast Asian states vary considerably. At the same time, escalating tensions between China and India increase the risks of their engagement with Southeast Asian states leading to greater polarization in the region. By utilizing the "4-C Calculus", which comprises cost, complexity, credibility and capacity, this special issue seeks to understand how Southeast Asian states evaluate China and India as potential security cooperation partners, and whether cooperation with both-together or individually-can help address the region's security needs. The articles in this special issue employ the 4-C framework to analyse five key security concerns: defence modernization; health security; the postcoup crisis in Myanmar; humanitarian assistance and disaster relief;
South Asia is very effervescent region in terms of its geo-political and geo-strategic uniqueness on the globe. India and Pakistan are two nuclear states in this region having conflicting and rocky relations. In the backdrop of the negative security externalities originating from US intervention in the region of South Asia, the hypothesis is that China is the only regional actor that has all the inducements and the capabilities to deal with the threats to the regional peace and stability. In South Asia, in terms of material physiognomies such as the regional delineation and its power polarity is blurred. By evaluating and investigating its security environment, this research study suggests how this dearth of clarity could be alleviated. India's role within the region is even more controversial. We found that in light of the regional disputes between India and Pakistan, China's role is probably the most critical for the regional security and stability.
Pacific Forum , 2019
India, often considered the natural leader of South Asia, is facing stiff competition from China.The recent tilt of the “non-nuclear five” South Asian states (i.e. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives and Bhutan) toward China has become quite visible as China has significantly increased its influence across the region through investment, trade, military ties, diplomatic and cultural initiatives. Meanwhile, the US envisages playing a more prominent role in South Asia by teaming up with India to challenge China and exert influence in the Indo-Pacific region. A key consideration in the US “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy” hinges on India’s influence in South Asia. This paper looks closely at how Chinese bilateral trade, investment, political and military ties with the “non-nuclear five” nations have evolved and how that may affect India’s ambitions in the region. Recommendations are offered for both the US and India on how they may retain their supremacy in the region despite an ambitious and resourceful China.
Jadavpur Journal of International Relations, 2011
This article attempts to explore the dynamics of great power penetration within the South Asian Regional Security Complex during the cold war period and how the patterns of penetration affected security interactions between the two principal sub continental members of the complex-i.e. India and Pakistan. It should be clearly stated at the outset that the exploration of the chief attributes of the complex and it's broad contours in this article along the lines indicated above, closely follows Barry Buzan's pioneering work on Regional Security Complex Theoiy (R.S.C.T) and the main conclusions of the study are framed in the light of the central theoretical parameters of Buzan's work. United States, erstwhile Soviet Union and China have been designated as Great Powers in the study.
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