Brian McQuinn

University of Regina, Politics and International Studies, Faculty Member

Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID), Geneva, Centre on Conflict, Development, and Peacebuilding (CCDP), Research Associate

University of Oxford, Institute of Social and Cultural Anthropology, Post-Doc

Danish Institute For International Studies, Peace, Risk and Violence, Research Associate

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Brian McQuinn, a Harry Guggenheim Foundation Dissertation Fellow, is an Assistant Professor at the University of Regina. Previously he served as a post-doctoral researcher at the University of Oxford’s Institute of Cognitive and Evolutionary Anthropology, and a Global Advisor at the International Committee of the Red Cross. He is also a Research Associate at the Centre on Conflict, Development and Peacebuilding in Geneva, Switzerland. Brian is completing a doctorate at the University of Oxford based on seven months of fieldwork in Misrata, Libya during the 2011 uprising. He conducted ethnographic research with fighting groups in Misrata, studying cognition, group bonding and organisational morphology.

His research has appeared in a range of media including The Guardian, Financial Times and Nature; he has also served as a commentator on BBC World Service. He has published with Oxford University Press and in various journals, including the Journal for Conflict Resolution and PS: Political Science and Politics. Prior to resuming academics, Brian worked for 14 years in more than a dozen conflict-affected countries as a dialogue specialist with the United Nations and various other international organizations. He has also taught the UN System Staff College course on “Applied Conflict Analysis for Prevention and Peacebuilding.”
Supervisors: Prof. Harvey Whitehouse

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Oliver P Richmond

The University of Manchester

Serhiy Kudelia

Baylor University

Remo Caponi

University of Cologne

James M. Dorsey

Nanyang Technological University

Armando Marques-Guedes

UNL - New University of Lisbon

Gary Feinman

Field Museum

Keith David Watenpaugh

University of California, Davis

Jerome Drevon

Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID), Geneva

John Heathershaw

University of Exeter

Veena Das

Johns Hopkins University

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Russia Weaponization of Canada's far Right and far Left to Undermine Support for Ukraine

International journal, Jun 17, 2024

Saudi Arabia's currency misalignment and international competitiveness, accounting for geopolitical risks and the super-contango oil market

Resources Policy, Aug 1, 2021

It is important to assess Saudi Arabia's economic performance, because its role in the global oil... more It is important to assess Saudi Arabia's economic performance, because its role in the global oil market and how its actions are perceived by international investors have global consequences. We study Saudi Arabia's global competitiveness, accounting for geopolitical risks, productivity, and the role of oil as a commodity and financial asset. We use the net cost-of-carry to capture the oil market risk premium and the super-contango oil market, and include military funding and government expenditure to account for anticipatory and reactive military funding in dealing with likely internal and external threats. Following Clark and MacDonald (1999, 2004) and Fidora et al. (2020), we develop a vector error correction model (VECM) that accurately reflects Saudi Arabia's economy and employ a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) to estimate currency misalignment as a measure of international competitiveness. We find that domestic productivity is Saudi Arabia's weakness. Rather than being driven by endogenous productivity, Saudi Arabia's competitiveness is largely explained by exogenous factors: global demand for oil as both a commodity and a financial asset, and geopolitical events that diminish competition in the global oil market. Favorable oil market conditions are advantageous, but super-contango episodes are detrimental to the Saudi economy. Saudi Arabia's competitiveness and recovery from the 2020 shocks hinge on the recovery of global demand, the speed of the energy transition, and investors' sentiments to invest in the oil sector. By engaging in trade wars, Saudi Arabia risks accelerating how quickly its own resources and assets become stranded. The 2020 cooperation between OPEC+ and G20 members to stabilize the oil market is commendable, because it will positively impact the global recovery in 2021-2022.

Brian McQuinn

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