Manuscripts by Flavio Lira
Revista de Estudos Eurasiáticos (ISSN: 2965-7970), 2024
Editorial do primeiro número da Revista de Estudos Eurasiáticos.
Dissertação de mestrado, 2008
PT: A presente dissertação faz um estudo sobre as ações de Moscou em relação à Organização do Tra... more PT: A presente dissertação faz um estudo sobre as ações de Moscou em relação à Organização do Tratado do Atlântico Norte – OTAN – desde a concepção desta, em 1949, até o último governo de Vladimir Putin, findo em 2008. O trabalho pretende, além de identificar tais atitudes, apresentar as razões pelas quais a Rússia pode ser a favor ou contrária às ações da OTAN. Os materiais utilizados para a confecção desta dissertação compreendem livros e revistas especializados em Rússia, Eurásia, Geopolítica e Relações Internacionais, periódicos, documentos oficiais e não-oficiais e mapas, havendo, após sua coleta, uma análise histórica.
EN: The current dissertation carries out a study on Moscow’s actions concerning the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – NATO – since its inception, in 1949, until Vladimir Putin’s last administration, which ended in 2008. Besides identifying such behavior, this work seeks to present the reasons why Russia can be in favor or against NATO’s actions. The making of this dissertation was based on books and journals specialized in Russia, Eurasia, Geopolitics and International Relations, periodicals, official and nonofficial documents and maps, all of these being followed by a historical analysis.
Tese de doutorado, 2015
EN: For both the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China, Central Asia has been a z... more EN: For both the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China, Central Asia has been a zone of strategic cooperation since the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. From then on, a security regime encompassing those powers as well as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan has developed. We believe, however, that effective cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is limited in this part of the globe due to the non-development of a (hydrocarbon-based) energy regime that includes all countries in the region under the leadership of Russia and China. To demonstrate this argument we shall present the different international positions and perceptions of those two countries concerning hydrocarbons and their different geopolitical priorities. In addition, we suggest at the end of this study that effective development of a strong and comprehensive cooperation between both countries must stem from a regional security-energy regime that includes Central Asia in a Chinese-Russian logic of mutual management of both security and hydrocarbon flow.
PT: A Ásia Central tem sido, para a Federação Russa e a República Popular da China, uma zona de cooperação estratégica desde o fim da URSS em 1991. Desde então, desenvolve-se um regime de segurança que congrega, além das duas potências, Cazaquistão, Quirguistão, Tadjiquistão, Turcomenistão e Uzbequistão. Acredita-se, porém, que a efetiva cooperação entre Moscou e Pequim é limitada nesta parte do globo devido ao não desenvolvimento de um regime energético (focado em hidrocarbonetos) que envolva todos os países da região e que seja encabeçado por Rússia e China. Para demonstrar isto, busca-se apresentar as diferentes posições internacionais e as percepções destes dois países no tocante aos hidrocarbonetos e às suas diferentes prioridades geopolíticas. Além disto, sugere-se, ao final do trabalho, que um eficaz desenvolvimento de uma cooperação forte e abrangente entre os dois países deve se basear em um regime securitário-energético regional que inclua a Ásia Central em uma lógica sino-russa de gerenciamento mútuo tanto da segurança quanto do fluxo de hidrocarbonetos.
Papers by Flavio Lira
XIX Conferência de Segurança Internacional do Forte de Copacabana, 2022
Monções, 2016
PT: China têm desempenhado sua mais assertiva cooperação em segurança. Neste artigo, apresenta-se... more PT: China têm desempenhado sua mais assertiva cooperação em segurança. Neste artigo, apresenta-se o desenvolvimento histórico de tal colaboração desde o fim da Guerra Fria, assim como o teor dos documentos que embasam a gravitação securitária da Ásia Central em torno de Moscou e Pequim, culminando-se, desta forma, em um regime de segurança centro-asiático liderado por China e Rússia.
EN: Since 1991 Central Asia has been the region where Russia and China have built their most assertive cooperation in security. In this article, we present the historical development of such partnership since the end of the Cold War as well as the nature of the documents which uphold the security gravitation of Central Asia around Moscow and Beijing, resulting in a Central Asian security regime led by China and Russia.
