In this bin-fire of a UK it’s nice to be able to report a glimmer of hope for a change. For the second time within a month, an opinion poll has put the level of support for the SNP at a level which would allow it to win an outright majority in its own right in the Scottish Parliament at the Scottish election in May. The poll, by Stonehaven for The Times newspaper, puts the SNP on 67 seats in Holyrood after May, surpassing the 65 needed to give a party a majority, although realistically on 64 are needed as one seat in the 129 seat parliament is held by the Presiding Officer. This is an MRP poll. MRP polls are multilevel Regression and Post-stratification which typically have larger samples and enable election forecasters to more accurately predict how many seats each party will win by taking into account local factors and tactical voting. An MRP poll which puts the SNP on track for a majority in May’s Holyrood election is extremely good news indeed.
Stonehaven’s polling very accurately called the result of the 2024 Westminster general election, so if they are saying that the SNP is on track to win a majority in its own right that must be taken very seriously indeed, particularly since it’s the second poll in a month that puts the SNP on track for the much prized absolute majority and these both follow a number of polls which have placed the SNP very close to winning a majority in its own right. If replicated in May, this would give the SNP its first Holyrood majority since 2011, a victory which set in train the developments which brought about the independence referendum of 2014. A repeat of that SNP victory would create immense political pressure on a weakened Labour government to facilitate a second Scottish independence referendum.
Today’s Stonehaven poll gives the Scottish Greens seven seats, which would give the new Scottish Parliament an unassailable pro-independence majority of 74 versus 55 seats for all the other parties combined. Like so many recent polls it makes for dire reading for Conservative and Labour parties which are facing a well-deserved pummelling at the hands of the voters. The Tories would lose over three quarters of the 31 seats they won in 2021 and be reduced to a rump of 7. Douglas Ross is not standing and his equally unpleasant successor Russell Findlay would surely not survive such an electoral humiliation, assuming that is, that he manages to get re-elected himself, which is by no means certain. The polling runes are almost as bad for Labour’s Scottish branch office, Labour would be reduced to just 15 seats, the party’s worst result in the era of devolution. One of the casualties would be the pantomime dame of Scottish politics, Jackie Baillie.
The fly in the polling ointment is that the ghouls of Reform UK would become the largest anti-independence party in Holyrood, on 25 seats, and we’ll be treated to the weekly sight of Malcolm Offord being out of his depth at First Minister’s Questions as the leader of the largest opposition party. That’s almost a price worth paying for no longer having to witness the self-important preening of Russell Findlay.
Scotland is clearly not immune to the pernicious rise of the vile and gruesome Reform UK, which unveiled its sadistic immigration policy on Monday, a policy which the National Front would have been proud of in the 1970s. However it’s not surprising that Reform is making inroads here given the relentless platforming of the far right Anglo-British nationalist party and its talking points by a British media which knows that despite its rhetoric, Reform UK is a party which represents and defends the British establishment and the vested interests of the wealthy.
What is heartening however is that people in Scotland do appear to be more resistant to Reform UK’s pernicious lies than people elsewhere in the UK, and are left cold by Reform’s lunatic Brexit isolationism, its performative cruelty towards migrants, and its unconvincing and troubling pivot to Christian nationalism. This week UK unveiled plans to ‘restore Britain’s Christian heritage’, which includes introducing a “patriotic curriculum based on Christianity” and automatically designating all churches as listed buildings to restore Britain’s Christian heritage. Reform has clearly forgotten that Jesus was born as a Palestinian refugee in a stable in Bethlehem.
Scotland is a post-Christian country. Only a small minority of Scots attend church services. Over 50% of Scots do not identify as having any religion, 38.8% identify as Christian, most of whom do not attend church regularly. Only 7.2% of Scots report attending church regularly, which does not necessarily mean going every Sunday. The reason so many churches stand empty is not because they’re being sold off to Muslims to be converted into mosques but because church attendance has plummeted over the past few decades.
Reform’s plans for a “patriotic curriculum based on Christianity” will not apply in Scotland where education is a responsibility of the Scottish Government. However these plans represent the deeply alarming arrival of Christian nationalism into British politics. In the case of Reform UK it is particularly cynical and hypocritical. The twice divorced Nigel Farage is no paragon of Christian values.
This poll suggests that Scots are prepared to vote tactically for the SNP in the constituency vote in order to keep out Reform UK, which appeals to only a minority of the Scottish population but is anathema to most the rest. Soft No supporters must ask themselves whether they are so opposed to independence that they are prepared to live in a UK governed by a hard right English nationalist party which seeks to import the very worst aspects of the American right into Britain, with all the authoritarianism, corruption, performative cruelty and faux piety which that entails, claiming to stand up for women and girls against the supposed “threat” of trans people and migrants while turning a blind eye to the epidemic of violence and abuse perpetrated against women by heterosexual white men, restricting women’s reproductive rights and freedoms and undermining rights to maternity leave, subsidised childcare, and reintroducing the abhorrent two child cap on benefits.
We are within striking distance of the golden ticket, an SNP majority in Holyrood which First Minister John Swinney guarantees will lead to a second independence referendum within the term of the next Scottish Parliament. He says that he has a plan to bring that referendum about in the face of a Westminster refusal, but for obvious reasons will not reveal it until after the election has been won.
It is however quite certain that the choice facing Scotland is independence or far right English fascism, and this poll tells us that Scots will choose independence. This is only a poll, the only vote that matters is the one in May, but this poll tells us we are on track to making it happen.
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