The Art of Thai Diplomacy: Parables of Alliance

2020

The increased power of the US and the rise of China in Southeast Asia have triggered heightened economic and political assistance to the region. While China mainly focuses on infrastructure development, the US emphasises social and environmental assistance. Additionally, mega-regional development schemes have been initiated by China, Japan, and the US, including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy. Both the BRI and FOIP are rearranging the regional economic and political configuration by transforming the physical and structural relations between regional countries, China, Japan, and the US. Thailand’s diplomacy has been described as “bamboo diplomacy” because it “bends with the wind”. Such metaphoric description represents how Thailand, as a relatively small state, exercises its power within the international system. Located in the middle of mainland Southeast Asia, Thailand is now facing another challenge – to position itself as a regional hub. This means that Thailand is in need of both infrastructure development and financial assistance. In this regard, China seems to be a good source. Yet, if Thailand deepens its relations with China, how can it balance its relations with the US? This dilemma establishes Thailand as a “reluctant partner” for both China and the US. This paper aims to study how Thailand’s diplomatic relations with Japan, China, and the US have changed, and how Thailand should balance these power dynamics while making the most of the rivalry between these superpowers in Southeast Asia.

2021

Thailand, a long-standing defence partner of the United States and ASEAN's second largest economy, occupies a geostrategically important position as a land bridge between China and maritime Southeast Asia. This book, based on extensive original research, explores the current state of US-Thai relations, paying particular attention to how the United States is perceived by a wide range of people in the Thai defence establishment and highlighting the importance of historical memory. The book outlines how the US-Thai relationship has been complicated and at times turbulent, discusses how Thailand is deeply embedded in multi-faceted relationships with many Asian states, not just China, and examines how far the United States is blind to the complexities of Asian international relations by focusing too much on China. The book concludes by assessing how US-Thai relations are likely to develop going forward. Additionally, the work contributes to alliance theory by showing how domestic politics shapes memory, which in turn affects perceptions of other states.

Asian Social Science, 2014

This article examines the U.S.-Thai relationship through various changes, paying close attention to strategic military operations within the Kingdom and into neighbouring countries. Multifaceted impacts of American outsourcing and corporate expansion are discussed. Thailand's role in the War on Terror amid domestic political turmoil and global economic uncertainty draw questions of the value of the 20 th century relationship model. Controversy about undeclared wars within the United States supports argument that Thailand should further remove itself from American-led foreign wars. As the ASEAN partnership continues to play a more dominant role in Thai government policy, with regional concerns more relevant than transpacific issues, Thailand is urged to revise legislation to protect its own security and interests. Such a focus is expected to reestablish Thailand as a regional leader.

Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs , 2024

China's assertive rise triggers existential and discursive anxieties in the Indo-Pacific since 2017. The US rebalances, using strategies like institutional balancing (minilateralism) and discursive balancing (free and open Indo-Pacific). Thailand, a long-time US ally, hesitates to counterbalance China. Post-2014 coup, Thailand's military junta aligned with China due to necessity, persisting post-2019 elections. This article reevaluates Thai foreign policy under Prayut Chan-ocha, suggesting default hedging, not strategic hedging. Various agencies pursue diplomacy without a coherent strategy. The article unfolds in three parts. First, it examines Thailand's reluctance to embrace the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy, stemming from differing threat perceptions and bureaucratic politics. It then discusses Thailand's absence of a comprehensive Indo-Pacific narrative and its default hedging via military, economic, and ideational aspects. The article concludes by exploring the post-Prayut era's impact on Thai foreign policy.

Thailand in Comparative Perspective International Symposium 2016 (https://www.sydney.edu.au/content/dam/corporate/documents/sydney-southeast-asia-centre/sseac-thailand-in-comparative-perspective-2016-program.pdf), 2016

The research examines recent developments and policy-making process of Thailand to clarify the patterns of continuities and changes in Thai foreign policy and how they affect Thai policy approach in an effort to advance our understanding of state's foreign policy, particularly those of non-Western country, in our world still characterized by systemic anarchy, complex interdependence and unpredictable social-constructed changes. Conventional wisdom describes the history of Thai (city-) state evident of real politik and elitism, while the end of history belief supports claims on an increasing pluralism. The systemic changes politically after the Vietnam War and economically after the spicy Tom Yum Kung 2 crisis, further inspired by Thaksin's domestic and regional aspiration, suggests others about Thailand's emerging activism. However, Thailand's diplomatic and political landscape since 2008 indicates that none of these policy approaches can dominate Thai foreign policy. This research will, thus, look through the lenses of two-level game theory and constructivism to argue that Thai foreign policy is characterized by its (re-)definition as a middle power struggling internationally between the great powers' competition, domestically between elitism forged by entrenched values and pluralism influenced by democratization process. Incremental changes occur mostly from inside the circle of policy making while major changes are caused by structural shifts at international level, power leverage change at national level and the degree of leaders' activism at individual level. Certain political values play key roles in determining such changes. Keywords: Thai foreign policy, constructivist policy analysis, Thai national identity, Thai political values, elitism and pluralism.

Foreign Policy and Security in an Asian Century: Threats, Strategies and Policy Choices, 2014

RSIS Commentary, 2023

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s foreign policy, unlike those of previous Thai governments, is not seen to be bending with the wind, but rather as “hedging by default”. China’s economic attractiveness, US ambivalence towards the region, and Russia’s war on Ukraine have rendered Thailand’s long-established strategic posture untenable. To navigate the changing international circumstances, Thailand should adopt a smarter strategy of “leading-from-the-middle”.

European Journal of East Asian Studies, 2012

In the post-Cold War period, mainland Southeast Asia has been significantly marked by peace and stability, despite occasional bilateral tensions among neighbouring countries. Within this environment Thailand has been a primary advocate for various sub-regional co-operation initiatives since the early 1990s. Interestingly, these regional projects have mainly been Thailand’s own self-initiated version, in which Thailand acts as the main coordinator, sometimes bypassing broader regional entities, especially ASEAN. Conventional wisdom may explain this phenomenon by resorting to the economic rationale in Thai foreign policy. However, in some circumstances economic benefit is not a decisive factor considering associated costs. This article, therefore, proposes to use an ideational lens to reassess Thailand’s regional leadership by focusing on the role of self-perception/identity in determining Thailand’s foreign policy preferences. It argues that Thailand’s identity as a leading country in mainland Southeast Asia helps sustain its active role in sub-regional endeavours. The Quadrangle Economic Co-operation (QEC) initiative is examined here to show the intervention of Thailand’s self-perception in the endurance of its leadership in this regional initiative.

Thailand and the United States have mutually benefited from 200 years of relations (since 1818) that strengthened during the Cold War and Vietnam War eras through their long-term alliance, security cooperation and economic engagement, and eventual U.S. assistance to Thailand’s democratization. Though the United States was once tolerant of Thailand’s frequent coups d’état, there is a common perception that relations were significantly damaged after the military-led coups in September 2006 and May 2014. U.S. criticism led Thai state leaders to rebuke U.S. interference in Thai politics and question whether the U.S. remains a true ally and friend. This thesis questions these assumptions by systemically assessing and analyzing military, economic, and diplomatic sectors of the relationship from 2001 to 2019. It examines the effects of the coups through systematic analysis of qualitative and quantitative data to understand how these coups and other events impacted the relationship. The mai...

CSCAP Regional Security Outlook 2023, 2023