Papers by Vasif Huseynov
The development of new technologies and aggression models has brought new dynamics to interstate ... more The development of new technologies and aggression models has brought new dynamics to interstate conflicts by dramatically augmenting the role and potential of non-military strategies. International broadcasting and social media, cyberspace, and sophisticated intelligence services, among others, effectively serve aggressive powers to pursue their goals without direct military intervention. The chapter discusses this new generation of warfare, termed “hybrid threats” or “hybrid warfare,” through the perspective of Azerbaijan's encounter with the hybrid threats posed by some of its neighboring countries. The chapter particularly examines the use of hybrid warfare elements by Armenia and Iran and Azerbaijan's defense strategy against these threats. A long list of sources, news media articles, reports, official documents, as well interviews with the officials that are available on the internet are used in this analysis.
Caucasus Strategic Perspectives, 2020
This article looks into the causes and consequences of the variance in the foreign policy orienta... more This article looks into the causes and consequences of the variance in the foreign policy orientation of the three countries in the South Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The article discusses, as manifestations of their foreign policy orientations, Armenia’s alignment with the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Georgia’s aspiration to join the Euro-Atlantic military and political structures, and Azerbaijan’s commitment to a balanced approach through reinforcing its role within the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). Tracking the evolution of the status quo to the beginning of the post-Soviet independence of the three states, the article argues that regional ethno-territorial conflicts, combined with the intervention of external great powers in this process, has served as the causal variable behind the genesis of the region’s geopolitical diversification. This situation, in turn, has aggravated the disputes between the regional states, expanded the gap between them, and significantly complicated the resolution process. Describing this process as the vicious circle of the region, the article poses the questions, what are the main characteristics of this vicious circle? And how does it affect regional peace and security? The analysis concludes that the territorial conflicts of the South Caucasus erupted from relatively similar conditions in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union in early 1990s, but their trajectories diverged markedly owing to a wide range of factors but, in particular, the foreign policy strategies of the respective states.
The rise of right-wing populism in Georgia and Armenia has already complicated international situ... more The rise of right-wing populism in Georgia and Armenia has already complicated international situation in the South Caucasus and rung again the alarm bells for a military escalation.
Caucasus International, 2018
This article examines the use of soft power in China’s foreign policy concerning the South Caucas... more This article examines the use of soft power in China’s foreign policy concerning the South Caucasian countries (Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia) that are involved, though to varying degrees, in Beijing’s giant economic project called Belt and Road. It looks into China’s soft power strategy in general and its role in the South Caucasus in particular, occasionally compares this strategy with those of the Western powers and Russia in the region, and defines the peculiarities of Chinese soft power in the countries of the region. Extensively analysing news media articles, official statements by local and Chinese leaders, academic materials, and other sources, the article suggests answers to the research question: How does China use soft power as an instrument in its foreign policy regarding the three South Caucasian countries?
This paper presents a realist reflection on the crisis in Ukraine from the perspective of the Wes... more This paper presents a realist reflection on the crisis in Ukraine from the perspective of the Western powers, in particular, that of the United States. Its theoretical argumentation is built on the basis of thoughts of contemporary realist minded scholars and geopoliticians, but, concomitantly, criticizes the contradictory nuances in their approaches. The paper analyses the consequences of the Ukraine crisis as an accomplishment from the Western point of view and diverges from other realist scholars who consider it as a mistake of the West. It argues that the United States has successfully completed its geopolitical mission concerning Ukraine by breaking it away from Moscow's sphere of influence, therefore, now it can seek to de-escalate tensions with Russia over Ukraine and redirect its focus on other threats, such as the rise of China.
This article analyses the rationale behind Russia's ambitions to dominate over the former Soviet ... more This article analyses the rationale behind Russia's ambitions to dominate over the former Soviet countries in its neighbourhood, the challenges it has been facing in its quest to materialize those ambitions, and some major outcomes of its struggle against these challenges. It also explores the existing status quo in the region and its prospective implications for the international security. It finds out that Russia is losing ground in the competition with both the West (i.e. EU and United States) and China over its neighbourhood. The article, however, concludes that the decline of Russia's influence in this region – the contraction of its sphere of influence – is not likely to bring about an all-out war between Russia and its geopolitical rivals for the foreseeable future.
