Books by Mario Mazzocchi
Papers by Mario Mazzocchi
This paper aims to measure the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direc... more This paper aims to measure the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) is augmented by a flexible stochastic framework which has no need for additional explanatory variables such as a media index. Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the timevarying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The impact of the first BSE crisis on preferences seems to be reabsorbed after a few months. The second wave of the scare at the end of 2000 had a much stronger effect on preferences and the positive shift in chicken demand continued to persist after the onset of the crisis. Empirical results show little relevance of the Dioxin crisis in terms of preference shift, whilst not excluding the more relevant price effect.
Food Economics - Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section C, 2005
Abstract This article explores the economic issues associated with diet choices and nutrition pol... more Abstract This article explores the economic issues associated with diet choices and nutrition policies in Europe. A review of the current and potential policy measures is provided and the issues associated with the development of a common nutritional policy in Europe discussed, with a special focus on the collection of appropriate data for benchmarking. We propose a classification for the wide range of nutrition policy tools and the most recent developments are discussed with reference to policy actions in France, Italy and the United Kingdom.
In this paper a consumer food choice model based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) is exte... more In this paper a consumer food choice model based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) is extended to account for risk perception and trust. The data are from a nationally representative European survey of 2 725 respondents from five countries, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The model relates the intention to purchase chicken in an extended TPB framework, which incorporates risk perceptions, and trust in alternative sources of food safety information. This model was run for two behaviours of interest: the standard likelihood of intention to purchase and the likelihood of intention to purchase conditional on news about a salmonella incident. The model has good predictive power and shows distinct country differences. Only in the case of a food scare do risk perceptions and trust come into play. The findings suggest that the government policy priority should be on building and maintaining trust in food and health authorities, and research institutions, while food chain actors could eliminate many of the adverse consequences of a food scare if they could build public trust. Interestingly there is no relationship between socio-demographic variables and the trust placed by consumers in food safety information.
Food Economics - Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section C, 2007
It is becoming increasingly difficult for the public to attempt to assess risks using traditional... more It is becoming increasingly difficult for the public to attempt to assess risks using traditional methods such as smell, taste or other physical attributes of food. The existence of extrinsic cues such as the country of origin (COO) of food can help to make food purchase decisions easier for consumers. However, the use of extrinsic cues depends heavily on the extent to which consumers trust such signals to be indicative of quality or safety, which in turn depends on the credibility behind that cue. This paper aims to examine consumers association of domestically produced food with increased food safety standards and the association of COO and food safety information with socio-demographics and other aspects of consumer psychology such as attitudes, risk perception and trust. Using an ordered probit model, domestic production is examined as an extrinsic cue for food safety by looking at the relationship with trust in food safety information provided by national food standards agencies (NFSAs) and other socio-demographic characteristics, based on nationally representative data from 2725 face-to-face interviews across five European countries. Results suggest that domestic production of food is an extrinsic cue for food safety and as consumers place increasing importance on food safety they are more interested in food produced in their own country. This, coupled with consumer trust in a strong, and independent national food standards agency, suggests the potential exists for the increased consumption of domestically produced foods.
Applied Economics, 2006
This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and r... more This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS ...
As the avian flu pandemic threatens Europe, consumer awareness of the 'theoretical' possibility o... more As the avian flu pandemic threatens Europe, consumer awareness of the 'theoretical' possibility of contraction of the avian flu virus through consumption of chicken saw a decline in demand at the end of 2005, with peaks between 40% -50% in Southern European countries such as Italy whilst having little impact on demand in Northern countries like the UK. Such food scares, coupled with an increasing awareness of food safety issues by the general public, highlight the importance of evaluating the perceived risks associated with food purchasing and consumption are paramount in order to provide effective policy communication in this area. There is considerable empirical evidence that different consumers respond to food risk communication in different ways. This implies that policymakers and food firms cannot rely on a single public information strategy for emerging food risks. Furthermore, the impact of food safety information varies significantly according to the sources that provide it. Using data are from a nationally representative pan-European survey of 2 725 respondents from five EU countries (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and the United Kingdom), we show that in a situation of increased perceived risk -hence increased levels of involvement -households across the EU are likely to respond in culturally specific ways which suggest a need for country level policy design.
Food Quality and Preference, 2007
This study suggests a statistical strategy for explaining how food purchasing intentions are infl... more This study suggests a statistical strategy for explaining how food purchasing intentions are influenced by different levels of risk perception and trust in food safety information. The modelling process is based on Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behaviour and includes trust and risk perception as additional explanatory factors. Interaction and endogeneity across these determinants is explored through a system of simultaneous equations, while the SPARTA equation is estimated through an ordered probit model. Furthermore, parameters are allowed to vary as a function of socio-demographic variables. The application explores chicken purchasing intentions both in a standard situation and conditional to an hypothetical salmonella scare. Data were collected through a nationally representative UK wide survey of 533 UK respondents in face-to-face, in-home interviews. Empirical findings show that interactions exist among the determinants of planned behaviour and socio-demographic variables improve the model's performance. Attitudes emerge as the key determinant of intention to purchase chicken, while trust in food safety information provided by media reduces the likelihood to purchase.
