Climate change can have an impact on natural and human systems. This is usually the case with ren... more Climate change can have an impact on natural and human systems. This is usually the case with renewable-energy-based energy systems, given their close dependence on climate conditions. For instance, long-term changes in temperature, precipitation, and wind shear, among other factors, can affect the operation of existing energy systems and even compromise the viability of new entrepreneurships. Therefore, global climate change can add a significant amount of uncertainty to the already uncertain operation of renewable energy systems. This article gives an overview of the issues related to climate change impacts on hydropower production with a focus on Amazonian regions.
Realização:
Fundação Brasileira para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável - FBDS
Autores:
Roberto Schaef... more Realização: Fundação Brasileira para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável - FBDS Autores: Roberto Schaeffer André Frossard Pereira de Lucena Alexandre Salem Szklo Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba Larissa Pinheiro Pupo Nogueira Régis Rathmann Rafael Soria
The people of Amazonia bear the local environmentalimpacts of producing energy for
exports, but... more The people of Amazonia bear the local environmentalimpacts of producing energy for exports, but are not themselves energy secure. Paradoxically, although Amazonia’s rural populations are not energy secure, the region itself is increasingly important to South America's energy security. Oil and gas reserves are abundant, hydropower potential is vast and built infrastructure to harness its potential is being developed rapidly. This study presents a preliminary energy balance for the Amazonian region of five of the countries that belong to the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO): Bolivia, Brazil Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. Despite the poor availability of data, a quantitative analysis of energy was performed for the Amazon region of each country following the established methodology of OLADE, “Manual de Estadísticas Energéticas”. Primary and secondary energy production, energy consumption and import/export of energy carriers are presented for the Amazon region of each selected country. Additional charts depicted proven energy endowments reserves, technical hydropower potential and installed electric power generation capacity. Once the most used energy carriers within Amazonia were identified, the threats and impacts to energy security inside and outside the Amazon region are presented. This discussion raises the need for developing policies focused on energy security for these regions, while balancing ecological, economic and social impacts.
This report was produced by UFRJ/COPPE/Energy Planning Program (PPE): Prof. Andre Lucena, D.Sc., ... more This report was produced by UFRJ/COPPE/Energy Planning Program (PPE): Prof. Andre Lucena, D.Sc., Prof. Roberto Schaeffer, Ph.D., Prof. Alexandre Szklo, D.Sc., Rafael Soria, M.Sc., Mauro Chavez, M.Sc
The availability and reliability of wind power depend a great deal on current and future climate ... more The availability and reliability of wind power depend a great deal on current and future climate conditions, which may vary in light of possible global climate change (GCC). Long-term energy planning, however, does not normally take possible future GCC into consideration, which may turn out to be a risky exercise. In the case of Brazil, the untapped wind power potential is known to be impressive, provided that climate conditions remain the same over time. The focus of this study is to analyze some possible impacts of GCC on the wind power potential of Brazil, by simulating wind conditions associated with the IPCC A2 and B2 Scenarios. Results based on the HadCM3 general circulation model and the analysis of the country's wind database indicate that the wind power potential in Brazil would not be jeopardized in the future due to possible new climate conditions. On the contrary, improved wind conditions are expected, particularly in the Northeast coast of the country. Therefore, investments in wind power generation can be an interesting way to expand renewable energy production in Brazil. However, given the large uncertainties associated with GCC models and scenarios, the findings of this paper should be viewed as a possibility rather than as a projection.
Global climate change induced by the emission of greenhouse gases may pose challenges to energy s... more Global climate change induced by the emission of greenhouse gases may pose challenges to energy security. The vulnerability of energy sources, in particular of renewable sources, to climate change raises the need to identify adaptation measures. This paper applies an integrated resource planning approach to calculate least-cost adaptation measures to a set of projected climate impacts on the Brazilian power sector. The methodology used has the advantage of finding optimal solutions that take into consideration the whole energy chain and the interactions between energy supply and demand. Results point in the direction of an increased installed capacity based, mostly, on natural gas, but also sugarcane bagasse, wind power and coal/nuclear plants, to compensate for a lower reliability of hydroelectric production, amongst other impacts. The indirect effect of these results is the displacement of natural gas from other consuming sectors, such as industry, in favor of its use for power generation. Results obtained are, however, based on the techno-economic premises used in the simulation, which may vary in the long term.
