Journal Articles by Jake Anders
A much larger proportion of English 14-year-olds expect to apply to university than ultimately ma... more A much larger proportion of English 14-year-olds expect to apply to university than ultimately make an application by age 21, but the proportion expecting to apply falls from age 14 onwards. In order to assess the role of socioeconomic status in explaining changes in expectations, this paper applies duration modelling techniques to the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England, analysing transitions in young people’s expectations both from being ‘likely to apply’ to being ‘unlikely to apply’ and vice versa. Young people’s socioeconomic background has a significant association with changes in expectations, even after controlling for prior academic attainment and other potentially confounding factors; in addition, young people’s backgrounds affect their responsiveness to new evidence on academic attainment at age 16. This suggests more could usefully be done to maintain the educational expectations of academically able young people from less advantaged families, especially providing guidance on how to view new academic results.
Since its entry into the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) in 2009, the Chine... more Since its entry into the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) in 2009, the Chinese province of Shanghai has been the top-performing economy within these international rankings. Many have interpreted this as demonstrating how Shanghai has a “world class” education system, the most effective teaching methods, and the best schools. This article questions such interpretations of the PISA results. Specifically, we argue that statements about school and school system quality require information on the progress that children make during their time at school, which the PISA rankings do not provide (at least not directly). Our empirical analysis then uses a “fuzzy” regression discontinuity design approach to demonstrate how a rather different perspective of Shanghai’s performance in PISA emerges once pupils’ academic progress over one particular school year is considered. Our key finding is that the first year of upper secondary school in Shanghai adds essentially no value (on average) to children’s PISA reading, science, and mathematics test scores.
This paper examines how young people’s early transitions into the labour market have changed betw... more This paper examines how young people’s early transitions into the labour market have changed between cohorts born in 1958, 1970, 1980, and 1990. We use sequence analysis to characterise transition patterns and identify three distinct pathways in all cohorts. An ‘Entering the Labour Market’ group has declined significantly in size (from 91% in the earliest cohort, to 37% in the most recent), an ‘Accumulating Human Capital’ group has grown in its place (from 4% to 51%), but also a ‘Potential Cause for Concern’ group has grown alongside this, reaching 12% in the most recent cohort. These trends appear to reflect behavioural rather than compositional changes. Females and those who are from a non-white ethnic background have gone from being more likely to be in the ‘Potential Cause for Concern’ group, to being less likely. Coming from a low socio-economic status background has remained a strong predictor of having a transition of this type across all four cohorts. These early transitions are important, not least since we show they are highly predictive of longer-term outcomes.
We show how young people’s expectations about application to university change during the teenage... more We show how young people’s expectations about application to university change during the teenage years, drawing on the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE). We reveal the pattern of change by family background, prior attainment at the end of primary school (measured by Key Stage 2 tests) and, critically, the combination of the two. We document the relationship between expectations about university application and the decision on whether to stay on in full-time education at 16. We point to the importance of schools in sustaining or changing expectations. We relate the expectations reported by the teenagers in LSYPE to their actual university application decisions by age 20 or 21. Expectations are high but not universally high. Family background gaps in expectations widen during the teenage years.
Given the high returns to holding a degree, it is important to understand the relationship betwee... more Given the high returns to holding a degree, it is important to understand the relationship between household income and university entry in terms of the likely consequences for social mobility. This paper provides new evidence using the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England. I provide estimates of the income gradients in university participation overall and at a group of high-status institutions (the Russell Group). I also investigate the extent to which these gaps may be driven by discrimination against students from lower-income backgrounds by universities, by considering income gradients in applications. I find substantial differences in university entry overall and at Russell Group institutions between students from high- and low-income families. However, I show that most of the difference is driven by application decisions, particularly once I control for ‘ability’ at age 11. This suggests that universities do not discriminate against students from poorer backgrounds. Instead, those students are less likely to apply. These findings suggest that policies aimed at reducing the university participation gap at the point of entry are likely to face small rewards. More likely to be successful are policies aimed at closing the substantial applications gap, particularly by ensuring that students from poorer backgrounds have the necessary qualifications to apply.
Working Papers by Jake Anders
DoQSS Working Papers, No. 14-07, Apr 2014
The increasing use of aptitude tests as part of the admissions processes at elite English univers... more The increasing use of aptitude tests as part of the admissions processes at elite English universities potentially has significant implications for fair access to these institutions. I attempt to isolate the impact of the introduction of one such test on the proportion of successful applicants by school type (as a proxy for socioeconomic status) and by gender using a difference in differences approach and administrative data from the University of Oxford. The introduction of the test coincided with the implementation of a guideline number of interviews per available place, significantly reducing the proportion of applicants offered an interview (by 14 percentage points) and, hence, increasing the proportion of interviewees offered places (by 3.6 percentage points). By gender, I find some evidence that these changes may be having differing effects at different stages of the admissions process, but not on each group's overall chances of securing an offer. I do not find any evidence that the policy has negative side effects on the chances of applicants from less advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds at any stage of the process.
DoQSS Working Paper 13-13, Institute of Education, University of London, Oct 2013
We show how young people’s expectations about application to university change during the teenage... more We show how young people’s expectations about application to university change during the teenage years, drawing on the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE). We reveal the pattern of change by family background (measured by parental education and family income), prior attainment at the end of primary school (measured by Key Stage 2 tests) and, critically, the combination of the two. We document the relationship between expectations about university application and the decision on whether to stay on in full-time education at 16. We point to the importance of schools in sustaining or changing expectations. We relate the expectations reported by the teenagers in LSYPE to their actual university application decisions by age 20 or 21. Expectations are high but not universally high. Family background gaps in expectations widen during the teenage years.
