Papers by Maurizio Bussolo
This paper assesses the potential impacts of the removal of agricultural and other trade distorti... more This paper assesses the potential impacts of the removal of agricultural and other trade distortions using a newly developed dataset and methodological approach for evaluating the global poverty and inequality effects of policy reforms. It finds that liberalization of agriculture would increase global extreme poverty (US$1 a day) slightly and by almost 1 percent if other goods trade is also liberalized; but the number of people living on less than $2 a day would fall by almost 1 percent. Beneath these small aggregate changes, most countries witness a substantial reduction in poverty while South Asia -where half of the world's poor reside -would experience an increase in extreme (but not moderate) poverty incidence due to high rates of protection afforded to its unskilled labor-intensive agricultural sectors. The distributional changes also are projected to be mild, but again exhibit a strong regional pattern: inequality falls in Latin America, which is characterized by high initial inequality, and rises in South Asia, has relatively low income inequality.
The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 2017
Using household data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, this paper assesses how agi... more Using household data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, this paper assesses how aging affects saving. To overcome a systematic bias against the life-cycle hypothesis of survey data, the paper estimates how the age profile of saving changes when the micro data are corrected to account for the contribution to pensions (as additional saving) and receipt of benefits from pensions (as dissaving). With these corrections, the Russian data support the life-cycle hypothesis. A small decline in the aggregate saving rate, because of aging, can thus be expected. However, since aggregate saving rates result from a combination of age and cohort effects, this decline may not be significant. When extrapolating the rising trends of the cohort effect, the fact that younger generations are earning and saving more than older generations at the same age, the projection shows a growing aggregate saving rate. Changes in saving of future cohorts, for example because of changes in the growth rate of the economy or because of reforms in pension systems and entitlements, can affect the aggregate saving rate even more than aging.
Economy & Environment, 2002
This chapter offers a quantitative analysis of linkages between economic activity and the environ... more This chapter offers a quantitative analysis of linkages between economic activity and the environment in Morocco, specifically evaluating the impact of independent and coordinated trade and environmental policies. The Moroccan trade and environment model developed for this analysis has three features of particular relevance (Bussolo and Roland-Hoist 1994; Bussolo, Roland-Hoist, and van der Mensbrugghe 1995). First, it embodies a high
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper presents an overview of the most recent trade policy reforms in Colombia and a brief a... more This paper presents an overview of the most recent trade policy reforms in Colombia and a brief analysis of their potential effects on this country's trade flows. This set the stage for the main objective of this paper: a preliminary general equilibrium assessment of the economic effects of Colombia's hypothetical accession to the North American Free Trade Agreement. The results indicate that such an arrangement, dubbed here NAFTA+, has significant implications for Colombia, but very limited effects upon the NAFTA incumbents, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. This follows intuitively from the size and proximity of the participating economies, but the sectoral and employment adjustments in Colombia are complex and would be difficult to anticipate from heuristic, partial equilibrium, or aggregate analysis. Generally speaking, Colombia would be a significant beneficiary of a NAFTA+ agreement, but the ensuing adjustments intensify traditional patterns of comparative advantage for this economy and, absent other co-ordinated policies, might undermine modernisation and sustainable growth. These results have implications for many NAFTA aspirants, but should not be generalised too freely. Each prospective entry should be evaluated by the same detailed empirical analysis as it is proposed for the Colombian case.
The progress on many Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Honduras lags behind other countries ... more The progress on many Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Honduras lags behind other countries in Latin America, and, if current trends continue, none of the MDGs are likely to be reached by 2015. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model extended to include explicit 'production functions' for MDGs (the MAMS model), a Business-as-Usual (BaU) scenario is contrasted with several alternative scenarios. The BaU case shows only modest improvements in the poverty, education, health, and water-sanitation MDGs, despite assuming per capita growth rates well above the past decade averages and significant expansion of public provision of social services. Our simulations demonstrate that reaching the MDGs will require public expenditure in related service categories to more than double from business-as-usual levels, although significant cost savings are likely to be realized from various synergies across the MDGs.
