The Recent Evolution of Mexico's Manufacturing Exports

2008

In this paper, we use the gravity model of trade to decompose Latin America's export growth into components associated with export-supply capacity, import-demand conditions, and other factors.

World Development, 2008

This paper analyzes the extent to which Mexican exports have penetrated US markets in recent years, and juxtaposes such an analysis with the performance of China. We find that Mexico's main non-oil exports are losing dynamism, and their relative share in the US market is either declining or growing slower than China's. This trend is a new one, and begins after China's entry into the WTO. A number of factors could explain these findings. These include: (i) the real appreciation of the real exchange rate of the peso relative to the US dollar combined with the trend toward undervaluation of the Chinese currency, (ii) the decline of public investment in Mexico, especially in infrastructure, (iii) limited access to bank credit in Mexico, and (iv) the absence of government policy in Mexico to help spur technological innovation and to strengthening its domestic backward and forward linkages.

Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2004

In this paper, the results of an export-led growth strategy accompanied by a trade liberalization policy implemented in Mexico are analyzed for various periods between 1978 and 2000. The input-output analysis is used to determine the effects of growing exports on gross output and on the level of employment. The results of this analysis allowed us to conclude that the positive effect of increasing manufacturing exports on production is limited and offset by manufacturing imports, thus displacing domestic production. The positive effect of exports on direct and indirect employment is not as important as that of domestic production. However, these positive effects of exports are accentuated by the North American Free Trade Agreement.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2019

This article examines manufacturing export determinants across Mexican states and regions from 2007 to 2015, paying particular attention to the role of FDI. The analysis considers internal and external determinants of manufacturing exports under static and dynamic panel data methods, obtaining three main results. First, the ratio of manufacturing to total GDP is the most consistent determinant explaining exports performance, regardless of the econometric specification employed. Second, static panel data estimations under GMM techniques suggest different sensitivity to FDI across regions, with the Mexico-U.S. border region observing the strongest short-term effect of FDI on manufacturing exports. Finally, using dynamic panel data methods, we observe a significant persistence and similar long-term effects of FDI across most of the regions on the exporting manufacturing sector.

Economic Systems, 2011

International Review of Applied Economics, 2001

In this paper, the results of an exports led growth strategy accompanied by a trade liberalisation policy, implemented in Mexico, are analysed for three periods 1978± 82, 1983± 87 and 1988± 94. The input± output analysis is utilised, to determine the effects of manufacturing exports on gross output, to measure the degree of the global integration of the economy and, in particular, to measure the integration of the leading exporting manufacturing industries to domestic industries. The effects of liberalisation on increasing imports and the displacement of domestic production by imports, in manufacturing, are also measured and analysed. The general results of this analysis allowed us to conclude that the positive effect of increasing manufacturing exports on expanding production is limited and offset by the increasing manufacturing imports displacing domestic production. The increasing imports are mainly inputs demanded by growing exports.

Mendoza Cota, J. E. (2016). US manufacturing imports from China and employment in the Mexican manufacturing sector. Cuadernos de Economía, 35(69), 583-614. Since 2001 the Mexican manufacturing sector has experienced a reduced rate of growth. This study estimates the impact of US and Chinese industrial activity on the demand for labor in the sector. A time series cointegration model is developed using data on industrial activity, Chinese exports, wages and the peso: dollar exchange rate. The results show that exports from China to the USA and manufacturing wages have both affected labor demand negatively, while factors such as US industrial production and the exchange rate encourage manufacturing activity.

This article analyzes Mexican trade in manufactured goods at the subsector level for the period 1993-2013. The results show that underlying dynamic manufacturing exports is a high dependency on manufacturing imports, particularly of capital and intermediate goods and high technology inputs. This has led to important deficits in the trade balance for important manufacturing sectors. In addition, although the Mexican economy has had trade surpluses with both Canada and the United States, it has shown increasing trade deficits vis-à-vis China, Japan, Korea, and the European Union, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Key words: exports, manufacturing, nafta, China, international trade

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2019

Since 2000, China has established its leading role in the world economy, while Latin American countries do not seem to have strengthened their role as exporters of industrialized products. Chinese economic growth poses a challenge for Latin American countries, particularly because of the exports of industrialized products. We explore the impact of China's exports performance in products with technological content from Brazil and Mexico, in the period 2001-2016. Our empirical study uses a twostage dynamic panel data model, and our results indicate that Chinese exports displace exports from Brazil and Mexico only when China first begins to trade with the partner markets of Latin American countries. In addition, the results indicate that Brazil and Mexico will face a possible loss of market share with their trading partners.

2005

This article concerns Mexico's industrial policy and economic performance, focusing on an analysis of the structural changes associated with NAFTA that have occurred in the country's manufacturing sector. The purpose of the article is to improve our understanding of why the post-NAFTA evolution of the Mexican economy has been characterized by lights and shadows, with low inflation, low budget deficit and a surge in non-oil exports, and on the other hand a slower than expected expansion of economic activity and employment. The article also presents some implications of economic policy that are essential for formulating a new development agenda in Mexico by which the country can finally succeed in its endeavour to attain high and sustained economic growth.