Environmental Engineering, Sao Jose dos Campos

The emphasis in this research is to evaluate the spatial distribution of the precipitation using a geostatistics approach. Seasonal time scales records considering DJF, MAM, JJA e SON periods performed the analysis. Procedures to evaluate the variogram selection and to produce kriging maps were performed in a GIS environment (ArcGIS ®). The results showed that kriging method was very suitable to detect both large changes in the whole area as those local small and subtle changes. Kriging demonstrated be a powerful statistical interpolation method that might be very useful in regions with great complexity in climatology and geomorphology.

Purpose – This paper seeks to address the issue of persistent and widespread drought conditions during 2000 and 2001, which were the apparent cause of the decline of water levels in the reservoirs of Brazilian hydroelectric power plants. Design/methodology/approach – This issue is addressed here through a case study of the hydroclimatology of the Paraíba river basin, in Southeast Brazil, home to four large multipurpose operational reservoirs. Findings – The data analysis shows that neither changes in the frequency nor magnitude of extreme hydrological events (droughts and floods) nor in annual rainfall amounts can be detected from the existing climate record. The explanation is consistent with the fact that the terrestrial water and energy cycles are tightly, and non-linearly, coupled through evapotranspiration. Research limitations/implications – Therefore small change in the seasonality of rainfall can have a significant impact on the basin's overall hydrologic regime, and thus on the availability of water resources. Originality/value – Often, adaptation and resilience to climate variability are discussed in the context of catastrophic events such as floods and droughts. This study suggests that a different type of impacts, those associated with subtle, yet persistent changes of seasonality in the terrestrial water cycle, cannot be ignored in studies of long-term sustainability of water resources. Introduction Hydropower has long been considered a sustainable and renewable energy source (Braga, 2001). In Brazil, for example, almost 90 per cent of all electricity is produced in hydropower plants. Although standard planning and design of dams and reservoirs take into account hydroclimatic variability in the historical record, the underlying climate regime is assumed stationary. Recently, this premise has been increasingly under scrutiny with regard to uncertainty in the long-term assessment of water resources (Shiklomanov, 1999). We examine this issue by focusing on the recent hydroelectric energy crisis in Brazil. In 2001, significant lowering of water levels in the reservoirs of many Brazilian hydroelectric power plants was attributed to a severe drought. The federal government was forced to announce a national rationing plan to avoid blackouts from June till the

This paper presents a methodological approach to characterize the infiltrations conditions of a portion of Paraiba do Sul river basin (7,600 km 2 ) using Geographic Information Systems tools. To each landscape feature (rock, structure, relief, soil, and land-use) and to the spatial distribution of precipitation, an infiltration potential scale factor that ranges from higher influence (5) to lower influence (1) was applied considering its geographical position. The results showed that higher infiltration capacity areas are located in Serra da Bocaina associated to Serra do Mar relief in the Northeast region and Southeast region as well associated to gentle hills and sandstones along the Paraíba do Sul river. The creation of an Infiltration Map may contribute to the development of long-term territorial plans and water SOARES, P. V.; PEREIRA, S. Y.; SIMÕES, S. J. C.; BERNARDES, G. P.; BARBOSA, S. A. Mapa de infiltração do alto e médio Vale do Paraíba do Sul com base em elementos do meio físico e na precipitação. resource management plans in order to support future implementation of non-structural and structural measures at both regional and local scales.

This study intends to evaluate the spatial analysis of the rice irrigation areas in the Medium Paraíba do Sul Valley for the period comprised between 1988 and 2003. Rice irrigation is a historical activity in Paraiba Valley being responsible for 51% of the water supply in this region. Supervised Classification was made for the multitemporal interpretation of remote sensing data (Landsat TM) using the software SPRING, ver 3.0. The analysis encompassed four regions (Guaratinguetá, Tremembé, Pindamonhagaba e Lorena-Canas), which represent 82% of the total irrigated area in the Paraiba Valley. The results show a significant decrease in irrigation area in Lorena-Canas (32.4%) and Pindamonhangaba (22.7%) and a smaller one in Tremebé region (6.4%). In contrast, Guaratinguetá region has presented an increase in irrigation area (14.2%). For the four regions analyzed, a reduction of 11.8% in irrigated area has been observed. Unlike other regions of São Paulo State, the irrigation activity in the Paraíba Valley is decreasing notably due to rapid urbanization and PAES JUNIOR, N. S.; SIMÕES, S. J. C. Evolução espacial de áreas irrigadas com base em sensoriamento remoto o médio Vale do Paraíba do Sul, Sudeste do Brasil. 73 mineral extraction near, or on alluvial plan, contributing to the reduction of irrigated rice cultivation and elimination of wetlands ecosystems.

