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2016, Social Science Research Network
Using administrative data from Spanish Social Security, we compare the pattern and the determinants of individual unemployment durations and the stability of jobs found after unemployment before and during the recent crisis. We find particularly strong effects of the crisis on the hazards in the beginning of the unemployment spell. The groups hit hardest by the crisis are men, immigrants, older workers, and individuals with lower levels of education. The disadvantage of men is mainly due to the more pro-cyclical nature of men´s jobs. Decompositions show that the increase in average unemployment duration and the decrease in average duration of the new job during the crisis are not explained by changing characteristics of the individuals who become unemployed.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014
Before and During the Crisis * Using administrative records data from Spanish Social Security, we analyse the pattern and the determinants of individual unemployment benefit spell durations. We compare a period of expansion (2005)(2006)(2007) and the recent recession (2009)(2010)(2011), allowing us to determine the impact of the current crisis. In line with the duality that characterizes the Spanish labour market, we distinguish between exits to a stable job and exits to an unstable job. We estimate a Multivariate Mixed Proportional Hazard Model for each time period. We find similar effects of the crisis for stable and unstable jobs, which are particularly strong in the first year of the spell. Moreover, slight negative duration dependence is found, especially for stable jobs in the expansion period until the time of unemployment benefit expires. Individuals who are most affected by the financial crisis tend to be males, those aged 16-24 and 40-51 years, those living in regions with higher unemployment rates, individuals who are less qualified or work in manual occupations (particularly construction) and immigrants.
De Economist, 2017
Gender Differentials in Unemployment Ins and Outs during the Great Recession in Spain * The Great Recession has had a disproportionately negative effect on working men compared to working women in many OECD countries and led to gender convergence in aggregate unemployment rates. In this paper we seek the sources of this recent convergence by using Social Security records on individuals to study the determinants of unemployment ins and outs over the course of a whole business cycle, i.e. 2000-2013. We focus on Spaina country hit hard by unemployment increases in downturns. Our results indicate that unemployment outs are crucial in understanding changes in unemployment rates in Spain. Furthermore, the huge drop in unemployment outs in the recession, particularly for men, has led to unprecedented levels of long-term unemployment, which has come to account for 64% of total unemployment. Negative state dependence emerges as a key barrier to job access for the long-term unemployed and hence the rate of unemployment is expected to remain high for many years, even if there is a strong recovery.
Labour, 1996
This paper analyses the duration of unemployment spells and the possible incidence of unemployment insurance on job search behaviour and voluntary duration of unemployment in Spain. To do so, a longitudinal data set containing information on unemployment recipients during the period 1987-93 is used. Hazard rates and survival profiles are constructed for the cohorts of unemployed workers entering the benefit system at different points in time, and a logit model of the probability of leaving the system before exhausting entitlement period is presented. The results do not support the view that the unemployed tend to intensify their job search when benefits are near exhaustion.
We analyse the re-employment probabilities of almost 330,000 Spanish men aged 20-59 years who began a unemployment insurance (UI) spell between February 1987 and November 1991 using data derived from the national unemployment benefit administration database (SIPRE) and discrete time duration models with flexible baseline hazards. We show: (i) the level of UI benefits has a relatively small disincentive effect on re-employment rates; (ii) re-employment exit hazards increase as UI exhaustion approaches but, again, the effect is relatively small. (iii) Extensions to Unemployment Assistance eligibility lowered reemployment probabilities. Also (iv) there are clear seasonal and cyclical effects on reemployment rates, and (v) rates are much higher for those who enter UI from a fixed-term employment contract rather than permanent one, and (vi) for young workers. These results are consistent with other research drawing attention to the impact on unemployment of inflexibilities in Spanish labour market institutions, combined with low interregional mobility and reliance by many for support via their family.
We analyse the re-employment probabilities of almost 330,000 Spanish men aged 20-59 years who began a unemployment insurance (UI) spell between February 1987 and November 1991 using data derived from the national unemployment benefit administration database (SIPRE) and discrete time duration models with flexible baseline hazards. We show: (i) the level of UI benefits has a relatively small disincentive effect on re-employment rates; (ii) re-employment exit hazards increase as UI exhaustion approaches but, again, the effect is relatively small. (iii) Extensions to Unemployment Assistance eligibility lowered reemployment probabilities. Also (iv) there are clear seasonal and cyclical effects on reemployment rates, and (v) rates are much higher for those who enter UI from a fixed-term employment contract rather than permanent one, and (vi) for young workers. These results are consistent with other research drawing attention to the impact on unemployment of inflexibilities in Spanish labour market institutions, combined with low interregional mobility and reliance by many for support via their family.
