Palabras clave: desempleo, teoría de la reacción en cadena, stock de capital. 1. INTRODUCCIÓN La ... more Palabras clave: desempleo, teoría de la reacción en cadena, stock de capital. 1. INTRODUCCIÓN La dinámica del mercado de trabajo refleja la eficacia de una economía como generadora de empleo y de oportunidades. En este sentido, los países nórdicos-Dinamarca, Finlandia, Islandia, Noruega y Suecia-reflejan claramente esta eficacia. Estos países se caracterizan por sus sistemas de estado de bienestar bien desarrollados, por sus bajos niveles de desigualdad de ingresos y por su buen desempeño macroeconómico en comparación con las grandes economías del mundo. Además, sus mercados de trabajo son muy dinámicos, lo que se combina con una elevada protección, altas tasas de actividad y bajos niveles de desempleo. En particular, nuestro análisis se centra en Islandia y Noruega porque a pesar de pertenecer a este grupo de países, éstos poseen ciertas características específicas que los hacen diferentes a Dinamarca, Finlandia y Suecia. Por ejemplo, la experiencia de Islandia y Noruega es mucho m...
Palabras clave: desempleo, teoría de la reacción en cadena, stock de capital. 1. INTRODUCCIÓN Dur... more Palabras clave: desempleo, teoría de la reacción en cadena, stock de capital. 1. INTRODUCCIÓN Durante las últimas décadas, muchos han sido los trabajos que han estudiado el mercado de trabajo desde una óptica macroeconómica. Uno de los enfoques más recientes, y el que utilizamos en nuestro análisis, es el de la teoría de la reacción en cadena (TRC), inicialmente desarrollado por Karanassou y Snower (1996). Este enfoque postula que los movimientos de la tasa de desempleo surgen de la interacción entre los shocks del mercado de trabajo y los procesos de ajustes rezagados. En este trabajo centramos la atención en el mercado de trabajo de dos países nórdicos: Islandia y Noruega con un triple objetivo. Primero, estimamos una oferta de trabajo para cada país para establecer cuáles son las variables que guían el
Fil: Farreras Gonzalez, Veronica Ines. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas... more Fil: Farreras Gonzalez, Veronica Ines. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Cientifico Tecnologico Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivologia, Glaciologia y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Economicas; Argentina
En este trabajo examinamos el comportamiento del mercado de trabajo de Islandia y Noruega en las ... more En este trabajo examinamos el comportamiento del mercado de trabajo de Islandia y Noruega en las últimas décadas y en particular analizamos el proceso de formación salarial desde la óptica de la teoría de la reacción en cadena (TRC). Nuestras ecuaciones de salarios estimadas indican que en ambos países los salarios vienen determinados por los mismos factores: a) un componente que muestra la influencia que ejercen las decisiones del pasado en las decisiones presentes, b) la productividad del empleo, c) los subsidios de desempleo y d) la tasa de desempleo. Así, nuestros resultados refuerzan la hipótesis de la TRC sobre la importancia de utilizar conjuntamente variables estacionarias (instituciones del mercado de trabajo) y variables no estacionarias (variables con tendencia) para analizar el comportamiento del mercado de trabajo o de alguno de sus componentes, como en este caso el proceso de formación salarial.
PurposeThis paper aims to provide an account of the unemployment performance of two Nordic countr... more PurposeThis paper aims to provide an account of the unemployment performance of two Nordic countries during their recent labour market booms and slumps.Design/methodology/approachBased on the empirical models of Karanassou et al., we conduct dynamic simulation exercises and explore the determinants of unemployment.FindingsThe analysis yields two main findings. First, the capital stock was the most important determinant of the unemployment trajectory in both countries. This result appears in all periods considered: in the slump of the early 1990s and the boom of the late 1990s, as well as in the stabilisation period of the early 2000s. Second, the role of the foreign sector on the unemployment trajectory was significant in Finland, its quantitative impact being one‐third of the effect for the capital stock in the first and third periods, and half of the latter in the second period.Originality/valueThe results illustrate the importance of non‐standard labour market variables in examin...
