In the context of calls for ‘de-growth’ (reduction in gross domestic product, [GDP]) in developed... more In the context of calls for ‘de-growth’ (reduction in gross domestic product, [GDP]) in developed countries for them to be able to reduce emissions to ‘net zero’ in time for the temperature target in the Paris Agreement to be met, this article explores the various impacts on economic growth in the scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that limit the average global temperature increase in 2100 to 1.5°C. It finds that the impacts are generally small and that in no case is ‘degrowth’ required, although the requirements for the rate and nature of technological developments are challenging. The article then reports on a modelling exercise that investigates in more detail the economic dynamics of achieving the 1.5°C target. It finds that, as with the IPCC scenarios, and assuming the feasibility of at-scale deployment of carbon capture and negative emission technologies, economic growth continues throughout this century, with a major contribution coming from the...
stabilise global resource use by 2050 and boost incomes and economic growth. Looking forward, the... more stabilise global resource use by 2050 and boost incomes and economic growth. Looking forward, the report demonstrates numerous examples from different countries around the world of increasing resource efficiency in different sectors. It thereby puts the different challenges ahead into perspective and illustrates how to learn from each other and how to scale up what is working. We are very grateful to Paul Ekins and Nicholas Hughes for their tremendous effort in presenting a comprehensive up-to-date perspective for understanding the potentials and economic implications of resource efficiency. Their remarkable work gives us hope that with engaged actors, it will be possible for us to improve wellbeing for everyone and protect the planet today and tomorrow.
The IRP Report on Mineral Resource Governance in the 21st Century was requested by the IRP Steeri... more The IRP Report on Mineral Resource Governance in the 21st Century was requested by the IRP Steering Committee at its 18th Meeting (Cape Town, 6–9 June 2016). The Report also responds to a Recommendation adopted at the 21st Meeting of the Convention on Biological Diversity Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice (Montreal, 11–14 December 2017).1The structure and content of the Report was informed by a series of expert workshops convened in Davos (15–16 October 2015), Accra (26–27 September 2016), Helsinki (9-10 June 2017), and Lima (22–24 November 2017). It was also informed by a global stakeholder consultation process.
The natural science in GEO-6 makes clear that a range and variety of unwelcome outcomes for human... more The natural science in GEO-6 makes clear that a range and variety of unwelcome outcomes for humanity, with potentially very significant impacts for human health, become increasingly likely if societies maintain their current development paths. This paper assesses what is known about the likely economic implications of either current trends or the transformation to a low-carbon and resource-efficient economy in the years to 2050 for which GEO-6 calls. A key conclusion is that no conventional cost–benefit analysis for either scenario is possible. This is because the final cost of meeting various decarbonisation and resource-management pathways depends on decisions made today in changing behaviour and generating innovation. The inadequacies of conventional modelling approaches generally lead to understating the risks from unmitigated climate change and overstating the costs of a low-carbon transition, by missing out the cumulative gains from path-dependent innovation. This leads to a f...
A number of European countries have introduced a variety of environmental taxes. A common charact... more A number of European countries have introduced a variety of environmental taxes. A common characteristic of their implementation is the inclusion of exemptions and tax relief, in particular for (some sectors of) manufacturing industry. This paper analyses the pattern and motivation of exemptions as they have developed in Western European countries, making clear the difference between the nominal and effective tax rates once the exemptions have been taken into account. The principal motivation for exemptions relates to concern about competitiveness. While particular environmentally-intensive sectors may have some grounds for concern, even these might be able to achieve cost-effective environmental improvements, such that their competitive position is not overdisadvantaged, while for an economy structured like the UK's, an environmental tax plus rebate scheme, sometimes called an ecological tax reform, would be likely to yield benefits in terms of competitiveness. The exemptions usually run counter to the environmental economic logic of using environmental taxes to internalise social costs and give economic signals that are based on the full costs of production, and they are likely to increase the costs of achieving a given level of emission reduction. With little justification for them also on the grounds of competitiveness, it would therefore be undesirable on both economic and environmental grounds for them to remain a feature of the implementation of environmental taxes in the future.