Social Science Research Network, 2007
This paper evaluates the unemployment duration and labor mobility using data from the household surveys provided by the National Statistical office (INDEC) for the period 1998 to 2005. The paper aims to understand and explain the evolution and main determinants of labor mobility and unemployment duration, two of the main problems that labor markets present. Unemployment duration is studied in terms of welfare and its determinants by applying stochastic dominance and econometric techniques. Labor mobility is analyzed using conditional multinomial probit techniques in order to evaluate its evolution, the impact of a crisis and the recovery period, that Argentina faced over the period 1998-2005. We found that there was deterioration in welfare measured by unemployment duration especially during the crisis period. We found that human capital played a key role in the unemployment duration and labour mobility. Unemployment duration is higher for people with higher educational levels, which shows that less educated people have lower reservations wages; similar result was found for females and males. The labour mobility results show that more educated people enter easier to formal labor markets which changes during the crisis when their probability of entering to formal labor market reduces; this would suggest that more educated people tend to adjust their wages and push out of the market less educated people. The labour mobility patterns do not reflect inflexibility in labour markets. We conclude that the apparent dualityformal and informal-in the Argentinean labour market which seems to reflect differences in access to productive resources (human capital) outside labour market is the one that determines the integration into labour markets and later labour mobility of a big part of labour force.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003
Over the last quarter century, the Spanish unemployment rate has gone from 3.5% to 24% of the labor force, and then back to 13%. In this paper we describe this extraordinary evolution more in detail, discuss the main shocs and institutions behind it, and provide a set of policy implications derived from our analysis.
2011
This paper aims at evaluating the effect of the current economic crisis on household income and poverty in Spain and Italy. As data on 2009 income has not been released yet, we have carried out a microsimulation analysis using data drawn for the European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions Survey of 2007 and data of the Labour Force Survey of 2009. We propose a technique that is based on the imputation of transition probabilities into different labour market status as calculated on 2009 data on the data for 2007 and income simulation. Our results reveal a 3% reduction in equivalised household income in Spain and a 1.16% reduction in Italy. Despite this difference, for both countries the Gini Index increases from 0.31 to 0.32, suggesting that the Spanish unemployment protection system is more generous than the Italian one.
SERIEs, 2014
Unemployment insurance is usually found to show negative effects in the transition from unemployment to a new job. However, the extent to which workers' careers might improve or deteriorate as a result of the unemployment insurance system is not immediately clear. This paper addresses the effects of certain aspects of this system on employment stability by jointly accounting for benefits endogeneity, dynamic selection issues and occurrence dependence. The analysis is undertaken for a dual labour market, such as the market in Spain, where temporary and permanent workers differ with respect to numerous individual and labour market characteristics. We find that non-insured unemployed workers experience a greater rate of transition to employment than insured workers. But we also find that benefits encourage job stability for temporary workers not only by increasing subsequent job tenure but also by increasing the probability of entering into a permanent contract. Finally, we get that shortening the duration of the benefit entitlement period does not seem to lead to significant gains in overall employment stability, which increases at most by 4.3%.
2016
In this paper we evaluate the impact of the business cycle on participation in the Disability Insurance (DI) program in Spain in the context of the Great Recession, which has been particularly strong in this country. We follow two approaches. First, we use regional administrative data to estimate the effect of the regional unemployment rate on the number of applications, denials and allowances to the DI rolls. Second, we use longitudinal panel data to estimate the effect of the business cycle on transitions from different labor market states to the DI rolls. Our results show a pro-cyclical behavior of participation in DI during the years of the Great Recession. This is in contrast to the countercyclical response documented both for other countries as well as for Spain before 2008. We document some facts that partially explain why DI benefits have become pro instead of countercyclical during the Great Recession in Spain. Our results provide valuable evidence for policy-makers as they...
Applied Economic Analysis
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of the 2008 and 2020 economic crises on employment in Spain. Design/methodology/approach The authors perform a counterfactual analysis, combining intervention (interrupted time series) analysis and conditional forecasting to estimate a “crisis-free” scenario. These counterfactual estimates are used as a synthetic control, to be compared with the observed values of the main variables of the Spanish Labor Force Survey (EPA). Findings The authors measure the effect on Spanish employment of the 2008 recession and the ongoing COVID/Ukraine crisis and the speed of recovery, which yields a rigorous dating for the beginning and end of the crises studied. Finally, the authors provide estimates about which part of the employed and unemployed people was in furlough (ERTE) based on microdata provided by the Spanish Institute of Statistics. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no counterfactual studies cove...
2015
This thesis addresses relevant questions related to labour market transitions in Spain. Using administrative records data from Spanish Social Security and applying correlated competing risks models, the impact of the current recession on unemployment and employment transitions and gender differences in labour market outcomes are studied. The Spanish labour market is characterized by high labour turnover (particularly, to other jobs in the expansion period and to unemployment in the recession), occupational segregation by gender and different returns to the characteristics by gender. During the current recession, both the unemployment duration and the inflows into unemployment have increased and the wages have declined, especially for men (reducing the gender gaps), young and older workers, immigrants and those with low level of qualification. High level of qualification, working in larger firms and high technology sector are associated with lower unemployment and better job quality....
