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Japan’s New Security Policy: Toward Regional Involvement at Sea?

2016, Strategic Security Analysis

Abstract

In less than three years, Tokyo has recovered the right to defend an ally under armed attack and the ability to cooperate with other countries on security issues without geographical constraint. A ban on arms exports that had prevented Japan from engaging strategic partners for decades has been removed. What does this revamped security architecture imply for Japan’s security policy? This analysis approaches this question from the perspective of Tokyo’s response to challenges in the South China Sea, where tensions are growing amid the rise of China. It shows how the Japanese government is pursuing a strategy of “offshore balancing,” hoping that the military assets of its regional partners can deter Beijing from taking destabilising initiatives. The analysis concludes that, depending primarily on the evolution of China’s behaviour, Japan may well become directly involved in the South China Sea in the near future.