This project uses the global TIMES Integrated Assessment Model in UCL ('TIAM-UCL') to provide rob... more This project uses the global TIMES Integrated Assessment Model in UCL ('TIAM-UCL') to provide robust quantitative insights into the future of natural gas in the energy system and in particular whether or not gas has the potential to act as a 'bridge' to a low-carbon future on both a global and regional basis out to 2050.
In Challenges For Integrated Assessment in a Fast Changing World Efiea Conference Berlin Challenges For Integrated Assessment in a Fast Changing World Efiea Conference Berlin 2005, Mar 1, 2005
The Meeting Place-hosting events for the whole of the UK energy research community-www.ukerc.ac.u... more The Meeting Place-hosting events for the whole of the UK energy research community-www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/TheMeetingPlace National Energy Research Network-a weekly newsletter containing news, jobs, events, opportunities and developments across the energy field-www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/NERN Research Atlas-the definitive information resource for current and past UK energy research and development activity-http://ukerc.rl.ac.uk UKERC Publications Catalogue-all UKERC publications and articles available online, via www.ukerc.ac.uk Follow us on Twitter @UKERCHQ UKERC is funded by The Research Councils UK Energy Programme. The Research Councils UK Energy Programme aims to position the UK to meet its energy and environmental targets and policy goals through world-class research and training. 1 UKERC Research Report UK Energy in a Global Context One of the key objectives of the UK Energy Research Centre's research during the past few years has been to explore in more detail the global context for energy that UK energy policies will need to take into account, if they are to be successful. UKERC's global energy research has been brought together in a major new book: Global Energy: Issues, Potentials and Policy Implications which will be published by Oxford University Press in 2014. The book lays out clearly the global context within which the supply and use of energy in the UK seems likely to be situated over the next three or four decades. This report complements the book, and discusses the implications of global energy trends for the UK. It elaborates the options and choices for the UK in the light of UK energy issues and trends, and current energy infrastructures, markets and regulation. It also discusses the policies that are intended to determine the direction in which they develop.
The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of... more The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of climate change, and the necessary policy responses, in order to ensure the highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide. This Commission is multidisciplinary and international in nature, with strong collaboration between academic centres in Europe and China. The central finding from the Commission's work is that tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century. The key messages from the Commission are summarised below, accompanied by ten underlying recommendations to accelerate action in the next 5 years. The effects of climate change are being felt today, and future projections represent an unacceptably high and potentially catastrophic risk to human health The implications of climate change for a global population of 9 billion people threatens to undermine the last half century o f gains in development and global health. The direct effects of climate change include increased heat stress, floods, drought, and increased frequency of intense storms, with the indirect threatening population health through adverse changes in air pollution, the spread of disease vectors, food insecurity and under-nutrition, displacement, and mental ill health. Keeping the global average temperature rise to less than 2°C to avoid the risk of potentially catastrophic climate change impacts requires total anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to be kept below 2900 billion tonnes (GtCO2) by the end of the century. As of 2011, total emissions since 1870 were a little over half of this, with current trends expected to exceed 2900 GtCO2 in the next 15-30 years. High-end emissions projection scenarios show global average warming of 2•6-4•8°C by the end of the century, with all their regional amplification and attendant impacts. Tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century Given the potential of climate change to reverse the health gains from economic development, and the health co-benefits that accrue from actions for a sustainable economy, tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of this century. Many mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change are "no-regret" options, which lead to direct reductions in the burden of ill-health, enhance community resilience, alleviate poverty, and address global inequity. Benefits are realised by ensuring that countries are unconstrained by climate change, enabling them to achieve better health and wellbeing for their populations. These strategies will also reduce pressures on national health budgets, delivering potentially large cost savings, and enable investments in stronger, more resilient health systems. The Commission recommends that over the next 5 years, governments: 1 Invest in climate change and public health research, monitoring, and surveillance to ensure a better understanding of the adaptation needs and the potential health co-benefits of climate mitigation at the local and national level. 2 Scale-up financing for climate resilient health systems worldwide. Donor countries have a responsibility to support measures which reduce the impacts of climate change on human wellbeing and support adaptation. This must enable the strengthening of health systems in lowincome and middle-income countries, and reduce the environmental impact of health care. 3 Protect cardiovascular and respiratory health by ensuring a rapid phase out of coal from the global energy mix. Many of the 2 200 coalfired plants currently proposed for construction globally will damage health unless replaced with cleaner energy alternatives. As part of the transition to renewable energy, there will be a cautious transitional role for natural gas. The phase out of coal is prop osed as part of an early and decisive policy package which targets air pollution from the transport, agriculture, and energy sectors, and aims t o reduce the health burden of particulate matter (especially PM2.5) and short-lived climate pollutants, thus yielding immediate gains for society. 