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Demografska i sociajlna dimenzija starenja starih u Srbiji

Abstract

Th ree of the most prominent demographic processes in the today’s world are low birth rate, extending life expectancy and population ageing, which is consequence of fi rst two. Th e aim of this paper is to shed some new light on process of aging of the oldest old, who are defi ned as population older than 80 years. Special attention is given to the diff erent approaches in defi ning oldest old, such as biodemographic, functional, gerontological and demographic approach. Number and share of oldest was rising slowing in the past, and regional diff erences in the diff erent parts of the world was always apparent. Africa always was and will be last in the number of oldest people, and one of the reasons is certainly HIV and AIDS. On the other hand, Europe and North America always had and will have greatest number and share of oldest old. Share of the oldest population in Serbia had fastest growth, when compared with other population groups. In last half a century, their number nearly tripled. First time after Second World War, the proportion of oldest old dropped compared to the previous census, and probable reason is methodological change. Absolute number of oldest in Serbia grew rapidly during intercensal period between 2002. and 2010, according to the population estimates, there were 258.629 people older than 80 years in Serbia (without Kosovo and Metohija). Population projection show continuality in this increase, and based on medium variant for 2032. we can expect 5.37% of total population to be older than 80 years. In addition, it should be noted that clear sex structure asymmetry is plausible, since there will be 4.40% of oldest old male and 6.31% of female.Th is trend will have signifi cant impact on diff erent social systems, especially when it comes to the population health, economic status and wellbeing. Larger number of dependent population itself in the future rises question concerning generational equity, health issues, role of NGOs, gender equality etc.