This paper is based on the fact that a number of factors, but particularly the restricting utilit... more This paper is based on the fact that a number of factors, but particularly the restricting utility of military force between great powers, increase the significance of soft power as a tool both for legitimization and expansion in international relations in general, and in the West – Russia confrontation over the " common (or shared) neighbourhood " in particular. It explores how this fact affects the policies of the Western powers and Russia within the frame of the confrontation they are in. The paper narrows down its analytical focus on the efforts of the Kremlin to affect the public opinion in its neighbourhood and to counter Western soft power. It is argued that the Ukraine crisis has affected Russia's perception of soft power, reconstructed its counter-revolutionary agenda, and increased the profile of propaganda in its foreign policy. The paper concludes that the soft power competition between Russia and West and the policies of the two powers to win over the hearts and minds of people in the shared neighbourhood redefine the character of geopolitical games in the Former Soviet Union.
This article discusses Georgia's foreign policy in the aftermath of the disintegration of the USS... more This article discusses Georgia's foreign policy in the aftermath of the disintegration of the USSR in the early 1990s in regard to its relations with Russia. This perspective reveals the entrenched traditions of strategic idealism in the country's political culture, and argues that this approach has shaped Georgia's foreign policy strategies. On this basis, regardless of the geographic and geopolitical challenges, since the early years of independence, Georgia has remained committed to the pursuit of EU and NATO membership. This Western-oriented geopolitical predisposition caused the gradual deterioration of its ties with Russia, and eventually led to the current deadlock in bilateral relations. Through its analysis of the foreign policy of the Georgian Dream coalition, the article concludes that current relations between Russia and Georgia vacillate between rapprochement and confrontation, jeopardizing the security of the region as a whole.
Articles by Vasif Huseynov
A risky combination of offiicial Armenian rhetoric and the exhaustion of Azerbaijani patience rai... more A risky combination of offiicial Armenian rhetoric and the exhaustion of Azerbaijani patience raises concern that another full-scale war could break out in the South Caucasus (October 8, 2019).
China’s expanding economic ties with the two sides of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict give Beijing ... more China’s expanding economic ties with the two sides of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict give Beijing important leverage to push for quick resolution.
Articles, Research Papers, Op-eds by Vasif Huseynov
Modern Diplomacy, 2019
The global protest movement calling for the permanent removal of memorials that reinforce dangero... more The global protest movement calling for the permanent removal of memorials that reinforce dangerous or discriminatory ideologies, such as Nazism or racism, express important messages that are, unfortunately, frequently ignored or disregarded. The advocates of the movement rightly argue that memorials are more than historical artifacts: they glorify the past, commemorate a questionable historical figure or policy, send misguided messages about the present and are intended to shape ideas and outlooks. In a nutshell, these types of monuments say how the present and future should look like.
The removal of these memorials from Armenia, following the example of the removal of statutes to colonialist leaders around the world and Confederate figures in the United States, is necessary to give due respect to thousands of victims. It would also be a good starting point for reconciliation between Armenia and its neighbors, making an important contribution to the settlement of the violent conflicts in the region.
Articles and Research Papers by Vasif Huseynov
International Institute for Peace, Vienna , 2020
July 2020 marked one of the most intense escalations in the more than thirty-year-old conflict be... more July 2020 marked one of the most intense escalations in the more than thirty-year-old conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The clashes, which occurred on the state border between the two sides in the direction of the Tovuz region of Azerbaijan, geographically far from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, manifested a new dangerous development. The evident failure of the internationally mediated negotiations and the destructive dynamics in the region continue to preclude a breakthrough in the foreseeable future and keep peace as an inaccessible dream of the region’s people.
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Papers by Vasif Huseynov
Articles by Vasif Huseynov
Articles, Research Papers, Op-eds by Vasif Huseynov
The removal of these memorials from Armenia, following the example of the removal of statutes to colonialist leaders around the world and Confederate figures in the United States, is necessary to give due respect to thousands of victims. It would also be a good starting point for reconciliation between Armenia and its neighbors, making an important contribution to the settlement of the violent conflicts in the region.
Articles and Research Papers by Vasif Huseynov
The removal of these memorials from Armenia, following the example of the removal of statutes to colonialist leaders around the world and Confederate figures in the United States, is necessary to give due respect to thousands of victims. It would also be a good starting point for reconciliation between Armenia and its neighbors, making an important contribution to the settlement of the violent conflicts in the region.