4 Encourage a transition to cities that support and promote lifestyles that are healthy for the individual and for the planet. Steps to achieve this include development of a highly energy efficient building stock; ease of low-cost active transportation; and increased access to green spaces. Such measures improve adaptive capacity, whilst also reducing urban pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and rates of cardiovascular disease, cancer, obesity, diabetes, mental illness, and respiratory disease. Achieving a decarbonised global economy and securing the public health benefits it offers is no longer primarily a technical or economic question-it is now a political one Major technical advances have made buildings and vehicles more efficient and renewable energy sources far more cost effective. Globally, there is plentiful financial resource available, however much of it is still being directed towards the fossil-fuel industry. Bold political commitment can ensure that the technical expertise, technology, and finance to prevent further significant climate change is readily available, and is not a barrier to action. The Commission recommends that over the next 5 years, governments: 5 Establish the framework for a strong, predictable, and international carbon pricing mechanism. 6 Rapidly expand access to renewable energy in low-income and middle-income countries, thus providing reliable electricity for communities and health facilities; unlocking substantial economic gains; and promoting health equity. Indeed, a global development pathway that fails to achieve this expansion will come at a detriment to public health, and will not achieve long-term economic growth. 7 Accurate quantification of the avoided burden of disease, reduced health-care costs, and enhanced economic productivity is essential, and will be most effective when combined with adequate local capacity and political support to develop low-carbon healthy energy choices. The health community has a vital part to play in accelerating progress to tackle climate change Health professionals have worked to protect against health threats, such as tobacco, HIV/AIDS, and polio, and have often confronted powerful entrenched interests in doing so. Likewise, they must be leaders in responding to the health threat of climate change. A public health perspective has the potential to unite all actors behind a common cause-the health and wellbeing of our families, communities, and countries. These concepts are far more tangible and visceral than tonnes of atmospheric CO2, and are understood and prioritised across all populations irrespective of culture or development status. Reducing inequities within and between countries is crucial to promoting climate change resilience and improving global health. Neither can be delivered without accompanying sustainable development that addresses key health determinants: access to safe water and clean air, food security, strong and accessible health systems, and reductions in social and economic inequity. Any prioritisation in global health must therefore place sustainable development and climate change front and centre. The Commission recommends that over the next 5 years, governments: 8 Adopt mechanisms to facilitate collaboration between Ministries of Health and other government departments, empow ering health professionals and ensuring that health and climate considerations are thoroughly integrated in government-wide strategies. A siloed approach to protecting human health from climate change will not work. This must acknowledge and seek to addres s the extent to which additional global environmental changes, such as deforestation, biodiversity loss, and ocean acidification, will impact on hu man health and decrease resilience to climate change. 9 Agree and implement an international agreement that supports countries in transitioning to a low-carbon economy. Whilst the negotiations are very complex, their goals are very simple: agree on ambitious and enforceable global mitigation targets, on adaptation of finance to protect countries' rights to sustainable development, and on the policies and mechanisms that enable these measures. To this end, international responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is shared: interventions that reduce emissions and promote global public health must be prioritised irrespective of national boundaries. Responding to climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century. To help drive this transition, the 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change will: 10 Develop a new, independent Countdown to 2030: Global Health and Climate Action, to provide expertise in implementing policies that mitigate climate change and promote public health, and to monitor progress over the next 15 years. The Collaboration will be led by this Commission, reporting in The Lancet every 2 years, tracking, supporting, and communicating progress and success along a range of indicators in global health and climate change The physical basis The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has described the physical basis for, the impacts of, and the response options to climate change. 2 In brief, shortwave solar radiation passes through the Earth's atmosphere to warm its surface, which emits longer wavelength (infrared) radiation. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere absorb this radiation and re-emit it, sharing it with other atmospheric elements, and with the Earth below. Without this effect, surface temperatures would be more than 30°C lower than they are today. 3 One such GHG is carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily released when fossil fuels (ie, oil, coal, and natural gas) are burned. Others, such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), are generated through fossil-fuel use and...
