Foreign Fighters and Regional Security in Central Asia

2015

The competition between Al Qaeda and ISIL over the leadership of the global jihadist movement has already changed security parameters for the Middle East. Moreover, the presence of Al Qaeda and ISIL affiliates in the North Caucasus and Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge may pose a threat to the Caucasian states and Russia if worsening economic and social conditions ease the recruitment process of radical militants. This article focuses on the competitive struggle over resources and dominance between Al Qaeda and ISIL, and the implications for regional security in the Middle East and the Caucasus.

CONTEMPORARY MILITARY CHALLENGES, 2016

Alternatives. Turkish Journal of International Relations, 2015

Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) currently controls vast territories in Iraq and Syria with estimated population up to 5 million people. In June 2014, ISIS made a move to conquer Sunni areas of Iraq in provinces like Ninawa, Salah ad-Din, and al-Anbar. Until May 2015, there had been no significant military success combating ISIS. This paper argues that renewed Sunni insurgency in Iraq was indeed brewing for several years. ISIS campaign is described within the framework of the concept of insurgency. The text provides a comprehensive narrative of ISIS' and its organizational predecessors' insurgency in Iraq and Syria in the period of 2003-2015. As a conceptual background it utilizes a lifespan of insurgencies that argues that each insurgency must pass from proto-insurgency to large scale insurgency phase, and finally to a " conventional stage " when insurgency is strong enough to meet counterinsurgent in open battlefield. A lifespan of ISIS insurgency indeed reached tipping point and entered " conventional stage " in June 2014 when it assumed control over key Sunni areas of Iraq.

As the Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) launched an operation to target the Islamic State in the Hamrin mountain range in Iraq on the 11 April 2019, it is pertinent to examine the importance of the Iraqi state's involvement in governance and sustainable security in such isolated spaces.

This statement describes the underlying dynamics of the conflicts in Syria and Iraq and how these are likely to shape the future of the region and events beyond. It also assesses the threat posed by homegrown terrorists and by the return of Americans and other Western foreign fighters who have joined the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or other jihadist groups in Syria. These are complex and intertwined issues. 3 Recognizing that Russia's intervention in the Syrian conflict has further complicated the situation, the statement offers a range of U.S. options. These options raise a fundamental question: To what extent do we see security of the homeland dependent on continued and continuous U.S. engagement against terrorist foes in the Middle East and Southwest Asia? My statement today builds on my own previous testimonies and those of my RAND colleagues. 4 1 The opinions and conclusions expressed in this testimony are the author's alone and should not be interpreted as representing those of RAND or any of the sponsors of its research. This product is part of the RAND Corporation testimony series. RAND testimonies record testimony presented by RAND associates to federal, state, or local legislative committees; government-appointed commissions and panels; and private review and oversight bodies. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.

This essay details the difficulties in fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. A number of co-varying factors will be considered, including the defining structural arrangements of ISIL and the ease with which they can perpetrate attacks in OECD states through advantages like technological anonymity.

Studies in Conflict & Terrorism

Events in the Middle East over the past half-decade have had a dramatic impact upon regional relations. The tumultuous period framed as the Arab Uprisings initially brought hope before a period of despair, with political aspirations somewhat inevitably crushed by security calculations. While authoritarianism initially appeared to be on the wane, subsumed by popular discontent, the struggle between regime and society has resulted in the re-emergence of authoritarian rule across the region.

Given paper evaluates current alignment of forces in terms of war against ISIS on the territory of Syria and Iraq. It is focused on crucial strategic goals of leading actors, their interests in the region, and consequent formation of bilateral and multilateral alliances. On the basis of these characteristics, the paper provides four possible scenarios of development of war against ISIS in the next three to five years: peaceful settlement, status-quo, military defeat of ISIS, and closer cooperation between the U.S. and Turkey. In addition, possibility of creation of independent state of Kurdistan is researched and considered in the paper as a Black Swan, or a scenario with a highly unlikely probability.