Papers by Jakkie (Jacobus) Cilliers
Springer eBooks, 2021
In this concluding chapter Cilliers presents a combined Close the Gap scenario that integrates th... more In this concluding chapter Cilliers presents a combined Close the Gap scenario that integrates the eleven scenarios that were modelled in the previous chapters and compares the impact with the Current Path prospects on dimensions such as income growth, economic size, impact on extreme poverty and carbon emissions. The chapter then moves on to compare the impact of the scenarios with one another. The results differ for low, lowermiddle and upper-income countries as well as over time. The differences are illustrated with reference to improvements for each income group in 2030, 2040 and 2050. The chapter then sketches out a broad description of a 'standard economic growth model' that emerges from the preceding analysis. It concludes by pointing to the similarities and differences compared to China's recent history.
Springer eBooks, 2021
In this chapter, Cilliers assesses historical and present conflict dynamics across Africa and how... more In this chapter, Cilliers assesses historical and present conflict dynamics across Africa and how they relate to governance, demographics and socioeconomics. Woven throughout is a discussion on the role of peacekeepers and external involvement more broadly, the surge of terrorism in Africa and how these two phenomena bear upon one another. It assesses the origins, nature and implications of the declining trends in armed conflict and the emergence of urban protests as the key feature of violence and instability in much of Africa. In an alternative future scenario, Cilliers assesses what development outcomes Africa could expect if it were to succeed in reducing levels of instability in a scenario named Silencing the Guns.
African Studies Review, Sep 1, 1988
Social Science Research Network, May 14, 2018
As Ramaphosa’s government shifts foreign policy direction, an analysis of future global power pro... more As Ramaphosa’s government shifts foreign policy direction, an analysis of future global power provides new insights.
Afrique contemporaine, 2004
Since domestic terrorism is already endemic to Africa, the future threat potential in the contine... more Since domestic terrorism is already endemic to Africa, the future threat potential in the continent lies in a complex combination of domestic and international terrorism. Africa may come to play a central role in international terrorism. The motivation, means, and targets all exist and the opportunities will not go unheeded for much longer.
African Security Review, 2005
Extracted from text ... 120 African Security Review 14(2) ? 2005 Al Venter is well known in milit... more Extracted from text ... 120 African Security Review 14(2) ? 2005 Al Venter is well known in military circles. He has written twenty books since 1969 ranging from accounts of insurgency wars in Guinea Bissau, Angola, the former Rhodesia and in Africa generally. For the last 25 years, Venter has served as correspondent for a number of the Jane's publications, including International Defence Review, Defence Weekly, Terrorism and Security Monitor. He knows what he is writing about and clearly has sympathy with soldiering, with mercenaries and anything to do with guns - hence almost a chapter (one of twenty four) devoted to extolling the ..
Journal of Modern African Studies, Jun 1, 2002
... Pp. . pbk.). Despite its laborious title, this excellent study by Tony Hodges must rank as... more ... Pp. . pbk.). Despite its laborious title, this excellent study by Tony Hodges must rank as one of the best on Angola in many years. Hodges is an acknowledged Angolan expert and has written extensively on the country. ...
The Future of Africa, 2021
In this concluding chapter Cilliers presents a combined Close the Gap scenario that integrates th... more In this concluding chapter Cilliers presents a combined Close the Gap scenario that integrates the eleven scenarios that were modelled in the previous chapters and compares the impact with the Current Path prospects on dimensions such as income growth, economic size, impact on extreme poverty and carbon emissions. The chapter then moves on to compare the impact of the scenarios with one another. The results differ for low, lower-middle and upper-income countries as well as over time. The differences are illustrated with reference to improvements for each income group in 2030, 2040 and 2050. The chapter then sketches out a broad description of a ‘standard economic growth model’ that emerges from the preceding analysis. It concludes by pointing to the similarities and differences compared to China’s recent history.
The Future of Africa, 2021
In this chapter Cilliers provides an overview of trends in education in Africa and compares that ... more In this chapter Cilliers provides an overview of trends in education in Africa and compares that with progress in other regions. In addition to a review of common educational outcomes such as measuring years of schooling, he places attention on the poor quality of education and roles of gender exclusion. That is followed by a summary of future education requirements and a scenario, Boosting Education, that explores the impact of improvements in the quality and quantity of education in Africa while taking advantage of technology to promote learning outcomes and human development.
