This Special Issue explores the causes, patterns and consequences of presidential activism, defin... more This Special Issue explores the causes, patterns and consequences of presidential activism, defined as the presidents’ use of their formal powers and their attempts to influence politics through informal channels. Examining ‘going public’ strategies, the influence exerted by presidents through informal and formal coordination mechanisms, links to political parties and foreign policy leadership, it argues that presidential activism shapes intra-executive relations, enabling presidents to wield influence beyond their constitutional powers. Presidential activism is facilitated by the presidents’ popularity and role as head of state, particularly in less stable political contexts. These findings underline the need to investigate further various channels of presidential activism and how the citizens and media react to it, both during normal times and crises.
During crises, executives are empowered at the expense of legislatures. This applied also to the ... more During crises, executives are empowered at the expense of legislatures. This applied also to the COVID period. Focusing on two stable yet different European democracies, France and Finland, this article examines the internal and external factors affecting the ability of parliaments to control the executive during the pandemic. The empirical analysis considers institutional developments affecting parliaments as well as the behaviour of MPs. The benefit of hindsight enables us to assess the entire COVID period, showing that in both countries the initial dominance of the executive was followed by more assertive parliamentary behaviour. The results indicate that, despite difficult conditions, parliaments in both countries displayed adaptability and resilience, but power constellations pre-dating the COVID period impacted on the respective roles of the French and Finnish parliaments.
Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scal... more Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scale war. This study examines executive coordination from Zelenskyi's mid-2019 election to the February 2022-July 2023 war period, using media sources and official data. It introduces three new leadership models-figurehead-leader, arbiter-management and leader-implementerto capture evolving intra-executive relations in semi-presidential systems. Power centralisation around the president has accelerated, fitting the leader-implementer model. However, in accordance with the arbiter-manager model, a stricter division of labour, especially in domestic policy, is evident. Despite semi-presidentialism's perceived conflict-proneness, the study shows it can function efficiently and allow executive flexibility during significant crisis.
Sudden crises present a 'stress test' for democratic policymaking. Amidst global ... more Sudden crises present a 'stress test' for democratic policymaking. Amidst global crises the capacity for swift decisions is becoming increasingly important but reacting to abrupt challenges also easily leads to violations of democratic norms, as recent studies on Covid-19 pandemic demonstrate. To advance our understanding of this pressing tension that thus far has been mainly approached via broad regime-level comparisons, this study examines formal and informal coordinative institutions that facilitate efficient and democratic policy response in crisis situations. Applying the core executive model, we focus on Finland's decision to apply for NATO membership that unfolded rapidly after Russia attacked Ukraine. Through detailed process tracing analysis, we show how the country's strongly entrenched doctrine of military non-alignment was overturned with broad cross-party consensus in under three months via intensive mediation involving all key actors and governing institutions. Adding important nuance to constitutionally centred studies of crisis decision-making, our analysis shows how strongly institutionalised coordination mechanisms can facilitate radical policy changes to status quo even in the context of dispersed policymaking resources and high partisan fragmentation. Our findings especially underline the complementary roles and interplay of formal rules and informal practices, showing that in crisis situations the latter acquire fundamental importance.
European Journal of Futures Research, Sep 28, 2023
Legislatures have recently started to invest in anticipatory governance. Alongside new practices,... more Legislatures have recently started to invest in anticipatory governance. Alongside new practices, they have introduced designated future committees and organs that connect MPs to future-regarding visioning and advice. Two decades ago, only Finland had a 'future committee' , today broadly similar organs exist in 10 countries around the world. While signaling an important attempt to take expert-driven anticipatory governance closer to voters, legislative future organs may become short-lasting or remain politically weak, as their efforts to gain power typically threaten established legislative actors. To examine this emerging tension, we theoretically distinguish the unorthodox methods of future committees from traditional legislative practices and empirically compare the operation of all existing legislative future committees and similar organs. We uncover a considerable similarity between these institutions that mostly operate outside of the ordinary legislative process. To survive, they must add value to MPs without endangering the existing division of power. Finding this balance enhances the consolidation of legislative future organs, but it simultaneously limits their conventional political impact.