The debate on low-carbon heat in Europe has become focused on a narrow range of technological opt... more The debate on low-carbon heat in Europe has become focused on a narrow range of technological options and has largely neglected hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, despite these receiving strong support towards commercialisation in Asia. This review examines the potential benefits of these technologies across different markets, particularly the current state of development and performance of fuel cell micro-CHP. Fuel cells offer some important benefits over other low-carbon heating technologies, and steady cost reductions through innovation are bringing fuel cells close to commercialisation in several countries. Moreover, fuel cells offer wider energy system benefits for high-latitude countries with peak electricity demands in winter. Hydrogen is a zero-carbon alternative to natural gas, which could be particularly valuable for those countries with extensive natural gas distribution networks, but many national energy system models examine neither hydrogen nor fuel cells for heating. There is a need to include hydrogen and fuel cell heating technologies in future scenario analyses, and for policymakers to take into account the full value of the potential contribution of hydrogen and fuel cells to low-carbon energy systems.
The research examined the possible effects of rapid climate change on fuel poverty (needing to sp... more The research examined the possible effects of rapid climate change on fuel poverty (needing to spend more than 10% of income to maintain a satisfactory level of warmth and other energy services in the home). One particular concern was the prospect that there might be a shutting off of the Gulf Stream, which warms Britain and the rest of north-western Europe. Computer simulations of the climate indicate that shutting down the Gulf Stream would cool England by about 3�C. Climate is not the only variable that will affect future levels of fuel poverty. The other main ones are what will happen to the energy efficiency of the building stock, to incomes and to energy prices. The aim of the project was to examine what might happen to each of these four dimensions and construct three scenarios in each dimension (most likely, high and low) to capture the range of variation in possible outcomes. A total of 81 (3x3x3x3) scenarios were modelled and analysed. Since any changes in the climate syst...
In order to stabilise the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide at a level that avoids dang... more In order to stabilise the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide at a level that avoids dangerous human interference with the climate system, it is estimated that the prudent upper limit on the remaining fossil fuel carbon that humanity can burn is of the order 0.5 trillion tons. The energy that this will generate is needed to sustain society for the interim, whilst powering the transformation to a low carbon sources of energy production. Sustaining society includes providing access to an affordable and reliable supply of energy to the 1.3 billion currently lacking such access. Climate change governance is thus inseparable from energy governance. However, the two regimes have different historical origins, guiding principles, key actors, overall goals, scope, mechanisms and interfaces with non-energy systems. Hence, the problem of decarbonising the global energy supply is complex and fraught. Here we explore the sources of difficulty, the emerging linkages between both regimes, tensions arising therein, and ways in which they could be combined to become mutually reinforcing. We argue that a more integrated approach is essential to avoid conflicting agendas and also offers potential synergies that could accelerate policy making. In this context, a complex, multi-level and multi-arena regime is unavoidable. However, policies are only as good as their real-world outcomes. In this regard, the nature of the innovation system upon which the delivery of low carbon technology relies strongly influences the nature and rate of transition achievable. Past practice, based on simplistic assumptions about the need to correct market failures is insufficient, as demonstrated by the differing success of wind energy development in different nations.
