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Pakistan is on the clock. “A fast-expanding Islamic insurgency…threatens to devour the country,” wrote The New York Times this month. The 175 million-strong nation has been on deathwatch since at least February, when The Atlantic Council sounded the alarm that Pakistan was headed for turbulence within twelve months. Recently, General Petraeus’s advisor shortened the time frame to within six months. “We could see the collapse of the Pakistani state,” said David Kilcullen. “Al Qaeda acquiring nuclear weapons, an extremist takeover—that would dwarf everything we’ve seen in the war on terror today.”

Middle East, 2007

Journal of International and Global Studies, 2012

Picking up Ahutosh Misra and Michael E. Clarke's edited volume, one is first struck by the cover image of a demonstration featuring gun-toting Pakistani youth and bearded men, with banners held aloft against an overcast sky. The image is one that has been popularized by mainstream media due to the central place that Pakistan has come to occupy in what is known as the "War on Terror." Coupled with the title of the book, the image draws the readers' attention to the instability of Pakistan and the lurking threat of its collapse. Yet, if one looks carefully at the image on the cover, the faces of those youth, with guns held high, are striking for their widegrinned smiles, as if they are posing for the camera, trying to appear angry and tough but unable to hold back their light-hearted laughter. The discrepancy between what the image on the cover intends to portray and how the youths in the photograph may perceive themselves is reflective of a broader paradox in which the security threat Pakistan poses is a presumed truth, regardless of not only the ways in which the U.S. has "created" this truth but also the ways in which the people of Pakistan may perceive their own involvement in the "War on Terror." However, seeing that this edited volume is a result of a three-day conference organized by the Griffith Asia Institute and held in Brisbane, Australia in November of 2009, where "security experts" from Pakistan, India, Australia, and the United States addressed "some of the most pressing challenges facing the country," it is not surprising that such paradoxes are not addressed in the text (p. xvi). While the "mediatization" of Pakistan's role in the "War on Terror" is not addressed, Misra and Clarke have set out to pull together a series of papers that do address the domestic, regional, and international challenges facing Pakistan. In the preface, they begin by pointing to the 2.5 per cent GDP growth rate, double-digit inflation rate, and US$56 billion in foreign debt. They write that there is unanimous recognition that the failure of the state would have devastating consequences for international security "and must be prevented at all costs." At the same time, the picture that emerges from the essays is that while Pakistan does face significant challenges, the state is unlikely to collapse. The first five of the book's twelve chapters focus on Pakistan's domestic sphere. Ashutosh Misra begins with a look at the interplay in Pakistan between the three forms of government (FOG): military dictatorship, democracy, and Islamism. Using a stability-instability model in which these three forces compete with each other and engage in co-option, he argues that the interplay between these three forms of government lies at the core of Pakistan's political instability. The author suggests that for the sake of Pakistan's stability, this jostling among political parties must cease; still, he acknowledges that "this may only be possible when one of these FOGs becomes self-reliant and does not have to align with the other two in order to stay in power" (p. 3). Misra concludes his essay by pointing to developments within Pakistan's judiciary system and by asserting that such developments reflect positively on the future of democracy in Pakistan. The conclusion of the first chapter provides a fitting transition to the excellent second chapter by Tasneem Kausar. Kausar focuses on the Pakistani judiciary system during the 2007 lawyers' movement and provides a helpful historical overview of the Pakistani Supreme Court and its historic role in the development of democracy in the country. Underscoring the historical significance of the strides made by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry in helping the court establish "its own identity, [secure] its legitimacy and [win] its independence" (pp. 28, 32),

2011

Pakistan, a nation of 185.5 million people and a neighbor to Afghanistan, India and China -- in other words, a country of paramount strategic importance -- is in danger. Unlike other failed states, both a democratic government and a semblance of civilian infrastructure remain intact, and yet the nation is ranked #10 on the 2010 Foreign Policy and Fund for Peace's Failed States Index. Out of the 12 axioms that govern the index, Pakistan scores especially poorly on 'Security Apparatus,' 'Factionalized Elites,' 'Group Grievances,' and 'External Intervention.' A truly failed Pakistani state has grave implications for the international community. In addition to posing terrible physical, economic and humane costs to Pakistani society and citizenry, which constitutes the sixth-most populous nation in the world, a full-blown failure will surely lead to an explosion in militancy that places destabilizing pressures on sensitive neighboring countries. In this paper, I present a reform strategy to overhaul the country's political and economic stability and ensure security, while building on the country's robust elements. Some priorities of this approach are: i) the immediate provision of necessary services and security to disenfranchised groups such as women, minorities and rural peoples, ii) better enforcement of property rights to promote economic development, iii) increased transparency and accountability while reducing bureaucracy, iv) reformation of rules currently governing the security arms of government, v) improving communication between various branches of the state and iv) expanding access low-cost technological developments such as mobile phones in ways that can both empower the Pakistani people and reinforce the pursuit of institutional reform. The rules of the state must change to better reflect the nature of Pakistani society. I first express the policy goals of this strategy and briefly explain the ideology behind the strategy. I then provide a brief history of the nation, survey relevant statistics and identify key players. I will elaborate in detail the challenges facing Pakistan, and the questions we must consider when dealing with these challenges. I finally deliver my proposals to achieve each one of these policy goals, as well as my plans for their funding and implementation. I conclude with an overview of the anticipated effects of a fully-implemented strategy, and some finishing thoughts.

Milken Institute Review , 2005

Contemporary South Asia, 2008

My Chapter in the volume titled Demography in South Asia: Implications lor Regional and Global P olitical Narratives, Edited by M A L L IK A JOSEPH, Sponsored by the Australia India Institute. This chapter addresses the challenges faced by Pakistan in terms of demography and how the accumulating of failures since the 1970s has left the nuclear-armed country with a dangerous imbalanced economy and demographic profile with profound implications for regional and global stability. Employing a historical approach, the chapter contends that failure to draw lessons from the past and an excessive regard for 'narrative' oriented delusions have led Pakistan to the point where it faces a demographic debacle rather than being in a position to reap a demographic dividend.

Security Nexus, 2005