Decision Making on an Optimal Port Choice under Z-information

Intelligent Automation & Soft Computing, 2014

Decision making theories are based on decision relevant information much of which is uncertain, imprecise or incomplete. An important qualitative attribute of information on which decisions are based is its reliability. The concept of Z-number relates to the issue of reliability of information, especially in the realms of economics and decision analysis. In this study we suggest Z-information based decision-making method which is more realistic in comparison with the existing methods. An example of investment problem is used to illustrate the proposed approach.

Gulf Coast Port Selection Using Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis, 2019

In today's competitive global markets, ports play a vital role in global supply chain operations. A port selection model was developed to demonstrate the potential to aid shipping line companies with decisions to select the best ports in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Because port selection is complex, is dynamic, and includes multiple objectives, a multipleobjective decision analysis quantified the value of the various ports using industry data and an industry expert's knowledge. In addition, a corresponding cost model was developed using available cost data for each port. Monte Carlo simulation analyzed the uncertainties in the value and cost models. For the demonstration model scenario assumptions, the results show that the Houston port would be the best alternative for shipping lines in the Gulf Coast. The value model also identified opportunities for improvement for each port compared with the best West Coast port. The demonstration models show that port data exist to support the development of a multiple-objective decision analysis model and a cost model that can provide useful insights to port selection decision makers. Furthermore, these models can be easily tailored to support port selection in other regions by tailoring the objectives and measures to the decision-maker objectives.

International Journal of Systems Science: Operations & Logistics, 2020

Inland waterway ports are an integral part of a country's transportation system and the overall economy it supports. Though these ports support and contribute to a country's import-export business and transportation economy, little attention is paid, primarily on the characterisation of these inland waterway ports. In this paper, we develop a systematic, multi-criteria, multi-personnel decision making approach, referred to as stochastic Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), that can be used to characterise inland waterway ports and to identify the factors that contribute most towards a port's performance and overall utilisation. This robust method can successfully handle judgment errors, biases, and inconsistencies, while reducing the uncertainty associated with decision-making. We use the state of Mississippi's inland waterways system as a testbed to visualise and validate the modelling results. Results indicate that the Mississippi River ports demonstrate less capability over the ports located along the Tennessee-Tombigbee waterway, based on the criteria used as a part of this study. A number of sensitivity analyses were performed, including additional investments, augmenting dredging capabilities, and introducing new businesses, to reveal managerial insights about the selection of inland waterway ports in Mississippi.

2018

The Z-number concept is the attempt to model real-world uncertainty and relates to the issue of reliability of information, especially in the realms of economics and decision analysis. In this paper, we present an approach that can handle Z-numbers in the context of multi-criteria decision-making applying direct computations. In this paper we consider an Anаlytical Hierarchy Process based on Znumber valuations, taking into account the uncertаinty of the experts` opinion in estimаtion of the options. We considered a case of estimation of technical institutions with 7 criteria: campus infrastructure, faculty, students, academic ambience, teaching learning process, use of advance teaching aid, supplementary process and 3 alternatives: technical institutions.

Decision Making: Applications in Management and Engineering, 2020

In the paper is presented a model for selecting a location for a brigade command post during combat operations. Considering that this is a very complex model, which can be approached from several aspects, this paper is limited only to the criteria related to the construction or arrangement of the command post, respectively, the engineering aspect. The selection process is conducted using hybrid FUCOM–Z-number–MABAC model. The FUCOM method is used to define the weight coefficients of criteria based on which the selection is made. The MABAC method, modified by applying Z-number, is used to rank alternatives. The end results indicate that the application of Z-number in decision making includes broader set of uncertainties than standard fuzzy numbers, which is very important for deciding in combat situations.

The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics

Intra-regional container service operators are challenged to design regular and reliable liner services connecting regional ports at the lowest cost and shortest transit time while considering customer demand. This paper focuses on the selection of ports of call in regular intra-regional container services, an under-researched part of the container shipping market. A combination of decisionmaking techniques (i.e. Analytical Hierarchy Process, fuzzy link-based and Evidential Reasoning) are presented to assist intra-regional container service operators in selecting ports of call. The proposed methodology is empirically applied to container services between Malaysian and other nearby Asian ports. While Port Klang is the main gateway to Malaysia, the results show that other Malaysian ports should play a more prominent role in accommodating intra-Asian container services. This research can assist maritime stakeholders in evaluating intra-regional port-to-port liner service configurations. Furthermore, the novel mix of decision-making techniques complements and enriches existing academic literature on port choice and liner service configuration.

Abstract Seaports are considered as gateways to international trade by all maritime nations. The modern and equipped seaports in this era are craving to attract more ships and benefit from greater throughput. Even in developing maritime countries, to maximise the seaport’s revenue and at the same time making the port more appealing to both shipowners and shippers, these countries are obliged to develop their seaports and improve the quality of their services. This, in turn, will enhance the efficiency and productivity of the port through serving the country’s and neighbouring landlocked nations’ (if any) shipping demands. This also has given rise to a reasonable and sometimes cruel competition among ports. The creation of competitive environment among seaports (particularly, among homogenous port providing similar services) has made the phenomenon of ‘port selection’ a complicated decision-making task. Port selection decision is a process that requires consideration of many importan...