Analysing how the roles of national parliaments and the European Parliament have changed in Europ... more Analysing how the roles of national parliaments and the European Parliament have changed in European economic governance since the euro crisis, this article argues that their situation has deteriorated in the post-Next Generation EU regime. It identifies structural factors impeding more effective parliamentary engagement, relates these to empirical evidence about the role of domestic legislatures and the European Parliament and mirrors these practices against constitutional interpretations concerning the democratic role of parliaments in budgetary matters. The broader Economic and Monetary Union architecture has grown to encompass a variety of rules and mechanisms, many of which are located outside of the treaties and the budget of the Union. As a result, parliaments lack formal powers that would guarantee them meaningful participation rights in European economic and fiscal governance. The key to more effective parliamentary involvement is ensuring that the parliaments can genuinely shape policies and that a strong link is established between elections and budgetary politics.
Changes in formal powers of political actors like presidents are expected to impact their behavio... more Changes in formal powers of political actors like presidents are expected to impact their behavior. This study examines speeches that presidents can utilize for a variety of purposes ranging from topical reflections to new political initiatives and criticism of the government and political parties. In semi-presidential regimes, presidents are often constitutionally weaker than governments, but their popularity opens the possibility of using the public platform for swaying the minds of citizens or politicians. We analyze the tone and content of Finnish presidents' New Year's messages and parliamentary speeches from 1932 to 2023. To contribute to the long-standing literature on regime effects, we gauge the impact of Finland's comprehensive constitutional reform that stripped off most powers of the presidency that was formerly considered among the strongest in Europe. The results show that presidential activity changed already in the mid-1990s when the reform was still underway, and presidents appointed since then speak systematically less about domestic policy and emphasize national unity and citizens, indicating that constitutionally weaker presidents recognize their jurisdictional limits and lean more on their role as directly elected heads of state operating above political parties.
Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scale war. T... more Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scale war. This study examines executive coordination from Zelenskyi's mid-2019 election to the February 2022-July 2023 war period, using media sources and official data. It introduces three new leadership models-figurehead-leader, arbiter-management and leader-implementerto capture evolving intra-executive relations in semi-presidential systems. Power centralisation around the president has accelerated, fitting the leader-implementer model. However, in accordance with the arbiter-manager model, a stricter division of labour, especially in domestic policy, is evident. Despite semi-presidentialism's perceived conflict-proneness, the study shows it can function efficiently and allow executive flexibility during significant crisis.
The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing thei... more The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing their internal networks and working together in the EU institutions, the Europarties have consistently called for a more democratic and stronger EU. Focusing on the three largest Europarties, the European People's Party (EPP), the Party of European Socialists (PES) and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), this UI Paper examines their positions on the institutional development of the Union. The manifestos for the 2024 European elections contain few concrete reform proposals about EU governance, suggesting growing internal divisions inside the main Europarties. When including the smaller Europarties in the analysis, the Greens stand out with their explicitly federalist manifesto. The paper also discusses the factors shaping the Europarties' positions and whether the national member parties are really committed to them. When they are not, the decoupling between national and European level campaigns weakens the cohesion and influence of the Europarties.
For decades, major Europarties like the EPP, PES, and ALDE have advocated increased EU integratio... more For decades, major Europarties like the EPP, PES, and ALDE have advocated increased EU integration, pushing for democratic and institutional strengthening. However, this paper, which features analysis of their 2024 election manifestos reveals, few concrete governance reform proposals. This may well indicate internal divisions. The Greens, though, standout with their federalist agenda. The paper explores factors influencing Europarties' stances and questions the commitment of national member parties. When national and EU-level campaigns diverge, it weakens Europarties' cohesion and influence.
The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing thei... more The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing their internal networks and working together in the EU institutions, the Europarties have consistently called for a more democratic and stronger EU. Focusing on the three largest Europarties, the European People’s Party (EPP), the Party of European Socialists (PES) and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), this UI Paper examines their positions on the institutional development of the Union. The manifestos for the 2024 European elections contain few concrete reform proposals about EU governance, suggesting growing internal divisions inside the main Europarties. When including the smaller Europarties in the analysis, the Greens stand out with their explicitly federalist manifesto. The paper also discusses the factors shaping the Europarties’ positions and whether the national member parties are really committed to them. When they are not, the decoupling between national and European level campaigns weakens the cohesion and influence of the Europarties.
