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"After 24 February 2022: Imagining South Caucasus Security"

2023, RSSC SG SGI 24

This Study Group Information booklet gathered the papers and policy recommendations from the 24th workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group on Regional Stability in the South Caucasus (RSSC SG), held in Reichenau/Rax (Austria), on 03–06 November 2022. This workshop addressed “After 24 February 2022: Imagining South Caucasus Security”. February 24, 2022, will remain a landmark in European history: it is the date when Russian troops massively marched over the Ukrainian borders thereby crashing the basic principles of the OSCE-based security system. NATO and the EU have strongly reacted against the Russian war in Ukraine. More specifically, the EU has started to implement rounds of sanctions against Russia, and granted candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova, while conditionally promising a similar status to Georgia. Experts have long ago warned that the largest geopolitical risk stemming from the new pattern of “balance of power” conflict management in the South Caucasus was that the unresolved conflicts might end up entangled with the ongoing Russia-West geopolitical confrontation. Indeed, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and the ensuing Russia-West hybrid and economic wars, threatened the current geopolitical structure and arrangements in the South Caucasus, possibly leading into inherent geopolitical choices of the regional states; cancelled the prospects for cohabitation of the European and the Eurasian integration processes; and started to create geopolitical roadblocks to regional cooperation and infrastructure connectivity. In response, the RSSC SG deployed all its resources and efforts in attempting through its humble means avoiding a further East European conflagration. Now that the geopolitical collision which had been feared has come to pass, the Study Group turned its attention to what type of future, and what type of security would benefit the South Caucasus. For the first time in many years, this workshop considered also points of view which were not strictly geographic from the South Caucasus, but encompassed Ukraine and Republic of Moldova.