Papers by Muhammad Handry Imansyah
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets
Purpose ― This paper estimates the possibility of a financial crisis in Indonesia using an early ... more Purpose ― This paper estimates the possibility of a financial crisis in Indonesia using an early warning system (EWMS) model. Method ― A quantitative EWMS model has been developed to detect a potential financial crisis in 2023 based on the econometric logistic probability model (Logit) Findings ― Based on the model estimates, Indonesia is expected to enter a financial crisis without adequate macroeconomic policies in the next 12 to 24 months. In recent years, Indonesia has implemented prudent macroeconomic policies such as increasing the Bank Indonesia policy rate and sustaining the state budget to avoid the impact of a deep financial crisis. Implications ― To avoid the potential for further financial crises, Indonesia must implement a wider range of crisis mitigation policies. Originality/value ― Although many argue that financial crises are predictable, it has been demonstrated in the literature that little is known about how to prevent them. This paper contributes to providing em...
Polish Journal of Environmental Studies
Currently, various countries have begun to implement economic development in a sustainable direct... more Currently, various countries have begun to implement economic development in a sustainable direction. A country's economic development orientation shifts from a brown economy focusing on increasing economic growth to a green economy concentrating on environmental sustainability. A tangible form of concern from various countries for environmental damage is available such as the Paris Agreement. The agreement contains countries' efforts to reduce emissions since 2015 at the United Nations Climate Change Conference. So far, several countries have allocated various stimuli to move towards a green economy. For example, the
JIEP: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan
The goal of this researchis determine the contribution of GRDP, Population, Retribution and Taxes... more The goal of this researchis determine the contribution of GRDP, Population, Retribution and Taxes to PAD. The analytical method used is panel data regression with classical assumption testing. The outcome of the multicollinearity test is, there is no multicollinearity variables in the model. The results of the heteroscedasticity test as a whole are independent variables in the regression model free from heteroscedasticity problems. Results of autocorrelation test show that regression model value does not contain autocorrelation. Based on the results of the GRDP Regression test, Population, Taxes and Regional Retribution have a positive and significant influence on Regional Income. Based on the results of the F test there is a significant effect between all variables simultaneously on (Y). While the outcome of the t-test show that GDP, taxes and regional retribution have a significant effect on PAD. While the population has no significant effect.
Jakartaxxvi, 150 p, Tab, 21 cm
Page 1. KEUANGAN DI INDONESIA DAPATKAH DIRAMALKAN? Kata Sambutan: Dr. Dradjat H. Wibowo Dr. Muham... more Page 1. KEUANGAN DI INDONESIA DAPATKAH DIRAMALKAN? Kata Sambutan: Dr. Dradjat H. Wibowo Dr. Muhammad Handry Imansyah Page 2. Buku ini terbit pada momen yang tepat, saat dunia dan Indonesia dilanda krisis keuangan! ...
JIEP: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 2021
Muhammad Ervan Ghani (2020). Identification of Leading Sektors in the Economy of Banjarmasin City... more Muhammad Ervan Ghani (2020). Identification of Leading Sektors in the Economy of Banjarmasin City: Analysis of Input Output. Advisor Prof. M. Handry Imansyah, MAM, Ph.D. This study aims to determine the leading sektors and their role in the economy in the city of BanjarmasinThis study uses analysis tools to determine the leading sektors through the calculation of Location quotient, Input - Output Analysis. By using secondary data in the form of gross regional domestic product according to employment and Expenditures on Current prices, Banjarmasin city labor, and BPS IO Table.The results showed that the leading sektors in the city of Banjarmasin were dominated by the secondary sektor, namely (1) community services and others (2) financial institutions, real estate and company services, and (3) the manufacturing industry.There are limitations in this research, namely, some data does not reach 17 sektors, so the analysis data is completely converted into 9 sektors and this research use...
JIEP: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 2021
This study aims to determine the potential sectors in improving the economy of Banjar Regency. T... more This study aims to determine the potential sectors in improving the economy of Banjar Regency. This study uses input-output analysis to identify potential sectors through the calculation of Forward & Backward Linkage, and Multiplier effects. Input-output table was constructed by deriving Kalimantan Selatan Input-Output Table with an adjustment using Quotient Location. An adjustment using secondary data such as Gross Regional Domestic Product by sectors and by Expenditure, including employment data by sectors in Kabupaten BanjarThe results showed that (1) the processing industry; (2) Transportation, Warehousing and Communication; (3) Finance, Real Estate and Company Services; (4) Electricity, Gas and Water, (5) Construction is a potential sector in Banjar Regency. This sector needs to be developed because expanding this sector is expected to encourage other sectors.The limitations of this research are the limited data obtained and the data used are only the results of documentation ...
