Housing demand: Quo vadis?

Journal of Housing Economics, 2019

The sharp rise in international migration is a pressing social and economic issue, as seen in the recent global trend towards nationalism. One major concern is the impact of immigration on housing. We assemble a comprehensive database of 474 estimates of immigration"s impact on house prices in 14 destination countries and find that immigration increases house prices, in the aggregate. The effect of immigration is larger at the province (state) level as it is at the city level. However, using data from the World Values Survey, we also show that attitudes to immigrants moderate this effect. In countries less welcoming to immigrants, house price increases are more limited.

Research Papers in Economics, 2018

The sharp rise in international migration is a pressing social and economic issue, as seen in the recent global trend towards nationalism. One major concern is the impact of immigration on housing. We assemble a comprehensive database of 474 estimates of immigration's impact on house prices in 14 destination countries and find that immigration increases house prices, on average. However, attitudes to immigrants moderate this effect. In countries less welcoming to immigrants, house price increases are more limited.

Beyond Home Ownership

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015

The United States is aging, and many baby boomers are reaching or will soon reach the retirement age of sixty-five. On the other hand, the Millennials, the largest generation in the U.S. history, has faced the problems of high rents relative to incomes and volatility in housing market. Given the shifts, we are again seeing growing debates about how these changes in age structure will affect housing and labor markets.

2015

he housing sector is large and significant in all aspects of human life, making the task of the policy-maker especially complex. Homes constitute the largest single land use in the ‘built environment’, they are generally the largest single item of expenditure in household budgets and the largest form of household wealth, and they are instrumental in our social networks and our psychological wellbeing. The scale and extent of the connections have complex impacts on, and are impacted by, both the demand for and supply of labour and the socio-ecological transition. The ageing of European populations, for example, will continue to influence the demand for housing in terms of location, size and services, which in turn will create jobs in construction, raw material acquisition and delivery, infrastructure (ranging from roads to medical services) and transaction activities (such as legal services, new furniture and fittings). The link between the geographical location of the family residen...

The paper explores the effects of immigration on the rates of growth of the population and labour force and on the age distribution and dependency relations within the population.

The Program for Research on Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population (SEDAP) is an interdisciplinary research program centred at McMaster University with co-investigators at seventeen other universities in Canada and abroad. The SEDAP Research Paper series provides a vehicle for distributing the results of studies undertaken by those associated with the program. ABSTRACT Simulation methods are employed to explore the effects of immigration as a control instrument to offset the economic and demographic consequences of low fertility rates and aging population distribution. A neoclassical economic growth model is coupled with a demographic projection model. The combined model is calibrated and used in a series of experiments. The experiments are designed to generate the time paths of a hypothetical but realistic economic-demographic system under alternative assumptions about immigration policy. The government seeks to optimize policy results in the model, according to a specified criterion function. The model is calibrated with Canadian data but some experiments are carried out using initial populations and fertility rates of other countries. JEL Classifications: E17, J11, J18 RÉSUMÉ Nous utilisons des méthodes de simulation pour explorer les effets de l'immigration en tant qu'instrument de contrôle pour contrebalancer les conséquences économiques et démographiques d'un faible taux de fécondité et d'une population vieillissante. Nous associons un modèle de croissance néoclassique à un modèle de projection démographique. Le modèle combiné est calibré puis utilisé dans une série de simulations. Ces simulations visent à générer des trajectoires hypothétiques, mais réalistes, de l'économie et de la population sous diverses hypothèses de politique d'immigration. Le gouvernement est doté d'un critère propre lui permettant de choisir la meilleure trajectoire résultante.. Bien que le modèle soit calibré sur des données canadiennes, quelques simulations sont conduites à partir de distributions de population et des taux de fécondité d'autres pays.

Journal of Regional Science, 2013

We estimate empirically the effect of immigration on house prices and residential construction activity in Spain over the period 1998-2008. This decade is characterized by both a spectacular housing market boom and a stunning immigration wave. We exploit the variation in immigration across Spanish provinces and construct an instrument based on the historical location patterns of immigrants by country of origin. The evidence points to a sizeable causal effect of immigration on both prices and quantities in the housing market. Between 1998 and 2008, the average Spanish province received an immigrant inflow equal to 17% of the initial working-age population. We estimate that this inflow increased house prices by about 52% and is responsible for 37% of the total construction of new housing units during the period. These figures imply that immigration can account for roughly one third of the housing boom, both in terms of prices and new construction.

2008

Abstract There are obvious reasons why residential construction should depend on the population's age structure. We estimate this relation on Swedish time series data and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development panel data. Large groups of young adults are associated with higher rates of residential construction, but there is also a significant negative effect from those above 75.

The Economic Geography of Cross-Border Migration, 2020

This paper provides a survey of the international evidence regarding the impact of immigration on local housing markets. A theoretical framework is provided that highlights the complexity of the housing market and the importance of distinguishing between the ownership and use of the stock of dwellings vis-à-vis the residential real estate market. Evidence from eight countries (