Cadernos de Relações Internacionais e Defesa, 2020
Esta é uma pequena apresentação conjuntural do panorama global do petróleo e, em menor escala, da... more Esta é uma pequena apresentação conjuntural do panorama global do petróleo e, em menor escala, das energias renováveis no contexto de um mundo em pandemia. Nesta análise, serão trazidos dados sobre consumo, produção e preço deste hidrocarboneto, seguidos de uma discussão acerca do impacto sofrido pela indústria de petróleo e as perguntas que se colocam acerca da transição energética em 2020. Conforme se concluirá, a atual dinamicidade das mudanças no mercado energético ainda não permite previsões de monta acerca dos rumos do petróleo e, em menor escala, das energias renováveis, mas é possível delinear algumas possibilidades para a energia em um momento de adaptação à atual crise. Foram utilizados, primordialmente, dados da Agência de Informação Energética dos EUA (EIA) e da Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA). Esta pretende ser uma análise introdutória e não exaustiva acercade um fenômeno que, no momento de sua escrita (junho de 2020), ainda se desenrolava.
Energy Research and Social Science, 2021
In this article, we review the main impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global energy sector ... more In this article, we review the main impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global energy sector and evaluate the implications of related policy responses on prospects for a transition to a climate-friendly energy system. In doing so, we differentiate between different types of countries and different dimensions of energy supply. Firstly, we assess the impacts on leaders and laggards in the transformation of the power sector, in terms of renewable power deployment and the phase-out of coal-fired power generation. Secondly, we consider impacts of the crisis on major exporters of oil and gas resources, focusing on a selection of G20 countries. We find that the impact of the COVID-19 crisis and related policy responses vary across different types of countries but also within large countries, such as the US and China. We conclude that the COVID-19 crisis deepens the gulf between leaders and laggards of the global energy transition and will exacerbate existing imbalances in an uneven energy transition landscape. This threatens the achievement of international climate targets and points to the need for concerted international action aimed at the phase-out of fossil energy resources.
As a bloc, the European Union has had a tradition of mutually evolving environmental and energy l... more As a bloc, the European Union has had a tradition of mutually evolving environmental and energy legislation that has been solidified by the involvement of government, the business sector and civil society. This has led to an overall positive impact of environmental pressures over the course of the EU's energy transition. In Mercosur such process has not taken place due to smaller interest from both the business sector and civil society in environmental protection and energy diversification, as well as to the state’s comparatively larger share in defining such agendas. By presenting the legislation of both blocs in those fields, the author shall highlight the resulting differences in how each of them deals with those areas, particularly when they interconnect. In the end, the author proposes inter-bloc cooperation as a way for Mercosur and the EU to benefit mutually in energy transition as well as strengthen their integration process.
EUCERS Strategy Papers, 2016
For the past years, Brazil has become an important player in the global hydrocarbon sector, parti... more For the past years, Brazil has become an important player in the global hydrocarbon sector, particularly in the fields of oil and, to a lesser extent, natural gas. As time went by, the country’s exploration and production (E&P) sector has developed specific technologies to deal with challenges arising
from deep-sea activities, which account for Brazil’s most significant oil and natural gas production, in addition to the somewhat successful government policies for biofuels. From originally being a country heavily reliant on hydrocarbon imports, Brazil has diminished its oil dependence considerably in the past decade. The country’s national oil company (NOC), Petrobras, has
gained much expertise in light of continuous discoveries and many international oil companies (IOCs) have benefitted from the end of state monopoly on most hydrocarbon activities in the late 1990s. Since then, international corporations have turned to Brazil for a share of the country’s rising production of oil and natural gas in the past decades. If, on the one hand, Brazil’s status concerning E&P operations has changed considerably in absolute numbers, which can be verified by the evolution of the import/export ratio, on the other, the country’s downstream sector remains unable to process the necessary amounts of national crude oil (which is mostly heavy) in a secure and continuous manner for domestic demand, let alone carry exports of refined products in a massive scale. The constant reinvestment Petrobras (which, by and large, is responsible for most of Brazil’s hydrocarbon production) has planned for the country’s diversification in E&P operations is very much bound to both external factors – such as international oil prices and global demand – and internal ones, such as the recent corruption scandals that have affected part of the company’s management. At the same time, private companies and IOCs operating in Brazil are an increasing part of the country’s E&P sector through concession and production sharing agreement (PSA) regimes. The present-day situation of growing production and increased demand shows Brazil as an important player in the world energy realm, but it is still not clear if its status as an “energy superpower” is conclusive. Therefore, by making use of statistical data from Brazilian and international agencies, as well as sources from the legal, political and international relations field, this study seeks to present the current scenario of hydrocarbon exploration in Brazil in order to answer the
following questions: 1) what is hydrocarbon security for Brazil; 2) within the hydrocarbon sector, what is the role of the socio-political environment in Brazil; 3) Is Brazil energetically independent? To answer those questions one shall first introduce a brief history of oil and gas exploration in the country (as well as biofuels, an important element in the Brazilian fuel market) along with numbers covering reserves, exploration, production and foreign trade.