In the context of calls for ‘de-growth’ (reduction in gross domestic product, [GDP]) in developed... more In the context of calls for ‘de-growth’ (reduction in gross domestic product, [GDP]) in developed countries for them to be able to reduce emissions to ‘net zero’ in time for the temperature target in the Paris Agreement to be met, this article explores the various impacts on economic growth in the scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that limit the average global temperature increase in 2100 to 1.5°C. It finds that the impacts are generally small and that in no case is ‘degrowth’ required, although the requirements for the rate and nature of technological developments are challenging. The article then reports on a modelling exercise that investigates in more detail the economic dynamics of achieving the 1.5°C target. It finds that, as with the IPCC scenarios, and assuming the feasibility of at-scale deployment of carbon capture and negative emission technologies, economic growth continues throughout this century, with a major contribution coming from the...
stabilise global resource use by 2050 and boost incomes and economic growth. Looking forward, the... more stabilise global resource use by 2050 and boost incomes and economic growth. Looking forward, the report demonstrates numerous examples from different countries around the world of increasing resource efficiency in different sectors. It thereby puts the different challenges ahead into perspective and illustrates how to learn from each other and how to scale up what is working. We are very grateful to Paul Ekins and Nicholas Hughes for their tremendous effort in presenting a comprehensive up-to-date perspective for understanding the potentials and economic implications of resource efficiency. Their remarkable work gives us hope that with engaged actors, it will be possible for us to improve wellbeing for everyone and protect the planet today and tomorrow.
The IRP Report on Mineral Resource Governance in the 21st Century was requested by the IRP Steeri... more The IRP Report on Mineral Resource Governance in the 21st Century was requested by the IRP Steering Committee at its 18th Meeting (Cape Town, 6–9 June 2016). The Report also responds to a Recommendation adopted at the 21st Meeting of the Convention on Biological Diversity Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice (Montreal, 11–14 December 2017).1The structure and content of the Report was informed by a series of expert workshops convened in Davos (15–16 October 2015), Accra (26–27 September 2016), Helsinki (9-10 June 2017), and Lima (22–24 November 2017). It was also informed by a global stakeholder consultation process.
The natural science in GEO-6 makes clear that a range and variety of unwelcome outcomes for human... more The natural science in GEO-6 makes clear that a range and variety of unwelcome outcomes for humanity, with potentially very significant impacts for human health, become increasingly likely if societies maintain their current development paths. This paper assesses what is known about the likely economic implications of either current trends or the transformation to a low-carbon and resource-efficient economy in the years to 2050 for which GEO-6 calls. A key conclusion is that no conventional cost–benefit analysis for either scenario is possible. This is because the final cost of meeting various decarbonisation and resource-management pathways depends on decisions made today in changing behaviour and generating innovation. The inadequacies of conventional modelling approaches generally lead to understating the risks from unmitigated climate change and overstating the costs of a low-carbon transition, by missing out the cumulative gains from path-dependent innovation. This leads to a f...
A number of European countries have introduced a variety of environmental taxes. A common charact... more A number of European countries have introduced a variety of environmental taxes. A common characteristic of their implementation is the inclusion of exemptions and tax relief, in particular for (some sectors of) manufacturing industry. This paper analyses the pattern and motivation of exemptions as they have developed in Western European countries, making clear the difference between the nominal and effective tax rates once the exemptions have been taken into account. The principal motivation for exemptions relates to concern about competitiveness. While particular environmentally-intensive sectors may have some grounds for concern, even these might be able to achieve cost-effective environmental improvements, such that their competitive position is not overdisadvantaged, while for an economy structured like the UK's, an environmental tax plus rebate scheme, sometimes called an ecological tax reform, would be likely to yield benefits in terms of competitiveness. The exemptions usually run counter to the environmental economic logic of using environmental taxes to internalise social costs and give economic signals that are based on the full costs of production, and they are likely to increase the costs of achieving a given level of emission reduction. With little justification for them also on the grounds of competitiveness, it would therefore be undesirable on both economic and environmental grounds for them to remain a feature of the implementation of environmental taxes in the future.
