Economics

Changes in consumption processes have been recognised as important steps towards sustainable development. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of research on sustainable consumption and to sketch new approaches in economic modelling ofsustainable consumption. A special focus is given to the relationship between stocks and flows as well as consumer services as being welfare relevant. From that three different steps of modelling are proposed, where the links between material goods demand and consumer services demand as well as the stock-flow relationship can be made explicit.

The present stalemate in climate negotiations has led policy analysts and economists to explore the possible emergence of alternative climate regimes. This paper explores the idea of replacing international cooperation on greenhouse gas emission control with international cooperation on climate-related technological innovation and diffusion. This idea-recently proposed among others by Barrett (2001) and Benedick (2001)-is based on the insight that incentives to free-ride are much smaller in the case of technological cooperation than in the case of cooperation on emission control. This paper provides a first applied game theory analysis of a technology-based climate protocol by assessing: (i) the self-enforcingness (namely, the absence of incentives to free ride) of the coalition that would form when countries negotiate on climate-related technological cooperation; (ii) the environmental effectiveness of a technology-based climate protocol. The analysis is carried out by using a model in which endogenous and induced technical change are explicitly modelled and in which international technological spillovers are also quantified. The results of our analysis partly support Barrett's and Benedick's conjecture. On the one hand, a self-enforcing agreement is more likely to emerge when countries cooperate on environmental technological innovation and diffusion than when they cooperate on emission abatement. However, technological cooperation-without any commitment to emission control-may not lead to a sufficient abatement of greenhouse gas concentrations.

Do Not Cite or Quote 7 Chapter 11 Revised on 20/07/2006 11:31 PM and so put downward pressure on the prices. Depending on fossil-fuel producer's response, oil, gas or coal prices may fall, leading to loss of revenues by the producers, and lower costs of imports for the consumers. Nearly all modelling studies that have been reviewed show more pronounced adverse effects on oil-producing countries than on most of the Annex I countries who are taking the abatement measures. Co-benefits of Mitigation Action While the studies use different methodological approaches, there is general consensus for all analyzed world regions that near-term health and other benefits from GHG reductions can be substantial, both in industrialized and developing countries. However, the benefits are highly dependent on the technologies and sectors chosen. In developing countries, much of the health benefit could occur by improving the efficiency of or switching away from traditional use of coal and biomass. Such near-term secondary benefits of GHG control provide the opportunity for a true no-regrets GHG reduction policy in which substantial advantages accrue even if the impact of human induced climate change itself turned out to be less than current projections shows Climate mitigation policies, if developed independently from air pollution policies, will either constrain or reinforce air pollution policies, and vice versa. The efficiency of a framework depends on the choice and design of the policy instruments, in particular on how well these are integrated. From an economic perspective, policies that may not be regarded as cost-effective from a climate change or an air pollution perspective alone may be found to be cost-effective if both aspects are considered. Thus, piecemeal regulatory treatment of individual pollutants rather than a comprehensive approach could lead to stranded investments in equipment. Adaptation and mitigation from a sectoral perspective The implications of some mitigation actions for adaptation dominate the scene, particularly renewable energy from land-based biomass, There is a growing awareness of the unique contribution that synergies between mitigation and adaptation could provide for the rural poor, particularly in least developed countries: many actions focusing on sustainable natural resource management policies could potentially provide both significant adaptation benefits while also working to provide mitigation benefits, mostly in the form of sequestration activities, that may not easily be measurable or verified. 63 Chapter 11 Revised on 20/07/2006 11:31 PM gross world output, and the carbon prices shown against to output costs. The results are discussed in terms of pathways towards the mid-ranges of C and B stabilization categories. Category C: The 'optimal' trajectory in most models towards stabilization at 4.5W/m 2 , typically c.550ppmCO 2-only requires abatement at less than 20% by 2030 in most of the models, with correspondingly low carbon prices and costs of less than 0.5% global GDP. Most models in the EMF-21 multigas studies for 4.5W/m 2 suggest a carbon price by 2030 in the range $10-20/tCO 2 (about US$40-75/tC). The average carbon price in the nearest equivalent (550ppmCO 2-only) runs of models with induced technological change in EMF-19 (average $12/tCO 2) and the IMCP studies ($7/tCO 2) tend to be slightly lower, particularly the latter. Category B: The mean carbon price by 2030 across IMCP results for 450ppm CO 2-only as shown is $27/tCO 2 (about US$100/tC); the four models in EMF-21 that report for broadly similar levels all give much higher prices. This may reflect the impact of endogenous technological change, which is greater under more stringent constraints. The carbon prices across all the studies in this category fall within the range $20-60/tCO 2 with two higher costs estimates at 120 and 190 US$/tCO 2. Note also that carbon prices rising, sharply for some of the higher numbers, from lower levels in 2020. Thus, most evidence indicates that the $20-50/tCO 2 cost category of the sector studies is the carbon price level which, if reached globally by 2020-2030, delivers trajectories compatible with subsequent stabilization at mid category B levels. The corresponding CO 2 reduction by 2030 is 15-45% relative to baseline (which itself is uncertain and affected by other measures).