Secondly, the framework of Brazil’s E&P operations will be presented through what the author believes to be the most relevant legal and political events in the history of this sector. After this, the current situation of pre-salt discoveries and exploration will be presented, followed by the country’s public tenders, IOC presence and a note on the corruption scandal Petrobras currently faces. Finally, the question of whether Brazil is energetically independent when it comes to hydrocarbons shall be discussed in order to answer if both its supplydemand scenario and its current production model, coupled with the recent Petrobras scandal, allow it to safely enjoy the benefits of its E&P operations.
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Manuscripts by Flavio Lira
EN: The current dissertation carries out a study on Moscow’s actions concerning the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – NATO – since its inception, in 1949, until Vladimir Putin’s last administration, which ended in 2008. Besides identifying such behavior, this work seeks to present the reasons why Russia can be in favor or against NATO’s actions. The making of this dissertation was based on books and journals specialized in Russia, Eurasia, Geopolitics and International Relations, periodicals, official and nonofficial documents and maps, all of these being followed by a historical analysis.
PT: A Ásia Central tem sido, para a Federação Russa e a República Popular da China, uma zona de cooperação estratégica desde o fim da URSS em 1991. Desde então, desenvolve-se um regime de segurança que congrega, além das duas potências, Cazaquistão, Quirguistão, Tadjiquistão, Turcomenistão e Uzbequistão. Acredita-se, porém, que a efetiva cooperação entre Moscou e Pequim é limitada nesta parte do globo devido ao não desenvolvimento de um regime energético (focado em hidrocarbonetos) que envolva todos os países da região e que seja encabeçado por Rússia e China. Para demonstrar isto, busca-se apresentar as diferentes posições internacionais e as percepções destes dois países no tocante aos hidrocarbonetos e às suas diferentes prioridades geopolíticas. Além disto, sugere-se, ao final do trabalho, que um eficaz desenvolvimento de uma cooperação forte e abrangente entre os dois países deve se basear em um regime securitário-energético regional que inclua a Ásia Central em uma lógica sino-russa de gerenciamento mútuo tanto da segurança quanto do fluxo de hidrocarbonetos.
Papers by Flavio Lira
EN: Since 1991 Central Asia has been the region where Russia and China have built their most assertive cooperation in security. In this article, we present the historical development of such partnership since the end of the Cold War as well as the nature of the documents which uphold the security gravitation of Central Asia around Moscow and Beijing, resulting in a Central Asian security regime led by China and Russia.
from deep-sea activities, which account for Brazil’s most significant oil and natural gas production, in addition to the somewhat successful government policies for biofuels. From originally being a country heavily reliant on hydrocarbon imports, Brazil has diminished its oil dependence considerably in the past decade. The country’s national oil company (NOC), Petrobras, has
gained much expertise in light of continuous discoveries and many international oil companies (IOCs) have benefitted from the end of state monopoly on most hydrocarbon activities in the late 1990s. Since then, international corporations have turned to Brazil for a share of the country’s rising production of oil and natural gas in the past decades. If, on the one hand, Brazil’s status concerning E&P operations has changed considerably in absolute numbers, which can be verified by the evolution of the import/export ratio, on the other, the country’s downstream sector remains unable to process the necessary amounts of national crude oil (which is mostly heavy) in a secure and continuous manner for domestic demand, let alone carry exports of refined products in a massive scale. The constant reinvestment Petrobras (which, by and large, is responsible for most of Brazil’s hydrocarbon production) has planned for the country’s diversification in E&P operations is very much bound to both external factors – such as international oil prices and global demand – and internal ones, such as the recent corruption scandals that have affected part of the company’s management. At the same time, private companies and IOCs operating in Brazil are an increasing part of the country’s E&P sector through concession and production sharing agreement (PSA) regimes. The present-day situation of growing production and increased demand shows Brazil as an important player in the world energy realm, but it is still not clear if its status as an “energy superpower” is conclusive. Therefore, by making use of statistical data from Brazilian and international agencies, as well as sources from the legal, political and international relations field, this study seeks to present the current scenario of hydrocarbon exploration in Brazil in order to answer the
following questions: 1) what is hydrocarbon security for Brazil; 2) within the hydrocarbon sector, what is the role of the socio-political environment in Brazil; 3) Is Brazil energetically independent? To answer those questions one shall first introduce a brief history of oil and gas exploration in the country (as well as biofuels, an important element in the Brazilian fuel market) along with numbers covering reserves, exploration, production and foreign trade.
