Brian E. Stout

Maastricht University, European Studies, Graduate Student

James Madison University, Philosophy, Undergraduate

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M.A. European Politics and International Relations, 2015

My thesis critiques the Western post-Cold War consensus that the spread of democracy will pacify potentially belligerent states. I produced a reliable probabilistic model of interstate conflict under unipolarity, which I used to predict long-term security outcomes of the Arab Spring and inform U.S. grand strategy in the Greater Middle East.
Supervisors: Dr E. Sapir
Address: Washington, DC

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The Open University

Tel Aviv University

Stanford University

Deloitte

Collin College

Maastricht University

Lee Ray

Kyung Hee University

Brandon Prins

Ahmet KESER

Hasan Kalyoncu University

Scott Gates

Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

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Papers by Brian E. Stout

A Dream Deferred: The Democratic Peace After the Arab Spring

For much of the post-Cold War period, the United States and its Western allies adopted foreign po... more For much of the post-Cold War period, the United States and its Western allies adopted foreign policies that were not averse to status quo disruptions in non-democracies, informed by the belief that democracy is the objectively best political system. However, when it appeared that democratic reform might take root following the so-called Arab Spring, U.S. policies seemed to adhere to the prescriptions of Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder, who cautioned that democratization is more likely to cause international war than result in stable democracies, stable autocracies, and other types of political transitions. As the Arab world remains in crisis, the United States is without a regional grand strategy and clear priorities. Seeking to fill this strategic void with sound policy recommendations, this paper utilizes empirical data to construct two bivariate analyses testing variables linked to the onset of war; the first reconstructs Mansfield and Snyder’s study of state-level factors and the second examines systemic factors. This study finds that highly militarized countries are far more likely to be involved in international war than their peers, a problem which is compounded by the existence of strategic rivalries between states. The Arab world has the highest rate of militarization and rivalry of any region, and its future is likely to be one of protracted warfare, not a democratic peace.

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