Innovation-the European Journal of Social Science Research, 2008
Together with a call for more efficient regulations in the EU, there is a growing demand for tran... more Together with a call for more efficient regulations in the EU, there is a growing demand for transparency in the evaluation techniques to assess and predict their effects. This article explores the potential impacts of food safety regulations and discusses the quantitative methods used in the policy evaluation literature. Along with the strengths and limitations of each method, this review highlights other transversal issues relevant to the assessment strategies. Among these are the imbalance between ex ante and ex post evaluation, the ...
Quality Assurance and Safety of Crops & Foods, 2011
Objectives The scope of this contribution is to present an initial version of such a toolbox with... more Objectives The scope of this contribution is to present an initial version of such a toolbox with its application to a case study, which concerns a proposal on setting maximum levels of T-2 and HT-2 toxins in cereals and cereal products. A regulatory proposal of 'strict'maximum limits is compared with two alternative options: the 'do nothing'option and the 'soft'regulatory option. Methods The proposed toolbox involves a preliminary qualitative assessment of the likely impacts of each of the policy options considered, with a coding/scoring procedure, in ...
Annals of Tourism Research, 2001
This paper proposes an approach to economic assessment of the impact on tourist flows of the eart... more This paper proposes an approach to economic assessment of the impact on tourist flows of the earthquake that hit the Umbria region in Central Italy on September 26, 1997. Local arrivals in Assisi fell drastically the month following the main shock, compared to the same month of the previous year. The event study methodology, frequently applied in finance, is employed to evaluate the statistical relevance of the shock over time and space. A further and straightforward application of the event study analysis assesses the substantial amount of loss between October 1997 and June 1998 due to the drop of tourism business.
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2002
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, a... more JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].
Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2004
The paper develops a measure of consumer welfare losses associated with withholding information a... more The paper develops a measure of consumer welfare losses associated with withholding information about a possible link between BSE and vCJD. The Cost of Ignorance (COI) is measured by comparing the utility of the informed choice with the utility of the uninformed choice, under conditions of improved information. Unlike previous work that is largely based on a single equation demand model, the measure is obtained retrieving a cost function from a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System. The estimated perceived loss for Italian consumers due to delayed information ranges from 12 percent to 54 percent of total meat expenditure, depending on the month assumed to embody correct beliefs about the safety level of beef.
Tourism Management, 2010
This study provides a strategy for modelling the effect of the business cycle on tourism demand u... more This study provides a strategy for modelling the effect of the business cycle on tourism demand under the rationale that tourism cycles are heavily influenced by lagged effects of the overall business cycle. Using quarterly data on overnight stays in Italian hotels, both domestic and inbound between 1985 and 2004, we adopt a structural time series approach to evaluate two alternative models, the first with a latent cycle component (LCC) and the second based on specific economic explanatory variables (XCV). The two models are compared in terms of explanatory power, best-fit, residual diagnostics and forecasting ability. The results show similar performances. The policy implication is that the XCV model can be used for calibrating countercyclical interventions in tourism policy.
Applied Economics, 2002
This article applies cointegration techniques to estimate a monthly demand system for meat in Ita... more This article applies cointegration techniques to estimate a monthly demand system for meat in Italy. In contrast to existing studies where Engle and Granger's two step procedure and Triangular Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM) representations are usually exploited, it applies a cointegrated Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) where also prices and expenditure enter endogenously the system and the cointegration rank is not assumed to be known a priori but subject to inference. It highlights some of the advantages of using the ...
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2006
Abstract We develop a stochastic parameter approach to model the time-varying impacts of food sca... more Abstract We develop a stochastic parameter approach to model the time-varying impacts of food scares on consumption, as an alternative to the inclusion of news coverage indices in the demand function. We empirically test the methodology on data from four food scares, the 1982 heptachlor milk contamination in Oahu, Hawaii and the bovine spongiform encephalopathy and two Escherichia coli scares on US meat demand over the period 1993–9. Results show that the inclusion of time-varying parameters in demand models enables ...
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2006
Capturing the pattern of structural change is a relevant task in applied demand analysis, as cons... more Capturing the pattern of structural change is a relevant task in applied demand analysis, as consumer preferences may vary significantly over time. Filtering and smoothing techniques have recently played an increasingly relevant role. A dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System with random walk parameters is estimated in order to detect modifications in consumer habits and preferences, as well as changes in the behavioural response to prices and income. Systemwise estimation, consistent with the underlying constraints from economic theory, is achieved through the EM algorithm. The proposed model is applied to UK aggregate consumption of alcohol and tobacco, using quarterly data from 1963 to 2003. Increased alcohol consumption is explained by a preference shift, addictive behaviour and a lower price elasticity. The dynamic and time-varying specification is consistent with the theoretical requirements imposed at each sample point.
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Books by Mario Mazzocchi
Papers by Mario Mazzocchi