This paper estimates the potential for energy-related greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions in... more This paper estimates the potential for energy-related greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions in Brazil, their abatement costs and proposes a number of policies to achieve these reductions. The Brazilian energy system is very peculiar as renewable energy accounts for some 45% of total primary energy and 85% of electricity production. The following sectors are covered in this paper: industry, transports and petroleum sector. Compared to a business-as-usual reference scenario, results show a potential to reduce future energy-related GHG emissions by 27% in 2030. However, in spite of that, the mitigation potential identified here is not large enough, in absolute terms, to reduce energy-related GHG emissions below the current level in Brazil by 2030.
Energy supply in Brazil relies heavily on renewable energy source. The production of energy from ... more Energy supply in Brazil relies heavily on renewable energy source. The production of energy from renewable sources, however, greatly depends on climatic conditions, which may be impacted in the future due to global climate change (GCC). This paper analyzes the vulnerabilities ...
Climate change can have an impact on natural and human systems. This is usually the case with ren... more Climate change can have an impact on natural and human systems. This is usually the case with renewable-energy-based energy systems, given their close dependence on climate conditions. For instance, long-term changes in temperature, precipitation, and wind shear, among other factors, can affect the operation of existing energy systems and even compromise the viability of new entrepreneurships. Therefore, global climate change can add a significant amount of uncertainty to the already uncertain operation of renewable energy systems. This article gives an overview of the issues related to climate change impacts on hydropower production with a focus on Amazonian regions.
Realização:
Fundação Brasileira para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável - FBDS
Autores:
Roberto Schaef... more Realização: Fundação Brasileira para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável - FBDS Autores: Roberto Schaeffer André Frossard Pereira de Lucena Alexandre Salem Szklo Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba Larissa Pinheiro Pupo Nogueira Régis Rathmann Rafael Soria
The people of Amazonia bear the local environmentalimpacts of producing energy for
exports, but... more The people of Amazonia bear the local environmentalimpacts of producing energy for exports, but are not themselves energy secure. Paradoxically, although Amazonia’s rural populations are not energy secure, the region itself is increasingly important to South America's energy security. Oil and gas reserves are abundant, hydropower potential is vast and built infrastructure to harness its potential is being developed rapidly. This study presents a preliminary energy balance for the Amazonian region of five of the countries that belong to the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO): Bolivia, Brazil Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. Despite the poor availability of data, a quantitative analysis of energy was performed for the Amazon region of each country following the established methodology of OLADE, “Manual de Estadísticas Energéticas”. Primary and secondary energy production, energy consumption and import/export of energy carriers are presented for the Amazon region of each selected country. Additional charts depicted proven energy endowments reserves, technical hydropower potential and installed electric power generation capacity. Once the most used energy carriers within Amazonia were identified, the threats and impacts to energy security inside and outside the Amazon region are presented. This discussion raises the need for developing policies focused on energy security for these regions, while balancing ecological, economic and social impacts.
This report was produced by UFRJ/COPPE/Energy Planning Program (PPE): Prof. Andre Lucena, D.Sc., ... more This report was produced by UFRJ/COPPE/Energy Planning Program (PPE): Prof. Andre Lucena, D.Sc., Prof. Roberto Schaeffer, Ph.D., Prof. Alexandre Szklo, D.Sc., Rafael Soria, M.Sc., Mauro Chavez, M.Sc
The availability and reliability of wind power depend a great deal on current and future climate ... more The availability and reliability of wind power depend a great deal on current and future climate conditions, which may vary in light of possible global climate change (GCC). Long-term energy planning, however, does not normally take possible future GCC into consideration, which may turn out to be a risky exercise. In the case of Brazil, the untapped wind power potential is known to be impressive, provided that climate conditions remain the same over time. The focus of this study is to analyze some possible impacts of GCC on the wind power potential of Brazil, by simulating wind conditions associated with the IPCC A2 and B2 Scenarios. Results based on the HadCM3 general circulation model and the analysis of the country's wind database indicate that the wind power potential in Brazil would not be jeopardized in the future due to possible new climate conditions. On the contrary, improved wind conditions are expected, particularly in the Northeast coast of the country. Therefore, investments in wind power generation can be an interesting way to expand renewable energy production in Brazil. However, given the large uncertainties associated with GCC models and scenarios, the findings of this paper should be viewed as a possibility rather than as a projection.
Global climate change induced by the emission of greenhouse gases may pose challenges to energy s... more Global climate change induced by the emission of greenhouse gases may pose challenges to energy security. The vulnerability of energy sources, in particular of renewable sources, to climate change raises the need to identify adaptation measures. This paper applies an integrated resource planning approach to calculate least-cost adaptation measures to a set of projected climate impacts on the Brazilian power sector. The methodology used has the advantage of finding optimal solutions that take into consideration the whole energy chain and the interactions between energy supply and demand. Results point in the direction of an increased installed capacity based, mostly, on natural gas, but also sugarcane bagasse, wind power and coal/nuclear plants, to compensate for a lower reliability of hydroelectric production, amongst other impacts. The indirect effect of these results is the displacement of natural gas from other consuming sectors, such as industry, in favor of its use for power generation. Results obtained are, however, based on the techno-economic premises used in the simulation, which may vary in the long term.