Syntax Idea, 2021
This research aims to find out the impact of government spending in the education, health and inf... more This research aims to find out the impact of government spending in the education, health and infrastructure sectors on inequality and poverty levels in Indonesia during the period 2014-2018. The study used secondary data and used an estimate of panel data with the Eviews 11 statistical application. The data used is government expenditure taken from APBD, gini ratio rate and percentage of poor people in 122 districts / cities. The results showed that government spending in the health and infrastructure sector has not had an impact on district / city inequality in Indonesia. Only government expenditure in the education sector has an impact on district/city inequality in Indonesia. Similarly, government spending in the education, health and infrastructure sectors has not had an impact on poverty in Indonesia
The debt crisis in the EU and the U.S. has significant potential impact to the economy of Indones... more The debt crisis in the EU and the U.S. has significant potential impact to the economy of Indonesia. U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2008 has a strong impact on Indonesian economy, where Indonesia's GDP slowed down to below 5% during 2009. Until July 2011, Indonesia's export growth is starting to grow negatively on some sectors when the crises in the EU and the U.S. have started. Although the slowdown does not occur in all sectors, the impact spreads to other sectors as the existence of industrial linkage among sectors. The objective of the study is to look at the potential impact on the sector level on various indicators such as GDP (value added), indirect tax receipts and business income due to the crisis. Input-output analysis will be used in the simulation. Indonesia Input- Output Table of 2005 is applied as the data base. The results show that if exports to the EU drop, the economic growth will decline by -0.45% from the base case, and if the export to the U.S. drop a...
It is believed that shariah banks have a higher resilience than that of conventional banks during... more It is believed that shariah banks have a higher resilience than that of conventional banks during global financial turbulence. However, this is not quite true. The objective of this paper is to explore the performance of shariah banks and conventional bank during the global financial turbulence since 2008 in terms of key financial indicators such as ROA, NPL, BOPO, CAR and others. The method of this study is descriptive analysis of some key financial indicators. The comparison of some key financial indicators during the global financial turbulence shows the performance of both banks. The result of this study is mixed that there some key financial indicators are better on shariah banks than that of conventional banks, however, some other indicators are much better on conventional bank than that of shariah bank. Keywords: Shariah Bank, Conventional Bank, Global Financial Turbulence
At-Taradhi: Jurnal Studi Ekonomi, 2017
Pengalaman krisis keuangan global yang telah terjadi menunjukkan kebijakan moneter perlu untuk me... more Pengalaman krisis keuangan global yang telah terjadi menunjukkan kebijakan moneter perlu untuk memperluas tujuannya, yakni tidak hanya terpaku terhadap tujuan tradisional kebijakan moneter (inflasi) namun juga memperhatikan harga asset. Struktural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) dengan restriksi jangka pendek digunakan dalam penelitian ini untuk mengidentifikasi respon dan dampak kebijakan moneter terhadap harga perumahan dan inflasi termasuk juga variabel makro ekonomi lainnya (output dan nilai tukar) di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data triwulan selama periode 2001Q1-2005Q4. Hasil simulasi dari model SVAR menunjukkan suku bunga kebijakan (BI Rate) berdampak signifikan terhadap harga perumahan dan tingkat inflasi. Kebijakan moneter yang dilakukan melalui perubahan BI Rate merespon secara cepat terhadap shock inflasi, output dan nilai tukar namun tidak memberikan respon terhadap fluktuasi harga perumahan. Model yang dikembangkan dalam penelitian ini juga m...
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 2019
This paper presents spatial linkages on calculations of spill-over and feed-back effects of World... more This paper presents spatial linkages on calculations of spill-over and feed-back effects of World input-output tables, which is aggregated specifically into six-Asian countries includes China, Indonesia, India, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, plus Australia, United States, and the Rest of the World. The results showed that, firstly output multipliers in six Asian countries tend to increase during 2000–2014, indicating a consistent economic growth. Secondly, except China, output multipliers occurred in other countries tend to increase. Thirdly, in 2000, the United States and Japan were two countries receiving highest output spill-over. However, in year 2014, most of output spill-over moved to China. India and Indonesia received only small part of spill-over from other countries. Fourthly, the highest feed-back effect occurred in China and Japan. The smallest feed-back effect occurred in India and Indonesia. China had smallest spill-over effect but received the highest feed-back effect. ---...
The debt crisis in the European Union (EU) and the U.S. has significant potential impact on the e... more The debt crisis in the European Union (EU) and the U.S. has significant potential impact on the economy of Indonesia. U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2008 has a strong impact on Indonesian economy, that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) slowed down to below 5% during 2009. Until October 2012, Indonesia’s export growth is starting to grow negatively on some sectors when the crises in the EU and the U.S. have started or overall grew by -6%. Although the slowdown does not occur in all sectors, the impact spreads to other sectors as the existence of industrial linkage among sectors. The objective of the study is to look at the impact on the sector level on various indicators such as GDP value added) and employment. Input-output analysis will be used in the simulation. Indonesia input-output table of 2005 is applied as the data base. The simulation results show that if exports decline occurs in the U.S., the economic growth will be -0.20%. Meanwhile, if it occurs in the EU, the ...
