
Muhammad Bilal
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Papers by Muhammad Bilal
(PM2.5) consistently well above WHO (World Health Organization) air quality guidelines (AQG).
However, regulation is dependent on a sparse network of air quality monitoring stations and insufficient ground
data. This study utilizes long-term observations of aerosols and trace gases to characterize and rank the air
pollution scenarios and pollution characteristics of 80 selected cities in Pakistan. Datasets used include (1) the
Aqua and Terra (AquaTerra) MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Level 2 Collection 6.1
merged Dark Target and Deep Blue (DTB) aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval products; (2) the CAMS
(Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) reanalysis PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 data; (3) the MERRA-2 (Modern-
Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) reanalysis PM2.5 data, (4) the OMI (Ozone
Monitoring Instrument) tropospheric vertical column density (TVCD) of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and VCD of
sulfur dioxide (SO2) in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), (5) the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer
Suite) Nighttime Lights data, (6) MODIS Collection 6 Version 2 global monthly fire location data (MCD14ML),
(7) population density, (8) MODIS Level 3 Collection 6 land cover types, (9) AERONET (AErosol RObotic
NETwork) Version 3 Level 2.0 data, and (10) ground-based PM2.5 concentrations from air quality monitoring
stations. Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analyses were performed by integrating with groundbased
PM2.5 concentrations and the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) HYSPLIT
(Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) air parcel back trajectories to identify potential
pollution source areas which are responsible for extreme air pollution in Pakistan. Results show that the ranking
of the top polluted cities depends on the type of pollutant considered and the metric used. For example, Jhang,
Multan, and Vehari were characterized as the top three polluted cities in Pakistan when considering AquaTerra
DTB AOD products; for PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 Lahore, Gujranwala, and Okara were the top three; for 2
tropospheric NO2 VCD Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad and for PBL SO2 VCD Lahore, Mirpur, and Gujranwala.
The results demonstrate that Pakistan's entire population has been exposed to high PM2.5 concentrations
for many years, with a mean annual value of 54.7 μg/m3, over all Pakistan from 2003 to 2020. This value exceeds
Pakistan's National Environmental Quality Standards (Pak-NEQS, i.e., <15 μg/m3 annual mean) for ambient air
defined by the Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency (Pak-EPA) as well as the WHO Interim Target-1 (i.e.,
mean annual PM2.5 < 35 μg/m3). The spatial analyses of the concentrations of aerosols and trace gases in terms
of population density, nighttime lights, land cover types, and fire location data, and the PSCF analysis indicate
that Pakistan's air quality is strongly affected by anthropogenic sources inside of Pakistan, with contributions
from surrounding countries. Statistically significant positive (increasing) trends in PM1, PM2.5, PM10, tropospheric
NO2 VCD, and SO2 VCD were observed in ~89%, ~67%, ~48%, 91%, and ~ 88% of the Pakistani cities
(80 cities), respectively. This comprehensive analysis of aerosol and trace gas levels, their characteristics in
spatio-temporal domains, and their trends over Pakistan, is the first of its kind. Results will be helpful to the
Ministry of Climate Change (Government of Pakistan), Pak-EPA, SUPARCO (Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere
Research Commission), policymakers, and the local research community to mitigate air pollution and its
effects on human health.
(PM2.5) consistently well above WHO (World Health Organization) air quality guidelines (AQG).
However, regulation is dependent on a sparse network of air quality monitoring stations and insufficient ground
data. This study utilizes long-term observations of aerosols and trace gases to characterize and rank the air
pollution scenarios and pollution characteristics of 80 selected cities in Pakistan. Datasets used include (1) the
Aqua and Terra (AquaTerra) MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Level 2 Collection 6.1
merged Dark Target and Deep Blue (DTB) aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval products; (2) the CAMS
(Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) reanalysis PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 data; (3) the MERRA-2 (Modern-
Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) reanalysis PM2.5 data, (4) the OMI (Ozone
Monitoring Instrument) tropospheric vertical column density (TVCD) of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and VCD of
sulfur dioxide (SO2) in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), (5) the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer
Suite) Nighttime Lights data, (6) MODIS Collection 6 Version 2 global monthly fire location data (MCD14ML),
(7) population density, (8) MODIS Level 3 Collection 6 land cover types, (9) AERONET (AErosol RObotic
NETwork) Version 3 Level 2.0 data, and (10) ground-based PM2.5 concentrations from air quality monitoring
stations. Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analyses were performed by integrating with groundbased
PM2.5 concentrations and the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) HYSPLIT
(Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) air parcel back trajectories to identify potential
pollution source areas which are responsible for extreme air pollution in Pakistan. Results show that the ranking
of the top polluted cities depends on the type of pollutant considered and the metric used. For example, Jhang,
Multan, and Vehari were characterized as the top three polluted cities in Pakistan when considering AquaTerra
DTB AOD products; for PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 Lahore, Gujranwala, and Okara were the top three; for 2
tropospheric NO2 VCD Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad and for PBL SO2 VCD Lahore, Mirpur, and Gujranwala.
The results demonstrate that Pakistan's entire population has been exposed to high PM2.5 concentrations
for many years, with a mean annual value of 54.7 μg/m3, over all Pakistan from 2003 to 2020. This value exceeds
Pakistan's National Environmental Quality Standards (Pak-NEQS, i.e., <15 μg/m3 annual mean) for ambient air
defined by the Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency (Pak-EPA) as well as the WHO Interim Target-1 (i.e.,
mean annual PM2.5 < 35 μg/m3). The spatial analyses of the concentrations of aerosols and trace gases in terms
of population density, nighttime lights, land cover types, and fire location data, and the PSCF analysis indicate
that Pakistan's air quality is strongly affected by anthropogenic sources inside of Pakistan, with contributions
from surrounding countries. Statistically significant positive (increasing) trends in PM1, PM2.5, PM10, tropospheric
NO2 VCD, and SO2 VCD were observed in ~89%, ~67%, ~48%, 91%, and ~ 88% of the Pakistani cities
(80 cities), respectively. This comprehensive analysis of aerosol and trace gas levels, their characteristics in
spatio-temporal domains, and their trends over Pakistan, is the first of its kind. Results will be helpful to the
Ministry of Climate Change (Government of Pakistan), Pak-EPA, SUPARCO (Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere
Research Commission), policymakers, and the local research community to mitigate air pollution and its
effects on human health.