This paper estimates the potential for energy-related greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions in... more This paper estimates the potential for energy-related greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions in Brazil, their abatement costs and proposes a number of policies to achieve these reductions. The Brazilian energy system is very peculiar as renewable energy accounts for some 45% of total primary energy and 85% of electricity production. The following sectors are covered in this paper: industry, transports and petroleum sector. Compared to a business-as-usual reference scenario, results show a potential to reduce future energy-related GHG emissions by 27% in 2030. However, in spite of that, the mitigation potential identified here is not large enough, in absolute terms, to reduce energy-related GHG emissions below the current level in Brazil by 2030.
Energy supply in Brazil relies heavily on renewable energy source. The production of energy from ... more Energy supply in Brazil relies heavily on renewable energy source. The production of energy from renewable sources, however, greatly depends on climatic conditions, which may be impacted in the future due to global climate change (GCC). This paper analyzes the vulnerabilities ...
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Papers by Andre Lucena
Fundação Brasileira para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável - FBDS
Autores:
Roberto Schaeffer
André Frossard Pereira de Lucena
Alexandre Salem Szklo
Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba
Larissa Pinheiro Pupo Nogueira
Régis Rathmann
Rafael Soria
exports, but are not themselves energy secure. Paradoxically, although Amazonia’s
rural populations are not energy secure, the region itself is increasingly important to
South America's energy security. Oil and gas reserves are abundant, hydropower
potential is vast and built infrastructure to harness its potential is being developed
rapidly. This study presents a preliminary energy balance for the Amazonian region of
five of the countries that belong to the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization
(ACTO): Bolivia, Brazil Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. Despite the poor availability of
data, a quantitative analysis of energy was performed for the Amazon region of each
country following the established methodology of OLADE, “Manual de Estadísticas
Energéticas”. Primary and secondary energy production, energy consumption and
import/export of energy carriers are presented for the Amazon region of each selected
country. Additional charts depicted proven energy endowments reserves, technical
hydropower potential and installed electric power generation capacity. Once the most
used energy carriers within Amazonia were identified, the threats and impacts to
energy security inside and outside the Amazon region are presented. This discussion
raises the need for developing policies focused on energy security for these regions,
while balancing ecological, economic and social impacts.
Prof. Alexandre Szklo, D.Sc., Rafael Soria, M.Sc., Mauro Chavez, M.Sc
© Institute of Development Studies/Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro 2015
Autors: Roberto Schaeffer, André F.P. Lucena, Régis Rathmann, Alexandre Szklo, Rafael Soria and Mauro Chavez-Rodriguez. April 2015
Fundação Brasileira para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável - FBDS
Autores:
Roberto Schaeffer
André Frossard Pereira de Lucena
Alexandre Salem Szklo
Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba
Larissa Pinheiro Pupo Nogueira
Régis Rathmann
Rafael Soria
exports, but are not themselves energy secure. Paradoxically, although Amazonia’s
rural populations are not energy secure, the region itself is increasingly important to
South America's energy security. Oil and gas reserves are abundant, hydropower
potential is vast and built infrastructure to harness its potential is being developed
rapidly. This study presents a preliminary energy balance for the Amazonian region of
five of the countries that belong to the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization
(ACTO): Bolivia, Brazil Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. Despite the poor availability of
data, a quantitative analysis of energy was performed for the Amazon region of each
country following the established methodology of OLADE, “Manual de Estadísticas
Energéticas”. Primary and secondary energy production, energy consumption and
import/export of energy carriers are presented for the Amazon region of each selected
country. Additional charts depicted proven energy endowments reserves, technical
hydropower potential and installed electric power generation capacity. Once the most
used energy carriers within Amazonia were identified, the threats and impacts to
energy security inside and outside the Amazon region are presented. This discussion
raises the need for developing policies focused on energy security for these regions,
while balancing ecological, economic and social impacts.
Prof. Alexandre Szklo, D.Sc., Rafael Soria, M.Sc., Mauro Chavez, M.Sc
© Institute of Development Studies/Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro 2015
Autors: Roberto Schaeffer, André F.P. Lucena, Régis Rathmann, Alexandre Szklo, Rafael Soria and Mauro Chavez-Rodriguez. April 2015