The South Caucasus: A playground between NATO and Russia?

Central Asia-Caucasus …, 2004

Unresolved security issues in the South Caucasus have a direct and negative impact on the security interests of NATO and the U.S. They impede access to Central Asia and Afghanistan, threaten the security of needed energy resources as well as access to friendly allies in the Wider Middle East, and create an environment of instability that Russia can both exploit and perpetuate. Unresolved security issues there exercise a decisive and adverse effect on democratic reform, market-based development, and overall prosperity across the South Caucasus. Continuing shortfalls in these areas threaten to turn the region into a haven for transnational organized crime and even terrorism. This paper argues that the national security interests of NATO and its members in the South Caucasus, especially concerning the war on terrorism, NATO's obligations in Central Asia and Afghanistan, and the role of the Alliance in the Wider Middle East, have grown to such a degree that its interests would be significantly affected negatively by instability and unrest in the South Caucasus. The individual and collective interests of NATO members therefore suggest that a larger role of the Alliance in strengthening the security of the South Caucasus is warranted. This paper does not propose the inclusion of South Caucasus countries as NATO members, which is unlikely under any circumstances for many years. But it nonetheless considers NATO to be the sine qua non for security in the South Caucasus. It argues that the most promising, and indeed sole, means of redressing the "security deficit" in the South C aucasus is through the gradual extension of the widest possible range of NATO programs into the area. In short, it shifts the focus from the question of "To Be or Not To Be?" with respect to NATO membership to one of how to select, develop, and compound NATO programs that will, together and increasingly over time, transform the regional security picture overall. By this point the region will also have evolved to a point at, or near, the doorstep of both NATO and the EU. This paper therefore suggests that NATO, in its June 2004 Istanbul summit, asserts that the security of the countries of the South Caucasus is an integral part of the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. Specific NATO initiatives holding the most promise for enhancing South Caucasus security include the following: Regional Security in the South Caucasus: The Role of NATO vi vi 1) Exploring the possibility of creating a special format for NATO's dialogue with the three nations of the South Caucasus, on the model of those set up for Ukraine and Russia; 2) Exploring the possibility of creating a NATO Defense College in the South Caucasus, similar in concept to that of the Baltic Defense College (BALTDEFCOL) and building on its experience. 3) Greatly enhancing the number of regional officers receiving training through PfP in order to foster a cadre of officers benefiting from contact with Western militaries that, in turn, are able to share their knowledge and expertise with colleagues; 4) Raising the profile of the region in NATO's own hierarchy by appointing a political/military specialist as an advisor to the Secretary-General on the region; creating a "Security Working Group" under NATO in order to optimize security assistance efforts; and prioritizing the development of expertise amongst NATO's planning staffs on the IPAPs of the regional states. While this paper proposes an a la carte approach to NATO involvement as most promising to the interests of South Caucasus countries, it asserts that such an approach is impossible without a focused and strategic approach to the South Caucasus as a whole on the part of NATO. Central to such an approach is that the definition of NATO and U.S. interests and goals must be carried out initially without regard for Russian responses. Russia itself is in flux and its policies a half decade hence may differ from those of today, especially as they relate to former Soviet territories. If NATO and the U.S. demonstrate that their policies in the South Caucasus are compatible with Russia's legitimate security concerns (as opposed to political aspirations), and can even be supportive of them, it enhances the possibility that Russians not committed to zerosum thinking may gain influence in Moscow. Clarity by NATO in defining its own strategy, directness in articulating it, and flexibility in its execution are the hallmarks of any future success. The point of conjunction between U.S. and Russian long-term interests in the South Caucasus, and also those of Turkey and Iran, is the strengthening of sovereignties there, the progress of reform, and the development of sustainable modern economies that take advantage of regional complementarities. The policies set forth in this paper advance these objectives by creating a web of relationships and structures that strengthen the essential prerequisite: regional security. As such, they are not directed against anyone.