This project uses the global TIMES Integrated Assessment Model in UCL ('TIAM-UCL') to provide rob... more This project uses the global TIMES Integrated Assessment Model in UCL ('TIAM-UCL') to provide robust quantitative insights into the future of natural gas in the energy system and in particular whether or not gas has the potential to act as a 'bridge' to a low-carbon future on both a global and regional basis out to 2050.
In Challenges For Integrated Assessment in a Fast Changing World Efiea Conference Berlin Challenges For Integrated Assessment in a Fast Changing World Efiea Conference Berlin 2005, Mar 1, 2005
The Meeting Place-hosting events for the whole of the UK energy research community-www.ukerc.ac.u... more The Meeting Place-hosting events for the whole of the UK energy research community-www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/TheMeetingPlace National Energy Research Network-a weekly newsletter containing news, jobs, events, opportunities and developments across the energy field-www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/NERN Research Atlas-the definitive information resource for current and past UK energy research and development activity-http://ukerc.rl.ac.uk UKERC Publications Catalogue-all UKERC publications and articles available online, via www.ukerc.ac.uk Follow us on Twitter @UKERCHQ UKERC is funded by The Research Councils UK Energy Programme. The Research Councils UK Energy Programme aims to position the UK to meet its energy and environmental targets and policy goals through world-class research and training. 1 UKERC Research Report UK Energy in a Global Context One of the key objectives of the UK Energy Research Centre's research during the past few years has been to explore in more detail the global context for energy that UK energy policies will need to take into account, if they are to be successful. UKERC's global energy research has been brought together in a major new book: Global Energy: Issues, Potentials and Policy Implications which will be published by Oxford University Press in 2014. The book lays out clearly the global context within which the supply and use of energy in the UK seems likely to be situated over the next three or four decades. This report complements the book, and discusses the implications of global energy trends for the UK. It elaborates the options and choices for the UK in the light of UK energy issues and trends, and current energy infrastructures, markets and regulation. It also discusses the policies that are intended to determine the direction in which they develop.
The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of... more The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of climate change, and the necessary policy responses, in order to ensure the highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide. This Commission is multidisciplinary and international in nature, with strong collaboration between academic centres in Europe and China. The central finding from the Commission's work is that tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century. The key messages from the Commission are summarised below, accompanied by ten underlying recommendations to accelerate action in the next 5 years. The effects of climate change are being felt today, and future projections represent an unacceptably high and potentially catastrophic risk to human health The implications of climate change for a global population of 9 billion people threatens to undermine the last half century o f gains in development and global health. The direct effects of climate change include increased heat stress, floods, drought, and increased frequency of intense storms, with the indirect threatening population health through adverse changes in air pollution, the spread of disease vectors, food insecurity and under-nutrition, displacement, and mental ill health. Keeping the global average temperature rise to less than 2°C to avoid the risk of potentially catastrophic climate change impacts requires total anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to be kept below 2900 billion tonnes (GtCO2) by the end of the century. As of 2011, total emissions since 1870 were a little over half of this, with current trends expected to exceed 2900 GtCO2 in the next 15-30 years. High-end emissions projection scenarios show global average warming of 2•6-4•8°C by the end of the century, with all their regional amplification and attendant impacts. Tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century Given the potential of climate change to reverse the health gains from economic development, and the health co-benefits that accrue from actions for a sustainable economy, tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of this century. Many mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change are "no-regret" options, which lead to direct reductions in the burden of ill-health, enhance community resilience, alleviate poverty, and address global inequity. Benefits are realised by ensuring that countries are unconstrained by climate change, enabling them to achieve better health and wellbeing for their populations. These strategies will also reduce pressures on national health budgets, delivering potentially large cost savings, and enable investments in stronger, more resilient health systems. The Commission recommends that over the next 5 years, governments: 1 Invest in climate change and public health research, monitoring, and surveillance to ensure a better understanding of the adaptation needs and the potential health co-benefits of climate mitigation at the local and national level. 2 Scale-up financing for climate resilient health systems worldwide. Donor countries have a responsibility to support measures which reduce the impacts of climate change on human wellbeing and support adaptation. This must enable the strengthening of health systems in lowincome and middle-income countries, and reduce the environmental impact of health care. 3 Protect cardiovascular and respiratory health by ensuring a rapid phase out of coal from the global energy mix. Many of the 2 200 coalfired plants currently proposed for construction globally will damage health unless replaced with cleaner energy alternatives. As part of the transition to renewable energy, there will be a cautious transitional role for natural gas. The phase out of coal is prop osed as part of an early and decisive policy package which targets air pollution from the transport, agriculture, and energy sectors, and aims t o reduce the health burden of particulate matter (especially PM2.5) and short-lived climate pollutants, thus yielding immediate gains for society. 