Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitat... more Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g. partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, aggregated representation of technologies involved). Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches may provide new, more comprehensive insights, especially into issues that involve multiple economic sectors, different temporal and spatial scales or various impact categories. Model collaboration consists of aligning and harmonizing input data and scenarios, model comparison and/or model linkage.
Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (ag... more Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (agricultural) policies, global trade, climate change, technology and enlargement of the European Union. These changes will affect farmers’ production and income level and make the final outcome of this process uncertain. This paper tries to assess this uncertainty by analyzing the results of 34 scenarios of
The paper investigates the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply c... more The paper investigates the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply chain using the computable general equilibrium model of the world economy named LEITAP. LEITAP is an extended version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model including an improved land market modeling, substitution possibilities between capital and energy as well as between different energy
This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the EU biofuels directive in a multi-... more This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the EU biofuels directive in a multi-region computable general equilibrium framework. Our results show that without mandatory blending or subsidies to stimulate the use of biofuel crops in the petroleum sector the targets of the EU Biofuel directive will not the reached in 2010. With mandatory blending the enhanced demand for biofuel crops has a strong impact on agriculture at the global and European level. The additional demand from the energy sector might slow down or reverse the long term process of declining agricultural prices.
Introduction The aim of this paper is to assess the economic impact of the transfer of funds from... more Introduction The aim of this paper is to assess the economic impact of the transfer of funds from direct income support to farmers (Pillar One) to rural development money (Pillar Two) of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) through the compulsory modulation mechanism, as provided for under Article 10 of Council Regulation (EC) No 1782/2003. Modulation was introduced, originally as a voluntary mechanism, in 2000 as a means of increasing support for rural development within the CAP. This is achieved by transferring a proportion of the Pillar One budget to the funding of rural development measures under Pillar Two. This requirement became mandatory in 2003 as a result of the Mid Term Evaluation of the CAP. This currently applies to the EU-15, however compulsory modulation will apply to the twelve new Member States that acceded to the EU in 2004 and 2007 when their Pillar One payments reach the same level as those of the EU-15. For the 2007-13 programming period, compulsory modulation i...
Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitat... more Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g. partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, aggregated representation of technologies involved). Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches may provide new, more comprehensive insights, especially into issues that involve multiple economic sectors, different temporal and spatial scales or various impact categories. Model collaboration consists of aligning and harmonizing input data and scenarios, model comparison and/or model linkage.
Decoupling of direct payments can be expected to have complex effects and the net effect on crop ... more Decoupling of direct payments can be expected to have complex effects and the net effect on crop and fodder acreage is unclear. A literature review reveals that various simulation models uniformly project a decline of the cereal and silage maize acreage as well as ruminant production in the EU-15 in the course of decoupling of direct payments. In contrast, model
This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural s... more This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the
Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitat... more Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g. partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, aggregated representation of technologies involved). Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches may provide new, more comprehensive insights, especially into issues that involve multiple economic sectors, different temporal and spatial scales or various impact categories. Model collaboration consists of aligning and harmonizing input data and scenarios, model comparison and/or model linkage.
The past and future international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture is assessed by calcula... more The past and future international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture is assessed by calculating domestic resource cost (DRC) ratios using data for 2000–02 as a base. Future international competitiveness is estimated for 2007 and 2013 under three scenarios: baseline (no accession), accession with historical rates of productivity growth and accession with dynamic improvements in productivity. Predicted price changes were generated by
This article analyses the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply ch... more This article analyses the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply chain using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, LEITAP. LEITAP is an extended version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model including improved land market modeling, substitution possibilities between capital and energy, different energy sources including biofuels, feed byproducts of
Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (ag... more Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (agricultural) policies, global trade, climate change, technology and enlargement of the European Union. These changes will affect farmers’ production and income level and make the final outcome of this process uncertain. This paper tries to assess this uncertainty by analyzing the results of 34 scenarios of the EURURALIS project. The scenario outcomes were used to investigate agricultural income development and to analyze the impact of different combinations of macroeconomic and policy factors on agricultural income. The results of these scenarios were achieved in a modeling framework consisting of a modified version of the Global Trade Analysis Project model (GTAP) and the more ecological-environmental oriented Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE).
This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the European Union Biofuels Directive... more This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the European Union Biofuels Directive (BFD) in a multi-region computable general equilibrium framework with endogenous determination of land supply. The results show that, without mandatory blending policies or subsidies to stimulate the use of biofuel crops in the petroleum sector, the targets of the BFD will not be met in 2010 and 2020. With a mandatory blending policy, the enhanced demand for biofuel crops has a strong impact on agriculture at the global and European levels. The additional demand from the energy sector leads to an increase in global land use and, ultimately, a decrease in biodiversity. The development, on the other hand, might slow or reverse the long-term process of declining real agricultural prices. Moreover, assuming a further liberalization of the European agricultural market imports of biofuels are expected to increase to more than 50% of the total biofuel demand in Europe.
In the last decade biofuel production has been driven by governmental policies. This article revi... more In the last decade biofuel production has been driven by governmental policies. This article reviews the national strategy plans of the world's leading producers. Particular attention is dedicated to blending targets, support schemes and feedstock use. Individual country profiles are grouped by continent and include North America (Canada and the US), South America (Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia), Europe (the European Union,
Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitat... more Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g. partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, aggregated representation of technologies involved). Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches may provide new, more comprehensive insights, especially into issues that involve multiple economic sectors, different temporal and spatial scales or various impact categories. Model collaboration consists of aligning and harmonizing input data and scenarios, model comparison and/or model linkage.
Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (ag... more Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (agricultural) policies, global trade, climate change, technology and enlargement of the European Union. These changes will affect farmers’ production and income level and make the final outcome of this process uncertain. This paper tries to assess this uncertainty by analyzing the results of 34 scenarios of
The paper investigates the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply c... more The paper investigates the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply chain using the computable general equilibrium model of the world economy named LEITAP. LEITAP is an extended version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model including an improved land market modeling, substitution possibilities between capital and energy as well as between different energy
This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the EU biofuels directive in a multi-... more This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the EU biofuels directive in a multi-region computable general equilibrium framework. Our results show that without mandatory blending or subsidies to stimulate the use of biofuel crops in the petroleum sector the targets of the EU Biofuel directive will not the reached in 2010. With mandatory blending the enhanced demand for biofuel crops has a strong impact on agriculture at the global and European level. The additional demand from the energy sector might slow down or reverse the long term process of declining agricultural prices.
Introduction The aim of this paper is to assess the economic impact of the transfer of funds from... more Introduction The aim of this paper is to assess the economic impact of the transfer of funds from direct income support to farmers (Pillar One) to rural development money (Pillar Two) of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) through the compulsory modulation mechanism, as provided for under Article 10 of Council Regulation (EC) No 1782/2003. Modulation was introduced, originally as a voluntary mechanism, in 2000 as a means of increasing support for rural development within the CAP. This is achieved by transferring a proportion of the Pillar One budget to the funding of rural development measures under Pillar Two. This requirement became mandatory in 2003 as a result of the Mid Term Evaluation of the CAP. This currently applies to the EU-15, however compulsory modulation will apply to the twelve new Member States that acceded to the EU in 2004 and 2007 when their Pillar One payments reach the same level as those of the EU-15. For the 2007-13 programming period, compulsory modulation i...
Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitat... more Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g. partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, aggregated representation of technologies involved). Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches may provide new, more comprehensive insights, especially into issues that involve multiple economic sectors, different temporal and spatial scales or various impact categories. Model collaboration consists of aligning and harmonizing input data and scenarios, model comparison and/or model linkage.
Decoupling of direct payments can be expected to have complex effects and the net effect on crop ... more Decoupling of direct payments can be expected to have complex effects and the net effect on crop and fodder acreage is unclear. A literature review reveals that various simulation models uniformly project a decline of the cereal and silage maize acreage as well as ruminant production in the EU-15 in the course of decoupling of direct payments. In contrast, model
This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural s... more This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the
Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitat... more Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g. partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, aggregated representation of technologies involved). Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches may provide new, more comprehensive insights, especially into issues that involve multiple economic sectors, different temporal and spatial scales or various impact categories. Model collaboration consists of aligning and harmonizing input data and scenarios, model comparison and/or model linkage.
The past and future international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture is assessed by calcula... more The past and future international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture is assessed by calculating domestic resource cost (DRC) ratios using data for 2000–02 as a base. Future international competitiveness is estimated for 2007 and 2013 under three scenarios: baseline (no accession), accession with historical rates of productivity growth and accession with dynamic improvements in productivity. Predicted price changes were generated by
This article analyses the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply ch... more This article analyses the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply chain using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, LEITAP. LEITAP is an extended version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model including improved land market modeling, substitution possibilities between capital and energy, different energy sources including biofuels, feed byproducts of
Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (ag... more Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (agricultural) policies, global trade, climate change, technology and enlargement of the European Union. These changes will affect farmers’ production and income level and make the final outcome of this process uncertain. This paper tries to assess this uncertainty by analyzing the results of 34 scenarios of the EURURALIS project. The scenario outcomes were used to investigate agricultural income development and to analyze the impact of different combinations of macroeconomic and policy factors on agricultural income. The results of these scenarios were achieved in a modeling framework consisting of a modified version of the Global Trade Analysis Project model (GTAP) and the more ecological-environmental oriented Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE).
This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the European Union Biofuels Directive... more This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the European Union Biofuels Directive (BFD) in a multi-region computable general equilibrium framework with endogenous determination of land supply. The results show that, without mandatory blending policies or subsidies to stimulate the use of biofuel crops in the petroleum sector, the targets of the BFD will not be met in 2010 and 2020. With a mandatory blending policy, the enhanced demand for biofuel crops has a strong impact on agriculture at the global and European levels. The additional demand from the energy sector leads to an increase in global land use and, ultimately, a decrease in biodiversity. The development, on the other hand, might slow or reverse the long-term process of declining real agricultural prices. Moreover, assuming a further liberalization of the European agricultural market imports of biofuels are expected to increase to more than 50% of the total biofuel demand in Europe.
In the last decade biofuel production has been driven by governmental policies. This article revi... more In the last decade biofuel production has been driven by governmental policies. This article reviews the national strategy plans of the world's leading producers. Particular attention is dedicated to blending targets, support schemes and feedstock use. Individual country profiles are grouped by continent and include North America (Canada and the US), South America (Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia), Europe (the European Union,
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