The South Caucasus is one of the most important geostrategic regions between Europe and Asia, a playground for many regional and global actors with enduring interests. These interests have been clashing through the centuries. Each actor endeavors to impose its rules and tries to capitalize on the geostrategic benefits of the region. This article analyzes the main aspects, challenges, and prospects of cooperation between the countries in the South Caucasus and Russia and NATO. The authors describe the competition for power and influence in the region, the "Old Great Game," the regional state of affairs, and possible effects of the Rus-sian factor on the South Caucasus-NATO cooperation. They illustrate Rus-sia's security interests in the South Caucasus vis-à-vis NATO's enlargement policy, outline the reasons for the Alliance's reluctance to engage in the region actively, and current and future prospects of South Caucasus-NATO cooperation. NATO's presence is said to counterbalance the Russian military presence in the region, but how is this managed without antagonizing the incumbent government in Moscow and what is its contribution to resolving the so-called "frozen conflicts" in order to maintain the security and prosperity of the South Caucasus? The combination of competition and confrontation has been designated as the "New Great Game," with clear similarities and differences vis-à-vis the "Old Great Game." The authors question whether a "New Great Game" currently exists and apply comparative analysis, synthesis, inductive, and deductive methods to come up with conclusive answers.

For Russia, the former Soviet Union’s territories are part of its sphere of influence. Russian officials warn that any location of a military bloc near its borders is considered as a threat to its national security. As Georgia and Ukraine advance in their aspiration for NATO membership, Russia takes measures to strengthen its geopolitical positions by weakening neighbors’ territorial integrity. The article aims to rethink the war in Georgia from the perspective of Russia-NATO relations.

Russkii Vopros, 2019

Nearly 27 years have passed since the establishment of relations between NATO and the three South Caucasus republics. However, over the years those relations passed different and difficult ways of development. Despite the fact that NATO cooperation with 3 countries started almost at the same time and in similar conditions, achievements of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are different. This paper reviews the development and the current state of the mutual relations. It also analysis problems and perspectives of relations between the Alliance and the three South Caucasus states.

Defense & Security Analysis, 2018

The Caucasus has been a major flashpoint of contention between NATO and a resurgent Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The rivalry saw the escalation of hostility in the region during the brief 2008 Russo-Georgian War where a NATO-backed Georgia challenged South Ossetia supported by the Russian military. In 2011, NATO officially recognised Georgia as a potential member, challenging Russia’s traditional sphere of influence in the Caucasus. Moscow says the Eastward expansion of NATO into the Baltics and to include Georgia as a member state is a method of containing a resurgent Russia. However, the former Soviet Republics of Ukraine, the Baltics and Georgia, maintain that Russia represents a threat to their sovereignty, as seen by the Russian support of the breakaway unrecognised Republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. A hostile rivalry between the Russianbacked Armenia and Azerbaijan, which is reliant upon NATOmember Turkey, intensifies the polarisation in the Caucasus.

What a ‘New European Security Deal’ Could Mean for the South Caucasus / 17th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group Regional Stability in the South Caucasus 4/2018, 2018

This paper sketches the historical evolution of the security environment in the South Caucasus since the end of the Cold War. It traces in particular the emergence of three independent countries in the region as full mem-bers of world community in the wake of USSR’s collapse. This article ar-gues that after the rise of Russia to world pre-eminence, today’s world is becoming bipolar again and the relations between super powers are more tenuous than they used to be during the Iron Curtain period. To that effect, a new Cold War period seems to be in the offing. Yet, the main conclusion drawn from this paper is that for small states in the South Caucasus the optimum security strategy is to strike the right balance between these two poles (Russia and NATO). As a result, with the assumption of the Russia-NATO partnership, the paper realizes that in order to bring harmony with-in the international security, specifically in the South Caucasus, there is a need for the two major players to work hand in hand

Caucasus Journalists Network., 2012

Interviews with experts, analysts, and political figures on topical issues of international politics and security are organized for reporters from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia within the framework of the project "The Security of South Caucasus and NATO". These interviews are published by the reporters in their mass media.

Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan have different hopes for the Atlantic Alliance.

Connections: The Quarterly Journal, 2015