Papers by Maarika Kujanen
Political Studies, 2024
In semi-presidential regimes presidents need to strike a balance between representing the nation ... more In semi-presidential regimes presidents need to strike a balance between representing the nation and sharing power with prime ministers. The coexistence of the executives may pose challenges to the presidents, but it could also strengthen their public standing. Yet we lack information on how party-political shifts and clashes between the executives shape public opinion on presidents. Covering the period 2000-2020 and including presidents from the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Poland and Portugal, this article reveals that presidential popularity is influenced by the political weakness of the government, as both weak and strong presidents' popularity ratings increased during minority governments, and by the constitutional strength of the presidency, as people seem to tolerate more confrontational involvement mostly from those presidents with stronger constitutional powers. The impact of cohabitation, in turn, appears to be more context-specific, sometimes benefitting the president's public standing, while at other times harming it. The results thus suggest that being politically opposed to the government may boost the president's political capital, but only under certain circumstances.
East European Politics, 2024
People seem to trust the president more than other national political institutions. In the contex... more People seem to trust the president more than other national political institutions. In the context of semi-presidential regimes, it is plausible that the role of the president being "above party politics" is an explanatory factor behind this pattern. This study challenges the argument by analysing the impact of citizens' party preferences and attitudes towards the political system on trust in president in select CEE countries. The results confirm that trust in president is often context specific and cannot be disassociated from partisan factors. In general, similar patterns are found between trust in president and trust in prime minister.
International Political Science Review, 2024
Although public communication is a key aspect of political leadership, there is no systematic com... more Although public communication is a key aspect of political leadership, there is no systematic comparative research on the speeches of presidents in European semi-presidential countries. In such regimes, constitutionally weaker presidents are tempted to use the public podium for increasing their influence, potentially igniting intra-executive quarrels that debilitate decision-making. To gauge this general dynamic, this article analyses the official speeches of Czech, Finnish, French, Polish, Portuguese and Romanian presidents between 2000 and 2020. It first explores the 'politicalness' of presidents' public activity through the general tone and the share of references to economy in the speeches. It then examines how societal conditions, party-political dynamics and public opinion impact the tone and content of presidential addresses. Presidents largely adopt a positive or neutral tone even during cohabitation or economic downturn, but occasionally intervene in issues under the government's jurisdiction. The results highlight the complex and precarious nature of semi-presidentialism.
Comparative European Politics, 2024
Changes in formal powers of political actors like presidents are expected to impact their behavio... more Changes in formal powers of political actors like presidents are expected to impact their behavior. This study examines speeches that presidents can utilize for a variety of purposes ranging from topical reflections to new political initiatives and criticism of the government and political parties. In semi-presidential regimes, presidents are often constitutionally weaker than governments, but their popularity opens the possibility of using the public platform for swaying the minds of citizens or politicians. We analyze the tone and content of Finnish presidents' New Year's messages and parliamentary speeches from 1932 to 2023. To contribute to the long-standing literature on regime effects, we gauge the impact of Finland's comprehensive constitutional reform that stripped off most powers of the presidency that was formerly considered among the strongest in Europe. The results show that presidential activity changed already in the mid-1990s when the reform was still underway, and presidents appointed since then speak systematically less about domestic policy and emphasize national unity and citizens, indicating that constitutionally weaker presidents recognize their jurisdictional limits and lean more on their role as directly elected heads of state operating above political parties.
European Political Science Review, 2023
The role of the president varies between political systems, and so does public opinion on preside... more The role of the president varies between political systems, and so does public opinion on presidents. One of the most evident factors distinguishing presidents in different systems is the constitutional strength of the presidency, which should impact how presidents are perceived by the people. Public opinion on presidents has mainly been studied in the context of classical presidential regimes such as the USA and Latin American countries, and we lack systematic empirical research on presidential popularity in other regime types and in the context of the presidents' constitutional powers. This article addresses this research gap by analysing whether the level of presidential powers explain variation in presidential popularity across different constitutional settings. Drawing on public opinion surveys and relevant contextual data from 15 countries, the results show that a higher level of presidential popularity is associated with weaker presidency and that the impact of the economy and electoral cycle is conditioned by the level of presidential powers.
Political Studies Review, 2023
Presidents can use public speeches for a variety of purposes from rallying support for their init... more Presidents can use public speeches for a variety of purposes from rallying support for their initiatives to attacking their opponents or building societal consensus. Contrary to general expectations regarding dual executive systems, this article suggests that presidents in semi-presidential regimes can benefit politically and in terms of popularity from 'statespersonlike' behaviour, and thus, they should generally refrain from negative and contentious statements. Examining the tone and content of formal speeches and informal messages of Finnish and French presidents from 2000 to 2020, the study shows that under varying constitutional frameworks and general practical expectations, the presidents in both countries by and large employ a 'statespersonlike' style in their speeches. Presidential speeches primarily express a positive tone, and they contain few references to other state institutions and economy and other governmental domains. Instead, presidents typically seek to portray themselves as guardians of national interest, with foreign policy and national unity emphasized in the speeches.
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Papers by Maarika Kujanen