Several studies suggest that, on a large scale, relief conditions influence the Atlantic Forest cover. The aim of this work was to explore these relationships on a local scale, in Caucaia do Alto, on the Ibiúna Plateau. Within an area of about 78 km 2 , the distribution of forest cover, divided into two successional stages, was associated with relief attribute data (slope, slope orientation and altitude). The mapping of the vegetation was based on the interpretation of stere-oscopic pairs of aerial photographs, from April 2000, on a scale of 1:10,000, while the relief attributes were obtained by geoprocessing from digitalized topographic maps on a scale of 1:10,000. Statistical analyses, based on qui-square tests, revealed that there was a more extensive forest cover, irrespective of the successional stage, in steeper areas (>10 degrees) located at higher altitudes (>923 m), but no influence of the slope orientation. There was no sign of direct influence of relief on the forest cover through environmental gradients that might have contributed to the forest regeneration. Likewise, there was no evidence that these results could have been influenced by the distance from roads or urban areas or with respect to permanent preservation areas. Relief seems to influence the forest cover indirectly, since agricultural land use is preferably made in flatter and lower areas. These results suggest a general distribution pattern of the forest remnants, independent of the scale of study, on which relief indirectly has a strong influence, since it determines human occupation. Influência do relevo na distribuição espacial da Mata Atlântica no Planalto de Ibiúna, SP Resumo Vários estudos sugerem que as condições do relevo influenciam, em larga escala, a cobertura da Mata Atlântica. Este trabalho teve por objetivo explorar estas relações em escala local, na região do Planalto de Ibiúna, denominada de Caucaia do Alto. Numa área de cerca de 78 km 2 , procurou-se associar a cobertura florestal, dividida em dois estádios sucessionais, com atributos do relevo (declividade, orientação de vertente e altitude). O mapeamento da vegetação foi feito a partir da interpretação de pares estereoscópicos de fotografias aéreas de abril de 2000, na escala 1:10.000, enquanto os atributos do relevo foram gerados por geoprocessamento a partir de cartas topográficas digitalizadas, em escala 1:10.000. As análises estatísticas, baseadas em testes de qui-quadrado, revelam que há maior cobertura florestal, independentemente do estádio sucessional, em áreas mais íngremes (>10 graus) e situadas em altitudes mais elevadas (>923 m), porém não há influência da orientação de vertente. Não há indícios de influência direta do relevo sobre a cobertura florestal, através de gradientes ambientais que poderiam agir na regeneração florestal. Também não foram obtidas evidências de que estes resultados possam ser influenciados pelo distanciamento a estradas ou centros urba-nos, ou ainda pelo respeito às áreas de preservação permanente. O relevo parece determinar o recobrimento florestal, principalmente por condicionar o uso agrícola dos solos, que se dá preferencialmente em áreas mais planas e baixas. Estes resultados sugerem um padrão geral de influência do relevo sobre a distribuição dos remanescentes florestais, independentemente da escala de estudo, onde o relevo atua indiretamente ao condicionar a ocupação humana. Palavras-chave: relevo, cobertura florestal, Floresta Atlântica, uso da terra.

RESUMO – (Influência do relevo na riqueza de espécies arbóreas em fragmentos de floresta secundária de Mata Atlântica, SE, Brasil). O objetivo deste trabalho foi explorar a relação entre a riqueza de espécies arbóreas com as características morfológicas do relevo no Planalto de Ibiúna (SE, Brasil). Foram amostrados 61 blocos de 0,30 ha, sistematicamente estabelecidos em 20 fragmentos de floresta secundária (2-274 ha) e em três áreas de uma floresta secundária contínua, a Reserva do Morro Grande (9.400 ha). Em cada bloco, 100 árvores com diâmetro à altura do peito > 5 cm foram amostradas pelo método do quadrante centrado, e as riquezas total e por grupo de dispersão e sucessão foram obtidas. O relevo foi caracterizado pela média e variância da declividade, altitude, orientação e posição na vertente. Não houve relação significativa entre a heterogeneidade do relevo e a riqueza de espécies arbóreas. Os parâmetros do relevo afetaram pouco a riqueza da vegetação, mas a altitude foi particularmente importante, especialmente na floresta contínua. Apesar da pouca extensão na variação de altitude (150 m), a riqueza aumentou com este fator. As áreas mais altas também foram aquelas com as maiores coberturas florestais e os mais baixos graus de perturbação, o que deve contribuir para a maior riqueza dessas áreas. Nossos resultados indicam uma influência indireta do relevo, pelo fato das áreas mais altas serem também as menos desmatadas, e não uma influência direta de fatores abióticos relacionados ao gradiente de altitude. Palavras-chave: relevo, riqueza e composição de espécies arbóreas, Mata Atlântica, uso da terra ABSTRACT – (Relief influence on tree species richness in secondary forest fragments of Atlantic Forest, SE, Brazil). The aim of this work was to explore the relationship between tree species richness and morphological characteristics of relief at the Ibiúna Plateau (SE Brazil). We sampled 61 plots of 0.30 ha, systematically established in 20 fragments of secondary forest (2-274 ha) and in three areas within a continuous secondary forest site, Morro Grande Reserve (9,400 ha). At each plot, 100 trees with diameter at breast height > 5 cm were sampled by the point centered quarter method, and total richness and richness per dispersal and succession class were obtained. The relief was characterized by the mean and variance of slope, elevation, aspect and slope location. There was no significant relationship between relief heterogeneity and tree species richness. Relief parameters generally did not affect tree richness, but elevation was particularly important especially in the continuous forest. Despite the limited range of altitudinal variation (150 m), species richness increases with elevation. The highest areas were also those with the largest forest cover and the lowest disturbance degree, which should contribute to the greater richness of those sites. Our results suggest an indirect influence of relief, due to the fact that deforestation is less intense in higher regions, rather than a direct influence of abiotic factors related to the altitudinal gradient.