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2009
Journal for Labour Market Research, 2019
Since the beginning of the recession period in Europe, unemployment has greatly affected the young adult population. In this context, Spain is regarded as an extreme case, due to its exceptionally high youth unemployment rates. This article seeks to identify the determinants that have led certain groups of Spanish young people to suffer labour market trajectories with higher levels of unemployment and instability during the Great Recession than others. To do this, retrospective data from the 2012 Catalan Youth Survey are used. With these data and using cluster analysis, a typology of labour market trajectories is constructed. Next, multinomial logistic regressions are used to identify what individual socio-demographic characteristics and pre-crisis employment experiences are connected to these different typological career paths. Results show that the highly differentiated career paths are associated with different social profiles and differences in the presence of unemployment. Moreover, interesting differences among the most unstable career paths appear. For the most vulnerable social profiles the employment trajectory prior to the crisis seems to point towards the existence of an entrapment in low-skilled jobs that alternate with situations of unemployment. For those with a slightly better position their employment situation after the initiation of the crisis seems to have been impacted by their brief labour market trajectory before the crisis and their resulting work experience gap. which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
Working Papers in Economic …, 2007
In this paper, we have studied the employment and nonemployment transitions in Spain from 1996 to 2005. To do so, we have used a multi-state multiepisode duration model and a censored continuous-time Markovian matrix. By using the censored Markovian matrix, we ...
2011
The present paper aims to ascertain whether gender differences continue to exist in Spain"s working population. It sets out to obtain empirical evidence of the employment profile according to gender, quantify the extent to which self-employment or salaried employment is associated with certain characteristics (age, education, marital status and economic sector) and to analyse the evolution undergone during the recent economic crisis (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)). In the study multivariate analysis statistical techniques will be applied to micro-data from the Working Population Survey compiled by Spain"s National Statistics Office (INE). Results shows that significant gender differences in employment status are seen when this is disaggregated and that the economic crisis has had a negative impact especially in certain groups.
This paper evaluates the unemployment duration and labor mobility using data from the household surveys provided by the National Statistical office (INDEC) for the period 1998 to 2005. The paper aims to understand and explain the evolution and main determinants of labor mobility and unemployment duration, two of the main problems that labor markets present. Unemployment duration is studied in terms of welfare and its determinants by applying stochastic dominance and econometric techniques. Labor mobility is analyzed using conditional multinomial probit techniques in order to evaluate its evolution, the impact of a crisis and the recovery period, that Argentina faced over the period 1998-2005. We found that there was deterioration in welfare measured by unemployment duration especially during the crisis period. We found that human capital played a key role in the unemployment duration and labour mobility. Unemployment duration is higher for people with higher educational levels, which shows that less educated people have lower reservations wages; similar result was found for females and males. The labour mobility results show that more educated people enter easier to formal labor markets which changes during the crisis when their probability of entering to formal labor market reduces; this would suggest that more educated people tend to adjust their wages and push out of the market less educated people. The labour mobility patterns do not reflect inflexibility in labour markets. We conclude that the apparent dualityformal and informal-in the Argentinean labour market which seems to reflect differences in access to productive resources (human capital) outside labour market is the one that determines the integration into labour markets and later labour mobility of a big part of labour force.
2010
Our goal here is to explain the strikingly different response of Spanish unemployment relative to other European economies, in particular France, during the ongoing recession. The Spanish unemployment rate, which fell from 22% in 1994 to 8% in 2007, reached 19% by the end of 2009, whereas the French unemployment rate has only increased by less than 2 pp. during the crisis. We argue that labor market institutions in the two economies are rather similar, except for the larger gap between dismissal costs of workers with permanent and temporary contracts in Spain, which lead to huge flows of temporary workers out of and into unemployment. We estimate in a counterfactual scenario that more than one-half of the increase in the unemployment rate would have been avoided had Spain adopted French employment protection institutions before the recession started.
2015
The aims of this research are to assess the initial impact of the current economic crisis on poverty and social exclusion in Spain and to identify the most vulnerable sectors of society. We apply Probit models to Spanish Income and Living Conditions Surveys of 2007 and 2009 to analyze income poverty and financial function ings of basic material deprivation linking pecuniary and health aspects. Our results show an increment of poverty, above all, extreme poverty, and a worsening of the deprivation risk not only for those with a weaker position in the Spanish labour-market, but for employers and self-employed, as well.In addition, we found changes in risk factors such as educational level and age. These findings should be taken into account when designing the regulatory reforms of social policies and labour market regulations.
2002
In this paper we study the effects of unemployment benefit duration and the business cycle on unemployment duration. We construct durations for individuals entering unemployment from a longitudinal sample of Spanish men in 1987–94. Estimated discrete hazard models indicate that receipt of unemployment benefits significantly reduces the hazard of leaving unemployment. At durations of three months, when the largest effects occur, the hazard for workers without benefits is twice as large as that for workers with benefits. Favourable business conditions increase the hazard of leaving unemployment. At sample-period magnitudes, this effect is significantly smaller than that of benefit receipt. Do unemployment benefits lead to longer unemployment spells? We would expect this to be the case, since individuals will be more selective concerning job offers the larger their out-of-work income. Moreover, under certain conditions, standard job search theory predicts that increases in either the a...
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