Stated preference valuation surveys often ask respondents for periodical payments, sometimes for ... more Stated preference valuation surveys often ask respondents for periodical payments, sometimes for the remaining life of the individuals. Questionnaires do not usually specify whether those payments would vary according to inflation. This may be less important in low-inflation economies, but results could differ significantly in high-inflation countries. A contingent choice exercise was conducted to explore the severity of this effect in Argentina. The empirical application focused on an anthropogenic-pressure mitigation program for the basins of the Mendoza region. A comparison of willingness-to-pay results from a scenario where annual payments were to be increased according to inflation with another of fixed annuities, found inflation to be significantly influential on respondents' stated values. Furthermore, a test on the robustness of the estimated values found results to be consistent with prior expectations.
This paper takes a fresh look at the analysis of labour market dynamics and argues that capital a... more This paper takes a fresh look at the analysis of labour market dynamics and argues that capital accumulation plays a fundamental role in shaping unemployment movements. This role has generally been examined by considering indirect transmission channels of the capital stock e ects, i.e. using variables like interest rates or investment ratios in the estimation of single-equation unemployment rate models. Here we advocate a di erent approach. We directly estimate the e ects of capital stock in the labour market by applying the chain reaction theory of unemployment, and we find that capital stock is a major determinant of unemployment in the Nordic countries. In particular, the di erent unemployment experiences of these economies derive from the temporary (albeit prolonged) negative shocks to capital stock growth in Denmark and Sweden, and the permanent downturn of capital stock growth in Finland. We are thus able to explain why the crisis of the early 1990s had a more accute impact in Finland than in its twin economy, Sweden.
We reconsider the central role of the natural rate of unemployment (NRU) in forming policy decisi... more We reconsider the central role of the natural rate of unemployment (NRU) in forming policy decisions. We show that the unemployment rate does not gravitate towards the NRU due to frictional growth, a phenomenon that encapsulates the interplay between lagged adjustment processes and growth in dynamic labour market systems. We choose Denmark as the focal point of our empirical analysis and find that the NRU explains only 33% of the unemployment variation, while frictional growth accounts for the remaining 67%. Therefore, our theoretical and empirical findings raise doubts as to whether the NRU should play such a key instrumental role in policy making.
This paper takes a fresh look at the analysis of labour market dynamics and argues that capital a... more This paper takes a fresh look at the analysis of labour market dynamics and argues that capital accumulation plays a fundamental role in shaping unemployment movements. This role has generally been examined by considering indirect transmission channels of the capital stock e ects, i.e. using variables like interest rates or investment ratios in the estimation of single-equation unemployment rate models. Here we advocate a di erent approach. We directly estimate the e ects of capital stock in the labour market by applying the chain reaction theory of unemployment, and we find that capital stock is a major determinant of unemployment in the Nordic countries. In particular, the di erent unemployment experiences of these economies derive from the temporary (albeit prolonged) negative shocks to capital stock growth in Denmark and Sweden, and the permanent downturn of capital stock growth in Finland. We are thus able to explain why the crisis of the early 1990s had a more accute impact in Finland than in its twin economy, Sweden.
This paper analyses the labour markets of Spain and Ireland, which have experienced a severe down... more This paper analyses the labour markets of Spain and Ireland, which have experienced a severe downturn in the recent global crisis as reflected by the largest increases in their unemployment rates among other developed economies. Spain and Ireland might seem at first to feature very different labour markets, which go from very tight to very flexible labour conditions. Our analysis, however, goes beyond this simplistic argument and brings to light the strong commonalities that seem to have been hidden underground. We estimate a dynamic multi-equation structural model for each country, and then offer two sets of dynamic simulations which account for the swings of the unemployment rates before and after the 2007 crisis. Our results suggest looking beyond the degree of flexibility of both labour markets, just to focus instead on other variables usually neglected by more conventional approaches. In particular, such variables as the growth of capital stock, the growth of labour productivity, and demographics, succeed in explaining a great part of the changes in unemployment in both countries.