4 Encourage a transition to cities that support and promote lifestyles that are healthy for the individual and for the planet. Steps to achieve this include development of a highly energy efficient building stock; ease of low-cost active transportation; and increased access to green spaces. Such measures improve adaptive capacity, whilst also reducing urban pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and rates of cardiovascular disease, cancer, obesity, diabetes, mental illness, and respiratory disease. Achieving a decarbonised global economy and securing the public health benefits it offers is no longer primarily a technical or economic question-it is now a political one Major technical advances have made buildings and vehicles more efficient and renewable energy sources far more cost effective. Globally, there is plentiful financial resource available, however much of it is still being directed towards the fossil-fuel industry. Bold political commitment can ensure that the technical expertise, technology, and finance to prevent further significant climate change is readily available, and is not a barrier to action. The Commission recommends that over the next 5 years, governments: 5 Establish the framework for a strong, predictable, and international carbon pricing mechanism. 6 Rapidly expand access to renewable energy in low-income and middle-income countries, thus providing reliable electricity for communities and health facilities; unlocking substantial economic gains; and promoting health equity. Indeed, a global development pathway that fails to achieve this expansion will come at a detriment to public health, and will not achieve long-term economic growth. 7 Accurate quantification of the avoided burden of disease, reduced health-care costs, and enhanced economic productivity is essential, and will be most effective when combined with adequate local capacity and political support to develop low-carbon healthy energy choices. The health community has a vital part to play in accelerating progress to tackle climate change Health professionals have worked to protect against health threats, such as tobacco, HIV/AIDS, and polio, and have often confronted powerful entrenched interests in doing so. Likewise, they must be leaders in responding to the health threat of climate change. A public health perspective has the potential to unite all actors behind a common cause-the health and wellbeing of our families, communities, and countries. These concepts are far more tangible and visceral than tonnes of atmospheric CO2, and are understood and prioritised across all populations irrespective of culture or development status. Reducing inequities within and between countries is crucial to promoting climate change resilience and improving global health. Neither can be delivered without accompanying sustainable development that addresses key health determinants: access to safe water and clean air, food security, strong and accessible health systems, and reductions in social and economic inequity. Any prioritisation in global health must therefore place sustainable development and climate change front and centre. The Commission recommends that over the next 5 years, governments: 8 Adopt mechanisms to facilitate collaboration between Ministries of Health and other government departments, empow ering health professionals and ensuring that health and climate considerations are thoroughly integrated in government-wide strategies. A siloed approach to protecting human health from climate change will not work. This must acknowledge and seek to addres s the extent to which additional global environmental changes, such as deforestation, biodiversity loss, and ocean acidification, will impact on hu man health and decrease resilience to climate change. 9 Agree and implement an international agreement that supports countries in transitioning to a low-carbon economy. Whilst the negotiations are very complex, their goals are very simple: agree on ambitious and enforceable global mitigation targets, on adaptation of finance to protect countries' rights to sustainable development, and on the policies and mechanisms that enable these measures. To this end, international responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is shared: interventions that reduce emissions and promote global public health must be prioritised irrespective of national boundaries. Responding to climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century. To help drive this transition, the 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change will: 10 Develop a new, independent Countdown to 2030: Global Health and Climate Action, to provide expertise in implementing policies that mitigate climate change and promote public health, and to monitor progress over the next 15 years. The Collaboration will be led by this Commission, reporting in The Lancet every 2 years, tracking, supporting, and communicating progress and success along a range of indicators in global health and climate change The physical basis The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has described the physical basis for, the impacts of, and the response options to climate change. 2 In brief, shortwave solar radiation passes through the Earth's atmosphere to warm its surface, which emits longer wavelength (infrared) radiation. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere absorb this radiation and re-emit it, sharing it with other atmospheric elements, and with the Earth below. Without this effect, surface temperatures would be more than 30°C lower than they are today. 3 One such GHG is carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily released when fossil fuels (ie, oil, coal, and natural gas) are burned. Others, such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), are generated through fossil-fuel use and...
