Papers by Dr. Ahmed S. Hassan
Journal of Mathematical and Fundamental Sciences, 2020
Based on historical observations of summers for the period from 2004 to 2018 with a focus on dail... more Based on historical observations of summers for the period from 2004 to 2018 with a focus on daily maximum and minimum air temperatures and wind speed recorded at 0600 GMT, a non-linear regression hypothesis is developed for forecasting daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) in arid areas such as Baghdad International airport station, which has a hot climate with no cloud cover or rain. Observations with dust storm events were excluded, thus this hypothesis could be used to predict daily Tmax on any day during summers characterized by fair weather. Using mean annual daily temperature range, daily minimum temperature, and the trend of maximum temperature with wind speed, Tmax was forecasted and then compared to those recorded by meteorological instruments. To improve the accuracy of the hypothesis, daily forecast errors, bias, and mean absolute error were analyzed to detect their characteristics through calculating relative frequencies of occurrence. At the end of this analysis, a valu...
Evaluation of Geopotential Height at 500 hpa with Rainfall Events: A Case Study of Iraq
Maǧallaẗ ʻulūm al-mustanṣiriyyaẗ, Dec 30, 2022
The geopotential height at 500 hPa is a key factor in determining the weather and climate conditi... more The geopotential height at 500 hPa is a key factor in determining the weather and climate conditions around the world. This paper aims to study the effect of 500hpa geopotential height in Iraq weather from a synoptic perspective and evaluation the variation at 500hpa geopotential height. On (26-29 January 2013), a case of atmospheric instability affected Iraq, where a heavy amount of rain fell over Iraq on 28 January 2013, the amount of rain that fell on Kirkuk was about (72.2mm). The result showed that when the upper-level trough stretches from Europe towards the Mediterranean, it will enhance surface low pressure. In addition, the advection of moisture from lower latitudes resulted in a situation of instability that brought severe rain to Iraq. during this period the value of geopotential height decreased sharply. The decrease in the value of geopotential height is an indicator of turbulent weather when compared to surrounding regions.
Iraqi Journal of Science
Rainfall in the mid-latitudes is highly related to the synoptic pattern at the upper-levels, ... more Rainfall in the mid-latitudes is highly related to the synoptic pattern at the upper-levels, this study focuses on the relationship between 500 hPa geopotential height patterns and the cyclone at the surface. Synoptic studies that there is a correlation between cyclone at the surface and deepening of the trough at the upper in the mid-latitudes. The results show that when the upper trough is situated over the eastern Mediterranean, this will enhance the advection of warm and moist air from the tropical region, which will cause baroclinic instability over Iraq, leading to heavy precipitation and torrents in some situations.
Iraqi Journal of Physics
A cut-off low is a closed low with a low value of geopotential height at the upper atmospheric le... more A cut-off low is a closed low with a low value of geopotential height at the upper atmospheric levels that has been fully detached (cut-off) from the westerly flow and move independently. A cut-off low causes extreme rainfall events in the mid-latitudes regions. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the cut-off low at 500 hPa over Iraq from a synoptic point of view and the behavior of geopotential height at 500 hPa. To examine the association of the cut-off low at 500 hPa with rainfall events across Iraq, two case studies of heavy rainfall events from different times were conducted. The results showed that the cut-off low at 500 hPa with a low value of geopotential height will strengthen the low-pressure system at the surface, leading to a case of atmospheric instability over Iraq and a significant amount of rain will fall if the moisture is available.
Baghdad University , 2023
Rainfall in the mid-latitudes is highly related to the synoptic pattern at the upperlevels, this ... more Rainfall in the mid-latitudes is highly related to the synoptic pattern at the upperlevels, this study focuses on the relationship between 500 hPa geopotential height patterns and the cyclone at the surface. Synoptic studies show that there is a correlation between cyclone at the surface and deepening of the trough at the upper in the mid-latitudes. The results show that when the upper trough is situated over the eastern Mediterranean, this will enhance the advection of warm and moist air from the tropical region, which will cause baroclinic instability over Iraq, leading to heavy precipitation and torrents in some situations.
Al-Mustansiriyah Journal of Sciences, 2015
The climate system is very sensitive to the changes caused by the temperature of sea surface, whi... more The climate system is very sensitive to the changes caused by the temperature of sea surface, which extremely affecting it ,and to understand this relationship, the coefficient oscillation of the North Atlantic and its association with climate variables, which include all anomalies of surface minimum and maximum temperatures .So, were calculated this study ,used both the National Center (U.S.) for the environment and forecasting (NCEP) to calculate the coefficient of fluctuation of the North Atlantic, and the General Authority form meteorological and seismic monitoring data to calculate the anomaly of minimum and maximum surface temperatures of (January, April, July, October) for the period (1989-2010). The results shows that the climatic changes represented by anomaly surface temperatures and pressure over Baghdad city is associated with the coefficient of fluctuation of the North Atlantic(NAO) coefficient of correlation value equals (0.168 and 0.201), respectively, while the value of the correlation coefficient between the coefficient of fluctuation of the North Atlantic(NAO) and surface pressure anomaly equals (-0.240), so impact of both these climate variables and the coefficient of the North Atlantic oscillation are more in winter than in summer.