A linked input output/econometric model of the Austrian economy with an energy block is used in this study to assess sectoral effects of CO2 reduction. The energy block and the other commodities are linked by a partitioned i-o-model. The energy block is made up by aggregate energy demand equations by activities and sub demand systems of the translog type, where total energy input is split up into different fuel types. The conversion of energy is modelled by an i-o-model of the energy sector. The input output/econometric model of the Austrian economy is a simple closed i-o model with econometric equations for final demand components, imports by goods and employment by activities. Measures for CO2 reduction, their impact on energy demand and their costs in terms of additional capital goods are taken from detailed expert studies and introduced in the model.

The ability to stimulate technological change might turn out to be one of the hidden treasures in the Kyoto Protocol. Based on the proposed Austrian Kyoto Policy Package we focus on the technological innovations induced by this program and analyze them in a macroeconomic framework. The results indicate that a well designed emissions reduction policy will not only achieve even ambitious reduction targets but also stimulate economic activity and yield net benefits. Three key technologies are investigated: improvement of thermal structures of buildings, cogeneration technologies and shift to biomass technologies. The relevant policy actions comprise elimination of market barriers, dissemination of information about available technology options and shifts in the tax base. Building blocks of the comprehensive modeling approach are the explicit choice of technologies for consumption, production, and abatement decisions,-the interaction of flows and stocks in these decisions of households and producers,-a measure of welfare that besides flows takes also into account stocks that are relevant for consumers' benefits.

This paper analyses the effects of energy taxation on the Austrian economy. Simulations are carried out with a linked input-output macromodel. The macroeconomic effects of an energy tax on economic growth, employment, the rate of inflation (change in the consumer price index), the budget deficit and the current account will be explained, as well as the sectoral impact on different industries.

Based on the verified emissions for the 2005 and 2006 trading years, the actual emissions and allowances for each installation covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) were compared. Based on data available for 24 Member States as of May 2007, this article uses a thorough data analysis for about 9,900 installations to investigate evidence on three issues: first, the stringency of the total allocation cap and allocation differences both among the Member States and a selection of emissionintensive sectors; second, the distribution of the size of installations; and third, the spread of allocation discrepancies and possible allocation biases regarding the size of installations. There is a surprisingly high spread of allocation discrepancies, which provide evidence for treating small installations differently from large ones: the inequality of distribution of the size of installations, between allocated and verified allowances, variations in the spread of the allocation discrepancies both by country and by sector reflecting the implementation of National Allocation Plans, the size of an installation and its allocation discrepancy.

Based on the verified emissions for the 2005 and 2006 trading years, the actual emissions and allowances for each installation covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) were compared. Based on data available for 24 Member States as of May 2007, this article uses a thorough data analysis for about 9,900 installations to investigate evidence on three issues: first, the stringency of the total allocation cap and allocation differences both among the Member States and a selection of emissionintensive sectors; second, the distribution of the size of installations; and third, the spread of allocation discrepancies and possible allocation biases regarding the size of installations. There is a surprisingly high spread of allocation discrepancies, which provide evidence for treating small installations differently from large ones: the inequality of distribution of the size of installations, between allocated and verified allowances, variations in the spread of the allocation discrepancies both by country and by sector reflecting the implementation of National Allocation Plans, the size of an installation and its allocation discrepancy.

The present stalemate in climate negotiations has led policy analysts and economists to explore the possible emergence of alternative climate regimes. This paper explores the idea of replacing international cooperation on greenhouse gas emission control with international cooperation on climate-related technological innovation and diffusion. This idea-recently proposed among others by Barrett (2001) and Benedick (2001)-is based on the insight that incentives to free-ride are much smaller in the case of technological cooperation than in the case of cooperation on emission control. This paper provides a first applied game theory analysis of a technology-based climate protocol by assessing: (i) the self-enforcingness (namely, the absence of incentives to free ride) of the coalition that would form when countries negotiate on climate-related technological cooperation; (ii) the environmental effectiveness of a technology-based climate protocol. The analysis is carried out by using a model in which endogenous and induced technical change are explicitly modelled and in which international technological spillovers are also quantified. The results of our analysis partly support Barrett's and Benedick's conjecture. On the one hand, a self-enforcing agreement is more likely to emerge when countries cooperate on environmental technological innovation and diffusion than when they cooperate on emission abatement. However, technological cooperation-without any commitment to emission control-may not lead to a sufficient abatement of greenhouse gas concentrations.