Although public communication is a key aspect of political leadership, there is no systematic com... more Although public communication is a key aspect of political leadership, there is no systematic comparative research on the speeches of presidents in European semi-presidential countries. In such regimes, constitutionally weaker presidents are tempted to use the public podium for increasing their influence, potentially igniting intra-executive quarrels that debilitate decision-making. To gauge this general dynamic, this article analyses the official speeches of Czech, Finnish, French, Polish, Portuguese and Romanian presidents between 2000 and 2020. It first explores the 'politicalness' of presidents' public activity through the general tone and the share of references to economy in the speeches. It then examines how societal conditions, party-political dynamics and public opinion impact the tone and content of presidential addresses. Presidents largely adopt a positive or neutral tone even during cohabitation or economic downturn, but occasionally intervene in issues under the government's jurisdiction. The results highlight the complex and precarious nature of semi-presidentialism.
This Special Issue explores the causes, patterns and consequences of presidential activism, defin... more This Special Issue explores the causes, patterns and consequences of presidential activism, defined as the presidents’ use of their formal powers and their attempts to influence politics through informal channels. Examining ‘going public’ strategies, the influence exerted by presidents through informal and formal coordination mechanisms, links to political parties and foreign policy leadership, it argues that presidential activism shapes intra-executive relations, enabling presidents to wield influence beyond their constitutional powers. Presidential activism is facilitated by the presidents’ popularity and role as head of state, particularly in less stable political contexts. These findings underline the need to investigate further various channels of presidential activism and how the citizens and media react to it, both during normal times and crises.
During crises, executives are empowered at the expense of legislatures. This applied also to the ... more During crises, executives are empowered at the expense of legislatures. This applied also to the COVID period. Focusing on two stable yet different European democracies, France and Finland, this article examines the internal and external factors affecting the ability of parliaments to control the executive during the pandemic. The empirical analysis considers institutional developments affecting parliaments as well as the behaviour of MPs. The benefit of hindsight enables us to assess the entire COVID period, showing that in both countries the initial dominance of the executive was followed by more assertive parliamentary behaviour. The results indicate that, despite difficult conditions, parliaments in both countries displayed adaptability and resilience, but power constellations pre-dating the COVID period impacted on the respective roles of the French and Finnish parliaments.
Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scal... more Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scale war. This study examines executive coordination from Zelenskyi's mid-2019 election to the February 2022-July 2023 war period, using media sources and official data. It introduces three new leadership models-figurehead-leader, arbiter-management and leader-implementerto capture evolving intra-executive relations in semi-presidential systems. Power centralisation around the president has accelerated, fitting the leader-implementer model. However, in accordance with the arbiter-manager model, a stricter division of labour, especially in domestic policy, is evident. Despite semi-presidentialism's perceived conflict-proneness, the study shows it can function efficiently and allow executive flexibility during significant crisis.
Sudden crises present a 'stress test' for democratic policymaking. Amidst global ... more Sudden crises present a 'stress test' for democratic policymaking. Amidst global crises the capacity for swift decisions is becoming increasingly important but reacting to abrupt challenges also easily leads to violations of democratic norms, as recent studies on Covid-19 pandemic demonstrate. To advance our understanding of this pressing tension that thus far has been mainly approached via broad regime-level comparisons, this study examines formal and informal coordinative institutions that facilitate efficient and democratic policy response in crisis situations. Applying the core executive model, we focus on Finland's decision to apply for NATO membership that unfolded rapidly after Russia attacked Ukraine. Through detailed process tracing analysis, we show how the country's strongly entrenched doctrine of military non-alignment was overturned with broad cross-party consensus in under three months via intensive mediation involving all key actors and governing institutions. Adding important nuance to constitutionally centred studies of crisis decision-making, our analysis shows how strongly institutionalised coordination mechanisms can facilitate radical policy changes to status quo even in the context of dispersed policymaking resources and high partisan fragmentation. Our findings especially underline the complementary roles and interplay of formal rules and informal practices, showing that in crisis situations the latter acquire fundamental importance.