Complex & Intelligent Systems, 2020

As the generalization of the classical fuzzy number, the concept of Z-number introduced by Zadeh indicates more ability to depict the human knowledge and judgments of both restraint and reliability as an order pair of fuzzy numbers. In indeterminacy and inconsistent environment, a neutrosophic set is described by the truth, falsity, and indeterminacy degrees, but they lack measures related to reliability. To describe the hybrid information of combining the truth, falsity and indeterminacy degrees with their corresponding reliability degrees, this paper first proposes the concept of a neutrosophic Z-number (NZN) set, which is a new framework of neutrosophic values combined with the neutrosophic measures of reliability, as the generalization of the Z-number and the neutrosophic set. Then, we define the operations of neutrosophic Z-numbers (NZNs) and a score function for ranking NZNs. Next, we present NZN weighted arithmetic averaging (NZNWAA) and NZN weighted geometric averaging (NZNW...

International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process

The demand for talented labor to serve the maritime logistics, particularly in port operations, is growing as the industry expands globally. This requires professional competency in terms of manpower and skills that must be developed effectively. Furthermore, considering the harm done to the industry from the COVID-19 pandemic, capable professionals in port management are a crucial part to reviving the business and its long-term growth and viability. This study explores the criteria for the needed talent from the perspective of port logistics experts using the following multicriteria decision making (MCDM) approaches: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Preference Ranking Organization System Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE). The objective of this study is to identify the important criteria for personnel performance evaluation in the port marine logistics industry. In order to determine the pe...

Expert Systems with Applications, 2012

As sea ports and terminals are valuable assets, in today's uncertain and complex environment further refinements are needed to assess risks and prioritise protective measures for these critical pieces of logistics infrastructure. The major problem that port professionals (e.g. port risk managers and port auditors) are facing is the lack of an appropriate methodology and evaluation techniques to support their risk management (RM) cycle. Therefore in response to the uncertainties and to provide continuous risk control assurance in port industry, this paper uses fuzzy set theory (FST) to describe and evaluate the associated risk factors within the ports and terminals operations and management (PTOM). An evidential reasoning (ER) approach is employed to synthesise the information produced. These processes constitute a decision support framework that will be used to conduct port-to-port risk evaluations or to assess a whole port's and terminal's overall risk level in order to facilitate continuous improvement strategies. The proposed framework along with a generic methodology and a risk evaluation model is tested by a case study. The case study analyses pieces of three Southern Iranian ports by using an illustrative operational risk hierarchy. The sensitivity analysis carried out in this paper prove pieces of the applicability of the proposed methodology and model for risk evaluation of the sea ports and terminals in real situations.

2013

Aim of This research is a Strategic analysis of seaports using multiple-criteria decision-making methods. At first, the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of Iranian seaports has been extracted from literature. Then, with respect to the importance concluded from LIKRET questionnaire distributed between experts (taking the views of the experts and specialist), five high importance factors of each strategic groups have been chosen and used in ANP analysis. When, all pricewise comparison have been done, the global weights of each factor calculated and then, four strategy alternatives have been determined with respect to the importance of each TOWS factors. Finally, after final calculation, the highest priority is assigned the SO strategy (Development of port and maritime transport facilities, utilizing modern technologies to develop transit trade in Iranian ports.), The ST strategy (Development of the trade, marketing, promotion and advertisement of transit corridors (Nor...

2021

The paper is devoted to the problem of multi criteria decision making under linguistic uncertainty. Information of different approaches for modeling linguistic uncertainty have been analyzed. The concept of z-numbers proposed by L. Zadeh have been presented. Z-number is presented as cortege of two fuzzy number A and B, where A is analyzed factor, B is reliability of A assessment. The method of conversion z-numbers into generalized fuzzy numbers have been applied. As test have been used server selection problem. As decision making model have been used weighted average method. All calculations and results are presented.

Journal of Transportation Management, 2011

The accelerated globalization of logistics activities over the last several decades has spurred a rapid expansion of port facilities all cross the world. However, the recent slowdown of international trade, coupled with a global financial crisis, has created an on-going glut of international port facilities throughout the world. Although the abundance of port facilities provides more transshipment options for carriers and shippers, it makes the port selection decision more complex and difficult. To cope with this new set of challenges, this paper proposes a hybrid data envelopment analysis (DEA)/ analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model that is designed to identify factors specifically influencing transshipment port selection, evaluates the extent of influence of those factors on a transshipment port selection decision, and then determines the most critical ones among various factors. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed hybrid DEA/AHP model, major container hub ports in Far-E...

Sustainability

From a scientific viewpoint, as well as from the perspective of navigation practice, it is clear that the Adriatic Sea feeder service is relatively underdeveloped. Hence, the objective of this study is to suggest a model for selecting the hub port and to optimize the network of seaports engaged in the feeder service. Accordingly, an appropriate hub port has been identified through the methods of multi-criteria decision making and expert assessment, and the optimum shipping route has been calculated by applying the travelling salesman algorithm (TSA). In order to analyze whether there is a possibility of obtaining better optimization results, an integration of a sub-hub port system is suggested. Optimization has been achieved by applying a minimum spanning tree algorithm (MST) and a combination of these algorithms. The proposed methodology for selecting the hub port, sub-hub port and optimizing the feeder network can be implemented globally. The practical application of the achieved ...

Applied Soft Computing, 2015

Sea ports play a significant role in the development of a modern economy. The Baltic Sea is an arterial transport corridor between Eastern and Western Europe. There is need to develop a deep-water sea port in the Klaipeda region to satisfy economic needs. This problem involves a multitude of requirements and uncertain conditions that have to be taken into consideration simultaneously. Numerous studies have been designated for the resolution of similar problems by employing multi-criteria as an aid. This paper proposes an integrated multi-criteria decision-making model to solve the problem. The backbone of the proposed model consists of a combination of Analytic Hierarchy (AHP) and Fuzzy Ratio Assessment (ARAS-F) methods. This model is presented as a form of decision aiding that could to be implemented when regarding any specific port or a like site selection.