The debate on low-carbon heat in Europe has become focused on a narrow range of technological opt... more The debate on low-carbon heat in Europe has become focused on a narrow range of technological options and has largely neglected hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, despite these receiving strong support towards commercialisation in Asia. This review examines the potential benefits of these technologies across different markets, particularly the current state of development and performance of fuel cell micro-CHP. Fuel cells offer some important benefits over other low-carbon heating technologies, and steady cost reductions through innovation are bringing fuel cells close to commercialisation in several countries. Moreover, fuel cells offer wider energy system benefits for high-latitude countries with peak electricity demands in winter. Hydrogen is a zero-carbon alternative to natural gas, which could be particularly valuable for those countries with extensive natural gas distribution networks, but many national energy system models examine neither hydrogen nor fuel cells for heating. There is a need to include hydrogen and fuel cell heating technologies in future scenario analyses, and for policymakers to take into account the full value of the potential contribution of hydrogen and fuel cells to low-carbon energy systems.
The research examined the possible effects of rapid climate change on fuel poverty (needing to sp... more The research examined the possible effects of rapid climate change on fuel poverty (needing to spend more than 10% of income to maintain a satisfactory level of warmth and other energy services in the home). One particular concern was the prospect that there might be a shutting off of the Gulf Stream, which warms Britain and the rest of north-western Europe. Computer simulations of the climate indicate that shutting down the Gulf Stream would cool England by about 3�C. Climate is not the only variable that will affect future levels of fuel poverty. The other main ones are what will happen to the energy efficiency of the building stock, to incomes and to energy prices. The aim of the project was to examine what might happen to each of these four dimensions and construct three scenarios in each dimension (most likely, high and low) to capture the range of variation in possible outcomes. A total of 81 (3x3x3x3) scenarios were modelled and analysed. Since any changes in the climate syst...
In order to stabilise the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide at a level that avoids dang... more In order to stabilise the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide at a level that avoids dangerous human interference with the climate system, it is estimated that the prudent upper limit on the remaining fossil fuel carbon that humanity can burn is of the order 0.5 trillion tons. The energy that this will generate is needed to sustain society for the interim, whilst powering the transformation to a low carbon sources of energy production. Sustaining society includes providing access to an affordable and reliable supply of energy to the 1.3 billion currently lacking such access. Climate change governance is thus inseparable from energy governance. However, the two regimes have different historical origins, guiding principles, key actors, overall goals, scope, mechanisms and interfaces with non-energy systems. Hence, the problem of decarbonising the global energy supply is complex and fraught. Here we explore the sources of difficulty, the emerging linkages between both regimes, tensions arising therein, and ways in which they could be combined to become mutually reinforcing. We argue that a more integrated approach is essential to avoid conflicting agendas and also offers potential synergies that could accelerate policy making. In this context, a complex, multi-level and multi-arena regime is unavoidable. However, policies are only as good as their real-world outcomes. In this regard, the nature of the innovation system upon which the delivery of low carbon technology relies strongly influences the nature and rate of transition achievable. Past practice, based on simplistic assumptions about the need to correct market failures is insufficient, as demonstrated by the differing success of wind energy development in different nations.
Uploads
Papers by Paul Ekins