This chapter offers a quantitative analysis of linkages between economic activity and the environ... more This chapter offers a quantitative analysis of linkages between economic activity and the environment in Morocco, specifically evaluating the impact of independent and coordinated trade and environmental policies. The Moroccan trade and environment model developed for this analysis has three features of particular relevance (Bussolo and Roland-Hoist 1994; Bussolo, Roland-Hoist, and van der Mensbrugghe 1995). First, it embodies a high
Developing Economies, 2008
Linking a global computable general equilibrium model with household surveys of Brazil, Mexico, C... more Linking a global computable general equilibrium model with household surveys of Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Chile, this paper estimates the initial impacts on the poor of regional and multilateral trade liberalization scenarios. This approach combines the advantages of using general equilibrium consistent changes in factor and good prices with the detailed information on household endowments and preferences provided by the surveys. Furthermore this methodology allows to decompose the total effect on poverty into growth and inequality components. Results show that due to their different initial positions in terms of trade protection, economic structure and poverty levels, the impacts on poverty are quite dissimilar across the four countries studied here, and that is also the case when growth and distributional effects are considered separately. The detailed analysis shows that, even when the aggregate poverty effects are closer, these result from diverse effects of opposite sign that can only be captured by accounting for the full heterogeneity in the household data. Such a richer analysis of the poverty impact may have implications for compensatory policy measures and even for the design of ultimately more successful trade reforms.
A significant proportion of the inequality that we observe is the outcome of high incomes enjoyed... more A significant proportion of the inequality that we observe is the outcome of high incomes enjoyed by a very small proportion of the population.
This paper assesses the potential impacts of the removal of agricultural and other trade distorti... more This paper assesses the potential impacts of the removal of agricultural and other trade distortions using a newly developed dataset and methodological approach for evaluating the global poverty and inequality effects of policy reforms. It finds that liberalization of agriculture would increase global extreme poverty (US$1 a day) slightly and by almost 1 percent if other goods trade is also liberalized; but the number of people living on less than $2 a day would fall by almost 1 percent. Beneath these small aggregate changes, most countries witness a substantial reduction in poverty while South Asia -where half of the world's poor reside -would experience an increase in extreme (but not moderate) poverty incidence due to high rates of protection afforded to its unskilled labor-intensive agricultural sectors. The distributional changes also are projected to be mild, but again exhibit a strong regional pattern: inequality falls in Latin America, which is characterized by high initial inequality, and rises in South Asia, has relatively low income inequality.
A partir d’un modèle dynamique d’équilibre général appliqué au Costa Rica, les auteurs analysent ... more A partir d’un modèle dynamique d’équilibre général appliqué au Costa Rica, les auteurs analysent les liens entre l’environnement, le commerce international et la croissance économique. Leur étude envisage les conséquences des politiques commerciales et environnementales sur l’activité économique et la maîtrise de la pollution. Les taxes sur la pollution environnementale permettent de réduire sensiblement les polluants sans affecter la croissance
Since the middle of the 20 th century many developing countries have gone through what is general... more Since the middle of the 20 th century many developing countries have gone through what is generally called the second phase of the Demographic Transition, which is characterized by declining death rates and still relatively high fertility rates. The decline in death rates was the result of improved health care, prevention, sanitation and nutrition. The initial decline in mortality, which benefited infants and children proportionally more than the average individual, was much faster than the now-developed countries experienced during the 19 th century when they went through their second phase of the Demographic Transition. During the last decades developing countries could benefit from the earlier experience and recent research in high-income countries. As a result of the rapid decline in mortality, while fertility rates remained relatively high, the population in the developing world has increased from 1.7 billion in 1950 to 5.2 billion in 2005 and the share of developing countries in world population has increased from 67 percent to 81 percent during the same period.
Recent literature elucidates important linkages between trade and environment, emphasizing on the... more Recent literature elucidates important linkages between trade and environment, emphasizing on the possible reconciliation between trade liberalization and emission abatement policies. Facing the lack of robustness of qualitative results shown in theoretical work, this paper attempts a quantitative assessment of the interdependencies of these policies. A recursive dynamic CGE model for Costa Rica shows that environmental taxes marginally reduce growth yet allow a sharp decrease of emissions, and that outward orientation alone promotes growth, but induces a risk of specialization in dirty activities. Free trade combined with appropriate effluent taxes enhances factor reallocation towards competitive industries, and hence growth, while significantly abating emissions.
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Papers by Maurizio Bussolo