Kalimantan Selatan yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah pusat sebagai pintu gerbang Ibukota Negara dan... more Kalimantan Selatan yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah pusat sebagai pintu gerbang Ibukota Negara dan Penyangga Program Nasional Food Estate di Kalimantan Tengah memiliki peranan penting terhadap angka laju pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Pembangunan ekonomi yang tinggi dan bersifat jangka panjang menjadi target pembangunan daerah. Peranan sektor pertanian dan pertambangan masih menjadi unggulan yang memiliki tingkat kepekaan yang kuat terhadap permintaan sehingga menjadi penggerak dan pendorong terhadap angka pertumbuhan sektor yang lain. Tingginya angka ketergantungan terhadap sektor pertambangan sebagai penyumbang angka terbesar bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi di Kalimantan Selatan menjadi peluang dan tantangan pemerintah di masa yang akan datang, hal ini terlihat pada laju pertumbuhan ekonomi berdasarkan PDRB atas harga konstan yang fluktuatif dan cenderung penurunan (BPS tahun 2020) dibandingkan provinsi lainnya di Kalimantan akibat turunnya ekspor batubara dan alih fungsi lahan dari ...
JIEP: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 2019
The purpose of this study was to see the actual potential of revenue from the retribution of park... more The purpose of this study was to see the actual potential of revenue from the retribution of parkirng services on the edge of the public roads of Banjarmasin City in 2018. The type of research used is descriptive statistics, with a population of 208 parking retribution points in 5 sub-districts of Banjarmasin City and using the Slovin test to determine 22 samples. The data used is primary data obtained from field observations. The analysis techinque used is selecting sampling and standard deviation techniques. Selecting sampling by observasing for 10 minutes parking reception at busy and quiet hours on weekdays and weekends. While the standard deviation is used to see the upper and lower limits of potensial retribution for parking service on the edge of public roads.The results obtained in this study show that the target set is able to cross the lower standard deviation, which means that the performance of the local government, especially the transportation agency, is quite good, bu...
JIEP: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 2021
This study aims to analyze the validity of the Kuznets hypothesis in South Kalimantan Province du... more This study aims to analyze the validity of the Kuznets hypothesis in South Kalimantan Province during the period 2010-2017. Data analysis method used in this study is to use quadratic regression analysis using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method that uses cross section data in 13 districts / cities in South Kalimantan Province in 2010-2017. The analysis in this study was carried out with the help of E-views 9 software. The results in this study indicate that in 2010, 2014 and 2015 the Kuznets hypothesis applies in South Kalimantan while in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, and overall from 2010-2017 the Kuznets hypothesis does not apply in South Kalimantan. Even in 2012 it tends to draw slashes increasing right. And for the other years, it depicts U-shaped curves. Based on the regression results it was found that in 2010 to 2016 and overall in 2010-2017 the data showed no significant effect while the data in 2017 showed a significant effect.
The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of government expenditure on the number of pe... more The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of government expenditure on the number of people who graduate from elementary school, graduate from junior high school, literacy rate 15-24 years, literacy rate 15-55 years, school participation rate 7-12 years, school participation rate 13-15 years, family planning users, immunization, users of water and sanitation in districts/cities in Indonesia. The instrument of this study used panel data regression, which uses panel data of 2016-2019 in districts/cities in Indonesia. The panel data estimation technique used is the standard effect, fixed-effect, and random effect models. Government expenditure is measured using expenditure on education, expenditure on health, and expenditure on infrastructure. The results obtained are that government expenditure on education has a significant effect with 5% on the number of people who graduate from elementary school, the literacy rate of 15-55 years, and the school participation rate of 13-15...
Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 2003
The objective of this paper is to identify the fundamental economic structure (FES), developed by... more The objective of this paper is to identify the fundamental economic structure (FES), developed by Jensen, West, and Hewings (1988), in some regional economies in Indonesia. It is found that fundamental economic structure also exists in Indonesian regional economies which cover secondary and tertiary sectors with the highest significant cells. To some a lesser extent, fundamental economic structure also consists of some primary sectors. The accuracy of the model is acceptable using output multiplier and mean average deviation as indicators. The implication of this finding is to make easier for updating and constructing regional input-output tables by concentrating on the non-fundamental economic structure sectors. Therefore, this finding will contribute in reducing cost to construct or update regional input-output tables in the future.
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Papers by Muhammad Handry Imansyah