European Journal of Futures Research, Sep 28, 2023
Legislatures have recently started to invest in anticipatory governance. Alongside new practices,... more Legislatures have recently started to invest in anticipatory governance. Alongside new practices, they have introduced designated future committees and organs that connect MPs to future-regarding visioning and advice. Two decades ago, only Finland had a 'future committee' , today broadly similar organs exist in 10 countries around the world. While signaling an important attempt to take expert-driven anticipatory governance closer to voters, legislative future organs may become short-lasting or remain politically weak, as their efforts to gain power typically threaten established legislative actors. To examine this emerging tension, we theoretically distinguish the unorthodox methods of future committees from traditional legislative practices and empirically compare the operation of all existing legislative future committees and similar organs. We uncover a considerable similarity between these institutions that mostly operate outside of the ordinary legislative process. To survive, they must add value to MPs without endangering the existing division of power. Finding this balance enhances the consolidation of legislative future organs, but it simultaneously limits their conventional political impact.
Analysing how the roles of national parliaments and the European Parliament have changed in Europ... more Analysing how the roles of national parliaments and the European Parliament have changed in European economic governance since the euro crisis, this article argues that their situation has deteriorated in the post-Next Generation EU regime. It identifies structural factors impeding more effective parliamentary engagement, relates these to empirical evidence about the role of domestic legislatures and the European Parliament and mirrors these practices against constitutional interpretations concerning the democratic role of parliaments in budgetary matters. The broader Economic and Monetary Union architecture has grown to encompass a variety of rules and mechanisms, many of which are located outside of the treaties and the budget of the Union. As a result, parliaments lack formal powers that would guarantee them meaningful participation rights in European economic and fiscal governance. The key to more effective parliamentary involvement is ensuring that the parliaments can genuinely shape policies and that a strong link is established between elections and budgetary politics.
Changes in formal powers of political actors like presidents are expected to impact their behavio... more Changes in formal powers of political actors like presidents are expected to impact their behavior. This study examines speeches that presidents can utilize for a variety of purposes ranging from topical reflections to new political initiatives and criticism of the government and political parties. In semi-presidential regimes, presidents are often constitutionally weaker than governments, but their popularity opens the possibility of using the public platform for swaying the minds of citizens or politicians. We analyze the tone and content of Finnish presidents' New Year's messages and parliamentary speeches from 1932 to 2023. To contribute to the long-standing literature on regime effects, we gauge the impact of Finland's comprehensive constitutional reform that stripped off most powers of the presidency that was formerly considered among the strongest in Europe. The results show that presidential activity changed already in the mid-1990s when the reform was still underway, and presidents appointed since then speak systematically less about domestic policy and emphasize national unity and citizens, indicating that constitutionally weaker presidents recognize their jurisdictional limits and lean more on their role as directly elected heads of state operating above political parties.
Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scale war. T... more Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scale war. This study examines executive coordination from Zelenskyi's mid-2019 election to the February 2022-July 2023 war period, using media sources and official data. It introduces three new leadership models-figurehead-leader, arbiter-management and leader-implementerto capture evolving intra-executive relations in semi-presidential systems. Power centralisation around the president has accelerated, fitting the leader-implementer model. However, in accordance with the arbiter-manager model, a stricter division of labour, especially in domestic policy, is evident. Despite semi-presidentialism's perceived conflict-proneness, the study shows it can function efficiently and allow executive flexibility during significant crisis.
The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing thei... more The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing their internal networks and working together in the EU institutions, the Europarties have consistently called for a more democratic and stronger EU. Focusing on the three largest Europarties, the European People's Party (EPP), the Party of European Socialists (PES) and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), this UI Paper examines their positions on the institutional development of the Union. The manifestos for the 2024 European elections contain few concrete reform proposals about EU governance, suggesting growing internal divisions inside the main Europarties. When including the smaller Europarties in the analysis, the Greens stand out with their explicitly federalist manifesto. The paper also discusses the factors shaping the Europarties' positions and whether the national member parties are really committed to them. When they are not, the decoupling between national and European level campaigns weakens the cohesion and influence of the Europarties.
For decades, major Europarties like the EPP, PES, and ALDE have advocated increased EU integratio... more For decades, major Europarties like the EPP, PES, and ALDE have advocated increased EU integration, pushing for democratic and institutional strengthening. However, this paper, which features analysis of their 2024 election manifestos reveals, few concrete governance reform proposals. This may well indicate internal divisions. The Greens, though, standout with their federalist agenda. The paper explores factors influencing Europarties' stances and questions the commitment of national member parties. When national and EU-level campaigns diverge, it weakens Europarties' cohesion and influence.
