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EUROPE 1992: CONFLICT OR COOPERATION?

Abstract

In this paper I evaluate the likelihood for conflict or cooperation among member states of the European Community by applying and comparing the theoretical arguments of institutionalism and the new economics of organization (NEO) against those of Realism. I present first the theoretical foundations of the debate and then apply these to the specific policy proposals embodied in the Single European Act. I also consider the prospects for European cooperation or conflict within the context of the historical development of the EU over time as well within the constraints of the international political economy. With this analysis I conclude that the prospects for European cooperation are enhanced by measured institutional development, the evolutionary progression of integration and the gravitational pull of economic interdependence. Economic interdepedence increases the incentives to private actors for cross-border cooperation and EC institutions can serve to empower national governments to manage and resolve conflicting domestic interests in favor of long-term strategic interests. Several factors are potentially problematic to EU cooperation. First, the large and potentially increasing number of members may increase procedural grid-lock with a frustratingly slow pace or inability for decision-making. Second, EU supranational institutions need to adhere to the principle of democratic accountability to insure widespread acceptance of their legitimacy. Finally, international politics and economics may pose potential threats to the process. The disintegration of the Soviet empire and Yugoslavia and a possible European or world-wide recession pose considerable obstacles to the EU. In sum, these pluses and minuses for EU cooperation should primarily affect the pace of integration but not the overall long-term direction. As evidenced by the controversy over the Maastricht Treaty, this pace should be expected to be slow and uneven.