Secondly, the framework of Brazil’s E&P operations will be presented through what the author believes to be the most relevant legal and political events in the history of this sector. After this, the current situation of pre-salt discoveries and exploration will be presented, followed by the country’s public tenders, IOC presence and a note on the corruption scandal Petrobras currently faces. Finally, the question of whether Brazil is energetically independent when it comes to hydrocarbons shall be discussed in order to answer if both its supplydemand scenario and its current production model, coupled with the recent Petrobras scandal, allow it to safely enjoy the benefits of its E&P operations.
EN: The current dissertation carries out a study on Moscow’s actions concerning the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – NATO – since its inception, in 1949, until Vladimir Putin’s last administration, which ended in 2008. Besides identifying such behavior, this work seeks to present the reasons why Russia can be in favor or against NATO’s actions. The making of this dissertation was based on books and journals specialized in Russia, Eurasia, Geopolitics and International Relations, periodicals, official and nonofficial documents and maps, all of these being followed by a historical analysis.
PT: A Ásia Central tem sido, para a Federação Russa e a República Popular da China, uma zona de cooperação estratégica desde o fim da URSS em 1991. Desde então, desenvolve-se um regime de segurança que congrega, além das duas potências, Cazaquistão, Quirguistão, Tadjiquistão, Turcomenistão e Uzbequistão. Acredita-se, porém, que a efetiva cooperação entre Moscou e Pequim é limitada nesta parte do globo devido ao não desenvolvimento de um regime energético (focado em hidrocarbonetos) que envolva todos os países da região e que seja encabeçado por Rússia e China. Para demonstrar isto, busca-se apresentar as diferentes posições internacionais e as percepções destes dois países no tocante aos hidrocarbonetos e às suas diferentes prioridades geopolíticas. Além disto, sugere-se, ao final do trabalho, que um eficaz desenvolvimento de uma cooperação forte e abrangente entre os dois países deve se basear em um regime securitário-energético regional que inclua a Ásia Central em uma lógica sino-russa de gerenciamento mútuo tanto da segurança quanto do fluxo de hidrocarbonetos.
EN: Since 1991 Central Asia has been the region where Russia and China have built their most assertive cooperation in security. In this article, we present the historical development of such partnership since the end of the Cold War as well as the nature of the documents which uphold the security gravitation of Central Asia around Moscow and Beijing, resulting in a Central Asian security regime led by China and Russia.
from deep-sea activities, which account for Brazil’s most significant oil and natural gas production, in addition to the somewhat successful government policies for biofuels. From originally being a country heavily reliant on hydrocarbon imports, Brazil has diminished its oil dependence considerably in the past decade. The country’s national oil company (NOC), Petrobras, has
gained much expertise in light of continuous discoveries and many international oil companies (IOCs) have benefitted from the end of state monopoly on most hydrocarbon activities in the late 1990s. Since then, international corporations have turned to Brazil for a share of the country’s rising production of oil and natural gas in the past decades. If, on the one hand, Brazil’s status concerning E&P operations has changed considerably in absolute numbers, which can be verified by the evolution of the import/export ratio, on the other, the country’s downstream sector remains unable to process the necessary amounts of national crude oil (which is mostly heavy) in a secure and continuous manner for domestic demand, let alone carry exports of refined products in a massive scale. The constant reinvestment Petrobras (which, by and large, is responsible for most of Brazil’s hydrocarbon production) has planned for the country’s diversification in E&P operations is very much bound to both external factors – such as international oil prices and global demand – and internal ones, such as the recent corruption scandals that have affected part of the company’s management. At the same time, private companies and IOCs operating in Brazil are an increasing part of the country’s E&P sector through concession and production sharing agreement (PSA) regimes. The present-day situation of growing production and increased demand shows Brazil as an important player in the world energy realm, but it is still not clear if its status as an “energy superpower” is conclusive. Therefore, by making use of statistical data from Brazilian and international agencies, as well as sources from the legal, political and international relations field, this study seeks to present the current scenario of hydrocarbon exploration in Brazil in order to answer the
following questions: 1) what is hydrocarbon security for Brazil; 2) within the hydrocarbon sector, what is the role of the socio-political environment in Brazil; 3) Is Brazil energetically independent? To answer those questions one shall first introduce a brief history of oil and gas exploration in the country (as well as biofuels, an important element in the Brazilian fuel market) along with numbers covering reserves, exploration, production and foreign trade.
Secondly, the framework of Brazil’s E&P operations will be presented through what the author believes to be the most relevant legal and political events in the history of this sector. After this, the current situation of pre-salt discoveries and exploration will be presented, followed by the country’s public tenders, IOC presence and a note on the corruption scandal Petrobras currently faces. Finally, the question of whether Brazil is energetically independent when it comes to hydrocarbons shall be discussed in order to answer if both its supplydemand scenario and its current production model, coupled with the recent Petrobras scandal, allow it to safely enjoy the benefits of its E&P operations.