Al-Mustansiriyah Journal of Science, 2020
Analysis of the jet stream is diagnostic over Baghdad for period studies 2012 to 2014 using Radio... more Analysis of the jet stream is diagnostic over Baghdad for period studies 2012 to 2014 using Radiosonde data and synoptic charts. The source of data is Iraq Meteorological Organization and Seismology (IMOS). Similar way for weather forecasts to identify areas, forecasters show that area has good predictability under jet stream case. The jet stream is happening clearly realized under the climatic conditions like temperature, humidity and geopotential height for upper layer. Two levels 300hPa and 500hPa is the best way to determine the current jet. Maximum frequency of jet stream happened in April and July in 500hPa that equal 13 times and in 300hPa happened 14 times in May. This study showed that the occurrence of cases of the jet stream is becoming increasingly volatile and decreasingly during 2012 and gradually increased in 2014 where that recorded in 2014.
Indian Journal of Public Health Research and Development, 2018
Calculate correlation analysis of decadal CO2 emission throughout three kind of fossil fuel solid... more Calculate correlation analysis of decadal CO2 emission throughout three kind of fossil fuel solid, liquid, and gas. It is the principle anthropogenic greenhouse gas that affects the Earth radiative balance. Emission intensity is the average emission rate of a given pollutant from a given source relative to intensity of a specifc activity. Burning of carbon based fuel since the industrial revelation has rapidly increased concentrations atmospheric carbon dioxide, as same of data source of this work. The results shown the CO2 emission from gaseous fuel consumption increased 10 times for frst decadal 1045.10 kt than last decadal, whereas since 2004 not less than 10000 kt. The CO2 emission from liquid fuel consumption increased 10.4 times than last decadal that was 86759 kt, while the same emission from solid fuel consumption decreased four times that last two decadal was near to zero kt. The percentage CO2 emission of total fuel combustion for three sectors of life carried out: CO2 emi...
Al-Mustansiriyah Journal of Science, 2020
Drought in Iraq was assessed using three drought indices for two different time periods, past per... more Drought in Iraq was assessed using three drought indices for two different time periods, past period from 1970 to 2015, and future period from 2016 to 2050 for 4 stations in Iraq. These indices named: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Percentage of Precipitation Anomaly (PPA), and Z-Score Index (ZSI). The main sources of data were the monthly rainfall archive from Iraqi Meteorological Organization and Seismology (IMOS) for past period, and projection monthly precipitation data from Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP4.5) for Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) affiliate to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for future period. The results shown good correlation of among 3 indices, with different rank of them, were lowest rank was 0.85. The three indices refer to were good evaluate the drought severity of Iraq. Found too the best index was PPA during past period, and the significant index was ZSI for the future period. The North of Iraq (Mosul Stat...
Przegląd Naukowy Inżynieria i Kształtowanie Środowiska, 2021
Seasonal variability is the complex non-linear response of the physical climate system. There are... more Seasonal variability is the complex non-linear response of the physical climate system. There are two types of natural variability: those external and internal to the climate system. In any given season, natural variability may cause the climate to be different than its long-term average. This study examines with the seasonal variation of the maximum temperatures during the summer season. In addition, the maximum temperatures in May become close to the characteristics of the summer season. The monthly data for maximum temperature of May, June and July were used from Iraqi Meteorological Organization and Seismology (IMOS) for 47 years from 1970 to 2017 for Baghdad city. This period was long enough to estimate the range of approaching maximum temperature (Tmax) May to summer. Results revealed a significant Tmax for Baghdad during the second period (1992–2017) and shown similar behavior of Tmax in May to June and July; on the contrary that first period (1970–1991). In second period, t...
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) plays significant role on daily human life, agriculture, econo... more Numerical weather prediction (NWP) plays significant role on daily human life, agriculture, economy and disaster warning. The main aim of this study is to predict (24, 48, 72 and 96) hours ahead of forecast mid-latitude (500) hpa geopotential height by solution of barotropic vorticity equation. Inputted wind velocity was obtained from (ECMWF) for (500) hpa pressure level on one selected day for both winter and summer. The result shows that the model have good accuracy in predict low and high systems but there is a little shifting in determining systems location, And the model present same geopotential height gradient with pattern but it has a shifting from actual pattern. Also The model sensitivity test are carried out, which shows that efficient prediction is below horizontal wind value of (60 m/h), while vice versa for high wind lead to loss of predictability.