Palabras clave: desempleo, teoría de la reacción en cadena, stock de capital. 1. INTRODUCCIÓN La ... more Palabras clave: desempleo, teoría de la reacción en cadena, stock de capital. 1. INTRODUCCIÓN La dinámica del mercado de trabajo refleja la eficacia de una economía como generadora de empleo y de oportunidades. En este sentido, los países nórdicos-Dinamarca, Finlandia, Islandia, Noruega y Suecia-reflejan claramente esta eficacia. Estos países se caracterizan por sus sistemas de estado de bienestar bien desarrollados, por sus bajos niveles de desigualdad de ingresos y por su buen desempeño macroeconómico en comparación con las grandes economías del mundo. Además, sus mercados de trabajo son muy dinámicos, lo que se combina con una elevada protección, altas tasas de actividad y bajos niveles de desempleo. En particular, nuestro análisis se centra en Islandia y Noruega porque a pesar de pertenecer a este grupo de países, éstos poseen ciertas características específicas que los hacen diferentes a Dinamarca, Finlandia y Suecia. Por ejemplo, la experiencia de Islandia y Noruega es mucho m...
Palabras clave: desempleo, teoría de la reacción en cadena, stock de capital. 1. INTRODUCCIÓN Dur... more Palabras clave: desempleo, teoría de la reacción en cadena, stock de capital. 1. INTRODUCCIÓN Durante las últimas décadas, muchos han sido los trabajos que han estudiado el mercado de trabajo desde una óptica macroeconómica. Uno de los enfoques más recientes, y el que utilizamos en nuestro análisis, es el de la teoría de la reacción en cadena (TRC), inicialmente desarrollado por Karanassou y Snower (1996). Este enfoque postula que los movimientos de la tasa de desempleo surgen de la interacción entre los shocks del mercado de trabajo y los procesos de ajustes rezagados. En este trabajo centramos la atención en el mercado de trabajo de dos países nórdicos: Islandia y Noruega con un triple objetivo. Primero, estimamos una oferta de trabajo para cada país para establecer cuáles son las variables que guían el
Fil: Farreras Gonzalez, Veronica Ines. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas... more Fil: Farreras Gonzalez, Veronica Ines. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Cientifico Tecnologico Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivologia, Glaciologia y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Economicas; Argentina
En este trabajo examinamos el comportamiento del mercado de trabajo de Islandia y Noruega en las ... more En este trabajo examinamos el comportamiento del mercado de trabajo de Islandia y Noruega en las últimas décadas y en particular analizamos el proceso de formación salarial desde la óptica de la teoría de la reacción en cadena (TRC). Nuestras ecuaciones de salarios estimadas indican que en ambos países los salarios vienen determinados por los mismos factores: a) un componente que muestra la influencia que ejercen las decisiones del pasado en las decisiones presentes, b) la productividad del empleo, c) los subsidios de desempleo y d) la tasa de desempleo. Así, nuestros resultados refuerzan la hipótesis de la TRC sobre la importancia de utilizar conjuntamente variables estacionarias (instituciones del mercado de trabajo) y variables no estacionarias (variables con tendencia) para analizar el comportamiento del mercado de trabajo o de alguno de sus componentes, como en este caso el proceso de formación salarial.
PurposeThis paper aims to provide an account of the unemployment performance of two Nordic countr... more PurposeThis paper aims to provide an account of the unemployment performance of two Nordic countries during their recent labour market booms and slumps.Design/methodology/approachBased on the empirical models of Karanassou et al., we conduct dynamic simulation exercises and explore the determinants of unemployment.FindingsThe analysis yields two main findings. First, the capital stock was the most important determinant of the unemployment trajectory in both countries. This result appears in all periods considered: in the slump of the early 1990s and the boom of the late 1990s, as well as in the stabilisation period of the early 2000s. Second, the role of the foreign sector on the unemployment trajectory was significant in Finland, its quantitative impact being one‐third of the effect for the capital stock in the first and third periods, and half of the latter in the second period.Originality/valueThe results illustrate the importance of non‐standard labour market variables in examin...
