The Dynamism of Mexican Exports: Lost in (Chinese) Translation?

In this paper, we use the gravity model of trade to decompose Mexico's export growth into components associated with export-supply capacity, import-demand conditions, and other factors. Some have argued that Mexico's recent sluggish export performance is due to China's expansion in global markets. Others have cited Mexico's inability to make needed economic reforms, which have hurt the country's competitiveness in manufacturing. Our results suggest that negative import-demand shocks associated with both China and the U.S. recession have contributed to the slowdown in Mexico's export growth. Had U.S. GDP growth not decelerated after 2000, Mexico's annual manufacturing export growth would have been 1.4 percentage points higher. Had China's growth in export capabilities remained unchanged after 1995, Mexico's annual export growth rate would have been 1.5 percentage points higher in the late 1990s and 3.0 percentage points higher in the early 2000s. We also examine factors that contribute to growth in Mexico's export supply capacity.

China & World Economy, 2015

The present paper expands on the understanding of the competition between China and Mexico in US markets. Using the OECD International Trade by Commodity Statistics covering the period 2002-2012, we undertake both relative-market-share analysis and constant-market-share analysis. Through comparison of market share changes at both macro and micro levels, we find that on the one hand China 's total negative impact on Mexican manufactured exports has been greatly reduced since 2007; on the other hand, China is increasingly aligned with Mexico in terms of its competitive position over the US market, consolidating its competitiveness in high and medium-to-high technology products and gaining market share in the US market, mainly at the expense of the most advanced economies. This changing pattern suggests the intensification of competition between Mexico and China, but also a potential for cooperation, with the enhancement of bilateral intraindustry trade as a result of different technology choices and specialization paths.

China has become an important global actor in the arenas of production, trade, and foreign investment. In 1948, China contributed slightly less than 1 percent to global exports; by 2013, it had grown to almost 12 percent. Has China's vertiginous trade growth come at the expense of other exporters or does it represent an expansion of new consumer markets? For policy makers in the so-called "emerging markets," this is most relevant since many have adopted the exportled model as their engine of development. The goal of this article is to add to the current literature on the effect of China's growth on Mexico. Combining elements of world-systems, race-to-the-bottom, and global commodity chain frameworks, I analyze the consequences of China's export growth in garlic. The evidence strongly suggests that China's entrance into this global market has had deleterious consequences for Mexico's production and exports.

2009

The most common statistic used in order to prove China’s negative impact on Mexico’s trade with the US is the share of US imports precedent from Mexico exporters. This approach suggests that China’s expansion in the US market negatively correlates with the growth of the Mexican exports. However, and contrary to conventional wisdom and the ad-hoc shift share approach, our analysis suggest that: 1) even when China displacement effect is not minor, the China expansion in the US market explains at the most one third of the decline in the rate of growth of the Mexican exports to that nation; 2) contradicting the shift share approach that target almost half of the Mexican sectors under the China threat, we localized that almost all the displacement (95 percent) occurred in two sectors, textiles and machinery; and 3) two thirds of the employment losses in the textile industry are explained by long run factors, such as technology, and just one third is due to China’s growth in the US market...

This article analyzes Mexican trade in manufactured goods at the subsector level for the period 1993-2013. The results show that underlying dynamic manufacturing exports is a high dependency on manufacturing imports, particularly of capital and intermediate goods and high technology inputs. This has led to important deficits in the trade balance for important manufacturing sectors. In addition, although the Mexican economy has had trade surpluses with both Canada and the United States, it has shown increasing trade deficits vis-à-vis China, Japan, Korea, and the European Union, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Key words: exports, manufacturing, nafta, China, international trade

Banks and Bank Systems, 2016

Since, in the NAFTA era, the Mexican economy is much more advanced in the manufacturing sector than those of other Latin American countries, Mexico competes directly with China for U.S. imports. This study empirically investigates the behavior of the Mexican peso/Chinese yuan, Mexican peso/U.S. dollar, and Chinese yuan/U.S. dollar real exchange rates to determine whether the exchange rate policies serve as contributing factors to the subpar performance of the Mexican economy. The empirical findings suggest that the Mexican, Chinese, and U.S. real exchange rates, over the sample period, prove consistent with predations of the purchasing power parity theory; therefore, exchange rate policies may not be a contributing factor to the poor performance of the Mexican economy

Portes: Revista mexicana de estudios sobre la Cuenca del Pacífico, 2016

The USA is the main trading partner of Mexico; however, Chinese exports to Mexico have increased their role in the international trade of the Mexican economy. The main exports from Mexico to the USA are based on intra-industry trade and are concentrated in the automobile industry and telecommunications. Mexican exports to China principally consist of inter-industrial trade and are related to comparative advantages and factor endowments and also, to a lesser extent, on intra-industry trade. The specialization of the Mexican exporting sector in the automobile and electronic industries has created comparative advantages revea.led in the Mexican economy. A robust least squares model was estimated which suggest that revealed comparative advantages and the pull effect of trading partners have a positive impact on intra-industry trade.

2009

2005

This article concerns Mexico's industrial policy and economic performance, focusing on an analysis of the structural changes associated with NAFTA that have occurred in the country's manufacturing sector. The purpose of the article is to improve our understanding of why the post-NAFTA evolution of the Mexican economy has been characterized by lights and shadows, with low inflation, low budget deficit and a surge in non-oil exports, and on the other hand a slower than expected expansion of economic activity and employment. The article also presents some implications of economic policy that are essential for formulating a new development agenda in Mexico by which the country can finally succeed in its endeavour to attain high and sustained economic growth.

2005

6 1.1. Mexico’s Socioeconomics Strategy Since the 1980’s 7 1.2. China’s Socioeconomics Strategy Since the 1980’s 9 1.3. Mexico and China: Selected Socioeconomic Variables 13 II. China’s Entry Into the WTO and its Effects on Mexico 14 2.1. China’s Trade Structure and Performance 18 2.2. Mexico’s Trade Structure and Performance 23 2.3. Chinese and Mexican Exports in the US Market 26 2.4. A Brief Case Study: The Yarn-Textile-Garment Commodity Chain