Institute for Security Studies Papers, Aug 1, 2003
In the preparation for the AU Summit, the dominant issue was the election of the 10 Commissioners... more In the preparation for the AU Summit, the dominant issue was the election of the 10 Commissioners for the Commission of the African Union. The chairman and the deputy chairman of the Commission have to be elected directly by the heads of state, and the remaining eight commissioners by the Executive Council. Similar to the Commission of the European Union, the AU Commission is the engine of the Union and the quality of the commissioners that are elected is key to the functioning of the AU.
and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original ... more and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this book are included in the book's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book's Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
Social Science Research Network, Jun 1, 2017
The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) partners to build knowledge and skills that secure Afric... more The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) partners to build knowledge and skills that secure Africa's future. Our goal is to enhance human security as a means to achieve sustainable peace and prosperity. The ISS is an African non-profit organisation with offices in South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia and Senegal. Our work covers transnational crimes, migration, maritime security and development, peace operations, crime prevention and criminal justice, peacebuilding, and the analysis of conflict and governance. Using our networks and influence, we provide timely and credible analysis, practical training and technical assistance to governments and civil society. This promotes better policy and practice, because senior officials can make informed decisions about how to deal with Africa's human security challenges.
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Papers by Jakkie (Jacobus) Cilliers
On the one hand, the country is a continental leader in information and communications technology (ICT) and has relatively well-developed health and education systems. Despite average incomes in the country (about US$1 380) being at the very low end of the World Bank lower-middle-income country threshold (US$1 006 to US$3 955), Kenya has relatively good outcomes on a number of human development indicators. For example, people in Kenya have, on average, more years of education in the adult population (over the age of 25) and longer life expectancy (by about five years) than people living in other lower-middle income
African countries. The country is also a relative island of stability in a strategic – if turbulent – region, and scores above the average for other lower-middle-income African countries on various measures of
social equality and government efficiency.
On the other hand, the country suffers from a significant infrastructure deficit, and a series of corruption scandals cast a long shadow over development prospects in the country. Although Kenya scores high on
a number of governance measures, access to basic services is still among the lowest of any lower-middle income country.
People in other lower-middle-income countries around the world are more than 80% more likely to have access to an improved sanitation facility and about 35% more likely to have access to clean water than people living in Kenya. This in a country that scores above the lower-middle-income average on the World Bank Government Effectiveness measure, the World Bank Regulatory Quality measure and the Economic Freedom Index from Fraser House.
Kenya has somehow managed to support the development of its human potential relatively well despite having a substantial deficit of core infrastructure such as potable water, improved sanitation facilities,
housing and, until recently, electricity. If the government of Kenya is able to manage small improvements in health and education while making a significant push to improve core infrastructure and transparency in
governance, the country will be much better positioned to achieve significant gains across a broader range of measures of human well-being. If, however, service delivery stalls and the prospect of natural resource
wealth exacerbates corruption and poor governance, Kenya will miss the opportunity to harness its full potential and could even be at increased risk of social instability surrounding the 2022 election.
To promote more inclusive economic growth and improve human development outcomes for a broader segment of the population, the government will need to strategically sequence investment across a number of key areas. The core challenge will be to expand access to underserved populations in areas where the country is currently underperforming relative to its peers, without sacrificing recent gains made in areas such as health and education. This report explores Kenya’s recent development trajectory across a number of core development systems using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting tool – developed and housedat the Frederick S Pardee Center for International Futures (Pardee Center) at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver.
This report also examines trends and analyses data to show how the country arrived at where it is today. It then presents a likely development trajectory out to 2040 – referred to as the Current Path or Stuck in
Traffic scenario. Finally, the report introduces two scenarios (Tuko Kazi and Bila Hopes) that represent two very different paths for Kenya. In all instances the forecasts represent five-year policy pushes from 2019 to
2023. The effects of those interventions are then explored out until 2040, and in some cases beyond. In the positive Tuko Kazi scenario the Kenyan government makes targeted investments in a number of key areas where the country is performing below average relative to its continental peers. In addition to comparing Kenya to the continent as a whole, a number of comparison groups were selected and used throughout the report for benchmarking and to provide context about how Kenya is doing relative to other countries (for more information see section 1.5). These investments include improving access to basic infrastructure such as clean water and improved sanitation (WASH) facilities, increasing the productivity of
the agricultural sector and maintaining gains made in health and education. The result is that the economy is more than 14% larger in 2040 than in the Stuck in Traffic forecast, there are about 4.5 million fewer people living in extreme poverty and more than 200 000 fewer children suffering from undernutrition.
In the negative Bila Hopes scenario investment in human development stalls, the quality of governance declines and the government pursues some questionable development projects. This causes service
delivery to slowly deteriorate (over the next five years) while social tensions mount in the run-up to and wake of the 2022 presidential election. In this scenario Kenya’s economy is about 14% smaller in 2040 than in the Stuck in Traffic forecast, the average Kenyan is about US$500 poorer, and infant mortality is about 17% higher.
The Tuko Kazi and Bila Hopes scenarios serve to realistically frame the wide band of possibilities facing the country. The actual path that Kenya will follow will likely fall somewhere in between the two scenarios. Nonetheless, using quantitative models to explore the implications of certain policies can help decision makers get a better sense of the trade-offs around respective policy choices.