A linked input output/econometric model of the Austrian economy with an energy block is used in this study to assess sectoral effects of CO2 reduction. The energy block and the other commodities are linked by a partitioned i-o-model. The energy block is made up by aggregate energy demand equations by activities and sub demand systems of the translog type, where total energy input is split up into different fuel types. The conversion of energy is modelled by an i-o-model of the energy sector. The input output/econometric model of the Austrian economy is a simple closed i-o model with econometric equations for final demand components, imports by goods and employment by activities. Measures for CO2 reduction, their impact on energy demand and their costs in terms of additional capital goods are taken from detailed expert studies and introduced in the model.

Die Neue Klassische Makro6konomik provozierte nicht nur die 6konomische Theorie, sondern brachte auch eine neue Herausforderung f~ir die 6konometrische Methodologie im Zusammenhang mit der Parametersch~itzung unter der Hypothese der rationalen Erwartungsbildung und unter dem Einflug von Reaktionen auf Magnahmen der Wirtschaftspolitik, vor allem aber wurde eine neue Diskussion ~iber Kausalit~t, Endogenit~t, Exogenit~t und die Grenzen der traditionellen 6konometrischen Strukturmodelle initiiert. Anhand von Wiener-Granger-Kausalit~tstests wird die Grenze der Aussagef~higkeit dieser Testverfahren zur Identifikation von Abh~ingigkeiten zwischen 5konomischen Variablen diskutiert. Mittels des datenanalytischen Verfahrens der Hauptkomponentenanalyse wird die M6glichkeit einer alternativen Parametrisierung einer 6konomischen Datenbasis demonstriert, aus der ein stochastisches Mag fLir die Endogenit~t bzw. Exogenit~it einer Variablen bez~iglich eines Datensatzes entwickelt wird.

This paper analyses the effects of energy taxation on the Austrian economy. Simulations are carded out with a linked input-output macromodel. The macroeconomic effects of an energy tax on economic growth, employment, the rate of inflation (change in the consumer price index), the budget deficit and the current account will be explained, as well as the sectoral impact on different industries.

We start from the assertion that a useful monetary policy design should be founded on more realistic assumptions about what policymakers can know at the time when policy decisions have to be made. Since the Taylor rule – if used as an operational device - implies a forward looking behaviour, we analyze the reliability of the input information. We investigate the forecasting performance of OECD projections for GDP growth rates and inflation. We diagnose a much better forecasting record for inflation rates compared to GDP growth rates, which for most countries are almost uninformative at the time a Taylor rule should sensibly be applied. Using this data set, we find significant differences between Taylor rules estimated over revised data compared to real-time data. There is evidence that monetary policy seems to react more actively in real time than rules estimated over revised data suggest. Given the evidence of systematic errors in OECD forecasts, in a next step we attempt to correc...

Im Rahmen der Klimarahmenkonvention der UNO treffen die Vertragsstaaten zu ihren Verhandlungen (Conference of Parties, COP 16) von 29. November bis 10. Dezember 2010 in Cancun, Mexiko zusam-men. Die naturwissenschaftlichen Grundlagen für die Szenarien des Klimawandels haben sich über die letzten Jahre weiter erhärtet und weisen auf die Notwendigkeit einer umfassenden Reduktion der Treibhausgasemissionen hin – einer Reduktion um ein Vielfaches der im Kyoto-Vertrag vereinbarten Ziele und unter Einbeziehung von wesentlich mehr als der damaligen Vertragsstaaten. Die Vorgänger-Vertragsstaaten-Konferenz in Kopenhagen 2009 markierte eine fundamentale Änderung in der inter-nationalen Klimapolitik-Architektur, statt völkerrechtlich verbindlichen gemeinsamen Zielen dürfte es nun den einzelnen Staaten überlassen bleiben welche Handlungen sie setzen. Einzelstaatliche Klimapolitik läuft ohne gemeinsame Ziele aber Gefahr mit wesentlichen Wettbewerbseffekten im internatio-nalen Handel verbunden zu...

The Austrian Assessment Report 2014 (AAR14) is based on the IPCC structure and process; it consists of three volumes that present the existing knowledge on climate change in Austria, and on the needs and possibilities for mitigation and adaptation. The report aims to present the scientific knowledge pertaining to Austria in a coherent and complete manner to submit this in the form of policy-relevant information to the Austrian Federal Government and political decision-making bodies at all levels, and thereby providing a decision-making basis for the private sector and a knowledge base for academic institutions. Similar to the IPCC assessment reports, the AAR14 is based on the principle of being policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive. In a joint, three-year effort approximately 240 Austrian scientists have developed this first progress report on climate change in Austria, and thus summarized the current state of knowledge on the characteristics of climate change in Austria, its...