Stated preference valuation surveys often ask respondents for periodical payments, sometimes for ... more Stated preference valuation surveys often ask respondents for periodical payments, sometimes for the remaining life of the individuals. Questionnaires do not usually specify whether those payments would vary according to inflation. This may be less important in low-inflation economies, but results could differ significantly in high-inflation countries. A contingent choice exercise was conducted to explore the severity of this effect in Argentina. The empirical application focused on an anthropogenic-pressure mitigation program for the basins of the Mendoza region. A comparison of willingness-to-pay results from a scenario where annual payments were to be increased according to inflation with another of fixed annuities, found inflation to be significantly influential on respondents' stated values. Furthermore, a test on the robustness of the estimated values found results to be consistent with prior expectations.
This paper takes a fresh look at the analysis of labour market dynamics and argues that capital a... more This paper takes a fresh look at the analysis of labour market dynamics and argues that capital accumulation plays a fundamental role in shaping unemployment movements. This role has generally been examined by considering indirect transmission channels of the capital stock e ects, i.e. using variables like interest rates or investment ratios in the estimation of single-equation unemployment rate models. Here we advocate a di erent approach. We directly estimate the e ects of capital stock in the labour market by applying the chain reaction theory of unemployment, and we find that capital stock is a major determinant of unemployment in the Nordic countries. In particular, the di erent unemployment experiences of these economies derive from the temporary (albeit prolonged) negative shocks to capital stock growth in Denmark and Sweden, and the permanent downturn of capital stock growth in Finland. We are thus able to explain why the crisis of the early 1990s had a more accute impact in Finland than in its twin economy, Sweden.
We reconsider the central role of the natural rate of unemployment (NRU) in forming policy decisi... more We reconsider the central role of the natural rate of unemployment (NRU) in forming policy decisions. We show that the unemployment rate does not gravitate towards the NRU due to frictional growth, a phenomenon that encapsulates the interplay between lagged adjustment processes and growth in dynamic labour market systems. We choose Denmark as the focal point of our empirical analysis and find that the NRU explains only 33% of the unemployment variation, while frictional growth accounts for the remaining 67%. Therefore, our theoretical and empirical findings raise doubts as to whether the NRU should play such a key instrumental role in policy making.
This paper takes a fresh look at the analysis of labour market dynamics and argues that capital a... more This paper takes a fresh look at the analysis of labour market dynamics and argues that capital accumulation plays a fundamental role in shaping unemployment movements. This role has generally been examined by considering indirect transmission channels of the capital stock e ects, i.e. using variables like interest rates or investment ratios in the estimation of single-equation unemployment rate models. Here we advocate a di erent approach. We directly estimate the e ects of capital stock in the labour market by applying the chain reaction theory of unemployment, and we find that capital stock is a major determinant of unemployment in the Nordic countries. In particular, the di erent unemployment experiences of these economies derive from the temporary (albeit prolonged) negative shocks to capital stock growth in Denmark and Sweden, and the permanent downturn of capital stock growth in Finland. We are thus able to explain why the crisis of the early 1990s had a more accute impact in Finland than in its twin economy, Sweden.
This paper analyses the labour markets of Spain and Ireland, which have experienced a severe down... more This paper analyses the labour markets of Spain and Ireland, which have experienced a severe downturn in the recent global crisis as reflected by the largest increases in their unemployment rates among other developed economies. Spain and Ireland might seem at first to feature very different labour markets, which go from very tight to very flexible labour conditions. Our analysis, however, goes beyond this simplistic argument and brings to light the strong commonalities that seem to have been hidden underground. We estimate a dynamic multi-equation structural model for each country, and then offer two sets of dynamic simulations which account for the swings of the unemployment rates before and after the 2007 crisis. Our results suggest looking beyond the degree of flexibility of both labour markets, just to focus instead on other variables usually neglected by more conventional approaches. In particular, such variables as the growth of capital stock, the growth of labour productivity, and demographics, succeed in explaining a great part of the changes in unemployment in both countries.
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