Przegląd Naukowy Inżynieria i Kształtowanie Środowiska, 2021
Fossil fuel is the main source for CO2 emissions that causes global warming. This fact is the sta... more Fossil fuel is the main source for CO2 emissions that causes global warming. This fact is the starting point for this paper, that consider on three different sources of data: crude oil used to calculate CO2 emissions for Iraq for the period from 1980 to 2018; annual data of total CO2 emissions available from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) for Iraq and the world for the period from 1980 to 2014; and CO2 concentrations for Iraq for the period from 2002 to 2006 and for the world for the period from 1980 to 2018. The result is a multifaceted according to the dataset sources. Carbon dioxide emissions calculated from Iraqi crude oil was increased from 1.29 Mt in 2012 to 1.97 Mt in 2018. The world and Iraq CO2 emissions with different slop of average line that was 0.5 for world, 0.003 for Iraq, while increased exponential function from 2008 to 2014 to reach 36 and 0.17 Mt, respectively. The highest value of Iraqi CO2 concentration was 403 ppm in 2016, while the glob...
Przegląd Naukowy Inżynieria i Kształtowanie Środowiska, 2020
Tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a trace gas with important impact on atmospheric chemistry... more Tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a trace gas with important impact on atmospheric chemistry, human health and a key pollutant in particular cities, measured from space since the mid-1990s by the GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, and GOME-2 instruments. This study present ten years (monthly and yearly averaged) dataset from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) used to investigate tropospheric NO2 characteristics and variations over Iraq during 2005–2014. Annual NO2 shows an elevation from the northern to the southern and highest values was at central parts of Iraq. Monthly distributions revels higher values NO2 in winter and summer than spring and autumn seasons, and rising NO2 throughout study period over industrial and crowded urban zones. The trend analysis over Baghdad shows a linear growth rate 9.8% per year with an annual average (5.6·1015 molecules per 1 cm2). The air mass trajectory analysis as hotspot regions shows seasonal fluctuations between winter and summer seasons depend on wea...
Al-Mustansiriyah Journal of Science, 2018
Air temperature is considered one of the important atmosphere elements because of its wide effect... more Air temperature is considered one of the important atmosphere elements because of its wide effects on the climate variables and climate system, besides its effects on the human life. This research aims at estimating increasing of air temperature in both of city center and rural side based on increasing of population in city center and more less than rural side. The sources of data come from two stations; the Baghdad International Airport station of the General Authority for Meteorology and Seismic Monitoring, and the station of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences affiliated to the Faculty of Science, University of Mustansiriyah. Supported data are monthly average for mean air temperature. Results showed that there was a strong tendency for a temperature increasing during July and October. The effect of population density on the temperature was clear and significance. Where the difference between the two stations after the addition of the impact for October was 7.4oC.
Climate change is considered as the most important issue that controls on the climate system and ... more Climate change is considered as the most important issue that controls on the climate system and phenomenon. Rapidly increase in CO2 emissions lead to significant impact on global warming which affects all areas of life on Earth. The objective of this study investigates the aspect of the relationship between per capita CO2 emissions and economic growth of Iraq. The two different of datasets were used; CO2 emission and gross domestic population GDP for long period over 50 years extended from (1960) to (2010) over Iraq. The CO2 emissions data came from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC). The results showed that total CO2 emissions had high increased in last decade to reach 1.8 times than total period. The high fluctuations for per capita CO2 appeared in 2010. there was clear increased in CO2 emission and GDP values with time, the relation between them provide increased trend along the study period, and the per capita GDP is proportional with CO2 emission over time but ...
Al-Mustansiriyah Journal of Science, 2021
Carbon dioxide intensity (CI) refers to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion that... more Carbon dioxide intensity (CI) refers to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion that mainly used for electricity, heat, transport, and other life requirements. The objective of this paper is better to understand CI as an indicator of Global Warming, and compared its behavior with two other variables (total CO2 emissions, and CO2 emissions per capita). The main data sources an available and activity data from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC). Three annual variables used in this study; CI, total CO2 emissions, and CO2 per capita for fossil fuel emissions during long time series from (1971 to 2018).The results of CI shown that the highest value found out at the beginning of the study in 1971 was (7.188 kg/kg oil equivalent), and then decreased till reach to lower value was (1.707 kg/kg oil equivalent) in 1997, after that slowly increased in the last decade near to (3.63 kg/kg oil equivalent). The total CO2 emissions were strongly related to oil prediction...
Assessment CO2 Emission Intensity of Crude Oil Production in Iraq
IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 2020
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Intensity (CDEI) in Iraq correlated between carbon dioxide emission (kg ... more Carbon Dioxide Emissions Intensity (CDEI) in Iraq correlated between carbon dioxide emission (kg CO2) and crude oil production (COP) (kg oil equivalent). This relationship is important for industry and energy sectors to the achievement of their economic and environmental goal, then to know a common pattern of emissions intensity. The sources of data set from Carbon Dioxide Information analysis center (CDIAC), contain: total CO2 emission, COP from Iraqi Ministry of oil and Iraqi crude oil production increased over time and about (more than 80%) from Basra city. Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) was calculated. CDEI was nonlinear behavior that high level in the 1970s then decreased to reach 1.707 kg co2 / kgoil equivalent in 1997, and CDEI was more sensitive to COP than total CO2 emissions. EKC maximum values present in early 1970s and in 2004 present highest value was (0.082 metric ton / current US$ person). COP was unstable level, fluctuation between (1-3) mb/d, till reach 4.29 mb/d...
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Papers by Dr. Ahmed S. Hassan