Papers by Rebeca Moreno Jiménez
Pioneering Predictive Analytics for Decision-Making in Forced Displacement Contexts
Springer eBooks, 2019
UNHCR has been leading some of the most prominent efforts in research and operational application... more UNHCR has been leading some of the most prominent efforts in research and operational applications of the use of nontraditional sources—including big data—in forced displacement settings. Pioneering the research on predictive analytics for population flow in emergencies, UNHCR created the Winter Cell, a cross-cutting, inter-divisional initiative established to respond to the 2015 Mediterranean refugee crisis. The project identified refugee population flow trends in the routes into Europe, using real-time data about weather conditions and its effects along the routes. Its predecessor, Project Jetson, an applied predictive analytics project, builds on this methodology by estimating the numbers of internally displaced people in Somalia and refugees in the south region of Ethiopia (Dollo Ado) with nontraditional data, including market prices and climate anomalies. This chapter describes the work of UNHCR Innovation in data science research to improve the work of UNHCR in advocacy, emergency preparedness, and operational response.
arXiv (Cornell University), Jul 4, 2023
* Nonetheless, this does not mean phones and access to broadband are spread evenly across, and wi... more * Nonetheless, this does not mean phones and access to broadband are spread evenly across, and within, countries. Often new technologies reproduce and perpetuate existing inequalities.
BMJ Global Health, 2022
The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems... more The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world, exacerbating inequalities and leaving the world’s most vulnerable populations at risk. Epidemiological modelling is vital to guiding evidence-informed or data-driven decision making. In forced displacement contexts, and in particular refugee and internally displaced people (IDP) settlements, it meets several challenges including data availability and quality, the applicability of existing models to those contexts, the accurate modelling of cultural differences or specificities of those operational settings, the communication of results and uncertainties, as well as the alignment of strategic goals between diverse partners in complex situations. In this paper, we systematically review the limited epidemiological modelling work applied to refugee and IDP settlements so far, and discuss challenges and identify lessons learnt from the process. With the ...
Towards an Understanding of Refugee Segregation, Isolation, Homophily and Ultimately Integration in Turkey Using Call Detail Records
Guide to Mobile Data Analytics in Refugee Scenarios, 2019
In this chapter, we contribute a methodological framework for measuring integration through the l... more In this chapter, we contribute a methodological framework for measuring integration through the lens of spatial and social segregation using CDR data. We illustrate the application of this framework using the datasets provided by Turk Telekom. Integration is one of the main durable solutions to refugee crises recognized by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). It is a complex and gradual legal, economic, social and cultural process that burdens both the settling population, and the receiving society. Successful integration requires actions from a variety of stakeholders (including different levels of government, NGOs, welfare service providers, etc.), which can make evaluating the outcomes of targeted programmes and policies extremely difficult. While these generally differ from country to country, UNHCR recognizes a need for standardized indicators that can be used to compare integration across countries and regions, and to assess the success of various efforts. Here, we show how segregation, isolation and homophily can be measured by deriving population estimates from CDRs, and how the evolution of refugees’ communication patterns and mobility traces can provide initial insights into their social integration.
The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems... more The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world, exacerbating inequalities and leaving the world’s most vulnerable populations most affected. Given their density and available infrastructure, refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements can be particularly susceptible to disease spread. Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions can be used to mitigate transmission, and modeling efforts can provide crucial insights on the potential effectiveness of such interventions to help inform decision making processes. In this paper we present an agent-based modeling approach to simulating the spread of disease in refugee and IDP settlements. The model, based on the JUNE open-source framework, is informed by data on geography, demographics, comorbidities, physical infrastructure and other parameters obtained from real-world observations and previous literature. Furthermore, we present a visu...
Journal of International Humanitarian Action, 2021
In the debate on how to improve efficiencies in the humanitarian sector and better meet people’s ... more In the debate on how to improve efficiencies in the humanitarian sector and better meet people’s needs, the argument for the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and automated decision-making (ADMs) systems has gained significant traction and ignited controversy for its ethical and human rights-related implications.Setting aside the implications of introducing unmanned and automated systems in warfare, we focus instead on the impact of the adoption of AI-based ADMs in humanitarian response. In order to maintain the status and protection conferred by the humanitarian mandate, aid organizations are called to abide by a broad set of rules condensed in the humanitarian principles and notably the principles of humanity, neutrality, impartiality, and independence. But how do these principles operate when decision-making is automated?This article opens with an overview of AI and ADMs in the humanitarian sector, with special attention to the concept of algorithmic opacity. It then explores t...
Modeling Population Movements under Uncertainty at the Border in Humanitarian Crises: A Situational Analysis Tool
arXiv (Cornell University), Mar 27, 2023
Humanitarian agencies must be prepared to mobilize quickly in response to complex emergencies, an... more Humanitarian agencies must be prepared to mobilize quickly in response to complex emergencies, and their effectiveness depends on their ability to identify, anticipate, and prepare for future needs. These are typically highly uncertain situations in which predictive modeling tools can be useful but challenging to build. To better understand the need for humanitarian support-including shelter and assistance-and strengthen contingency planning and protection efforts for displaced populations, we present a situational analysis tool to help anticipate the number of migrants and forcibly displaced persons that will cross a border in a humanitarian crisis. The tool consists of: (i) indicators of potential intent to move drawn from traditional and big data sources; (ii) predictive models for forecasting possible future movements; and (iii) a simulation of border crossings and shelter capacity requirements under different conditions. This tool has been specifically adapted to contingency planning in settings of high uncertainty, with an application to the Brazil-Venezuela border during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Papers by Rebeca Moreno Jiménez