The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing thei... more The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing their internal networks and working together in the EU institutions, the Europarties have consistently called for a more democratic and stronger EU. Focusing on the three largest Europarties, the European People’s Party (EPP), the Party of European Socialists (PES) and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), this UI Paper examines their positions on the institutional development of the Union. The manifestos for the 2024 European elections contain few concrete reform proposals about EU governance, suggesting growing internal divisions inside the main Europarties. When including the smaller Europarties in the analysis, the Greens stand out with their explicitly federalist manifesto. The paper also discusses the factors shaping the Europarties’ positions and whether the national member parties are really committed to them. When they are not, the decoupling between national and European level campaigns weakens the cohesion and influence of the Europarties.
Although public communication is a key aspect of political leadership, there is no systematic com... more Although public communication is a key aspect of political leadership, there is no systematic comparative research on the speeches of presidents in European semi-presidential countries. In such regimes, constitutionally weaker presidents are tempted to use the public podium for increasing their influence, potentially igniting intra-executive quarrels that debilitate decision-making. To gauge this general dynamic, this article analyses the official speeches of Czech, Finnish, French, Polish, Portuguese and Romanian presidents between 2000 and 2020. It first explores the 'politicalness' of presidents' public activity through the general tone and the share of references to economy in the speeches. It then examines how societal conditions, party-political dynamics and public opinion impact the tone and content of presidential addresses. Presidents largely adopt a positive or neutral tone even during cohabitation or economic downturn, but occasionally intervene in issues under the government's jurisdiction. The results highlight the complex and precarious nature of semi-presidentialism.
One of the key arguments of the ‘leave’ side in the Brexit referendum of June 2016 was that 60 % ... more One of the key arguments of the ‘leave’ side in the Brexit referendum of June 2016 was that 60 % or even 75 % of British legislation originated in Brussels, not in London. Examining the impact of European Union on national legislation in Finland, we show that contrary to the widely accepted ‘Delors myth’, only 17.8 % on national laws adopted between 1995 and 2015 were related to the EU. Evidence from other European countries corroborates our findings: the share of domestic laws with an EU impulse is higher in some countries but never even close to the 80 % threshold suggested by the Delors myth.
Transnational Parties and Advocacy in European Integration, 2024
This book analyses the role of Europarties in the deepening of integration and the debates on the... more This book analyses the role of Europarties in the deepening of integration and the debates on the future of Europe. It is guided by three fundamental research questions: What strategies do Europarties utilize to advance their visions of Europe? What is the relative influence of the actors in the networks of the Europarties? How successful have the Europarties been in shaping the future of Europe? European integration cannot be understood without accounting for the impact of the Europarties. Theoretically, the book utilizes the concepts of advocacy and agenda-setting, identifying Europarties as transnational partisan actors operating at intergovernmental and supranational levels of EU decision-making. Europarties have consolidated their organizational structures, and more importantly, have over the decades built their own networks and coalitions that enable them to wield influence in ways rarely captured by previous studies. Empirically, the book investigates the networks and positions of the Europarties, constitutional reform processes, and the role of the Europarties and their EP political groups in the broader debates on the future of Europe.
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Papers by Tapio Raunio
Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), this UI Paper examines their positions on the institutional development of the Union. The manifestos for the 2024 European elections contain few concrete reform proposals about EU governance, suggesting growing internal
divisions inside the main Europarties. When including the smaller Europarties in the analysis, the Greens stand out with their explicitly federalist manifesto. The paper also discusses the factors shaping the Europarties’ positions and whether the national member parties are really committed to them. When they are not, the decoupling between national and European level campaigns weakens the cohesion and influence of the Europarties.
Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), this UI Paper examines their positions on the institutional development of the Union. The manifestos for the 2024 European elections contain few concrete reform proposals about EU governance, suggesting growing internal
divisions inside the main Europarties. When including the smaller Europarties in the analysis, the Greens stand out with their explicitly federalist manifesto. The paper also discusses the factors shaping the Europarties’ positions and whether the national member parties are really committed to them. When they are not, the decoupling between national and European level campaigns weakens the cohesion and influence of the Europarties.