DoQSS Working Paper 12-13, Institute of Education, University of London, Dec 2012
The Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE) has the potential to be an important ne... more The Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE) has the potential to be an important new resource for addressing research questions regarding access to Higher Education. This paper outlines the data available in the LSYPE and assesses its quality, particularly relative to other datasets that have been used to address similar questions in the past. The paper finds many positive features of the data. These include data collection from parents (including much information on family background characteristics) and good family income measurement compared with many previous studies. The LSYPE also measures a greater depth of HE-related outcomes than some previous datasets, including application, entry, subject studied and institution attended. However, comparison with official statistics suggests that this may be undermined by a large overestimation of the proportion of young people who enter Higher Education (as much as ten percentage points) than we would see in a truly nationally representative sample. There is also some evidence of underreporting of family income. Nevertheless, the paper concludes that analysis of the LSYPE has the potential to shed new light on university access in England.
LLAKES Research Papers, 2014
There have been various ‘achievement gaps’ in England over the years – significant differences in... more There have been various ‘achievement gaps’ in England over the years – significant differences in school attainment by students from different socio-economic classes, different genders and different ethnic groups. Although Basil Bernstein, a leading English sociologist of education, argued many years ago that ‘education cannot compensate for society’, policy makers continue to believe that education and other social policies can help to equalise school performance and life chances between different social groups. This paper describes what progress was made in narrowing the socio-economic achievement gap in England under its New Labour government between 1997 and 2010 and assesses the research evidence about which of a whole array of national, local, institutional and ‘personalised’ interventions seem to have made a difference. It also discusses future prospects for closing the gap under the Coalition government of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats that was elected in England in 2010.
DoQSS Working Paper 12-01, Institute of Education, University of London, Mar 27, 2013
The association between household income and university entry is a matter of clear academic and p... more The association between household income and university entry is a matter of clear academic and policy interest. This paper sheds new light on the matter using the LSYPE, a recent longitudinal survey from England. While those in the top income quintile group are more likely than those in the bottom quintile group to attend university (66% vs. 24%), much of this gap is explained by earlier educational outcomes. The paper also examines admissions decisions in more detail, separating applying from attending. This analysis yields results suggesting most of the difference in participation rates is driven by the application decision. The attendance gap conditional on having applied is much smaller (85% vs. 68%) and closes completely when earlier educational outcomes are taken into account. Finally, the paper considers attendance at high quality Russell Group universities. By contrast with the main analysis, the Russell Group attendance gap persists even among those who attend university. The findings suggest policies aimed at reducing the university participation gap at point of entry face small rewards. More likely successful are policies aimed at closing the application gap, for example encouraging a wider cross-section of the population to apply and ensuring they have the necessary qualifications.
Book Chapters by Jake Anders
Closing the Achievement Gap from an International Perspective, 2014
There have been various ‘achievement gaps’ in England over the years—significant differences in s... more There have been various ‘achievement gaps’ in England over the years—significant differences in school attainment by students from different socioeconomic classes, different genders and different ethnic groups. Although Basil Bernstein, a leading English sociologist of education, argued many years ago that ‘education cannot compensate for society’, policy makers continue to believe that education and other social policies can help to equalise school performance and life chances between different social groups. This chapter describes what progress was made in narrowing the socioeconomic achievement gap in England under its New Labour government between 1997 and 2010 and assesses the research evidence on whether a wide array of national, local, institutional and ‘personalised’ interventions seem to have made a difference. It also discusses future prospects for closing the gap under the coalition government of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats that was elected in England in 2010. The chapter includes an explanation of the structure of the English schooling system.
Presentations by Jake Anders
A much larger proportion of English 14 year olds expect to apply to university than ultimately ma... more A much larger proportion of English 14 year olds expect to apply to university than ultimately make an application by age 21, but the proportion expecting to apply falls from age 14 onwards. In order to assess the role of socio-economic status in explaining changes in expectations, I apply duration modelling techniques to data from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England, analysing transitions in young people's expectations both from being `likely to apply' to being `unlikely to apply' and vice versa. I find that young people's socio-economic background has a significant association with changes in expectations, even once I control for prior academic attainment and other potentially confounding factors. This suggests more could usefully be done to maintain the educational expectations of academically able young people from less advantaged families. Furthermore, young people's backgrounds affect their responsiveness to new evidence on academic attainment at age 16, contributing to the socio-economic gradient in expectations.
A much larger proportion of English 14 year olds expect to apply to university than ultimately ma... more A much larger proportion of English 14 year olds expect to apply to university than ultimately make an application by age 21, but the proportion expecting to apply falls from age 14 onwards. In order to assess the role of socio-economic status in explaining changes in expectations, I apply duration modelling techniques to data from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England, analysing transitions in young people's expectations both from being `likely to apply' to being `unlikely to apply' and vice versa. I find that young people's socio-economic background has a significant association with changes in expectations, even once I control for prior academic attainment and other potentially confounding factors. This suggests more could usefully be done to maintain the educational expectations of academically able young people from less advantaged families. Furthermore, young people's backgrounds affect their responsiveness to new evidence on academic attainment at age 16, contributing to the socio-economic gradient in expectations.
The increasing use of aptitude tests as part of the admissions processes at elite English univers... more The increasing use of aptitude tests as part of the admissions processes at elite English universities potentially has significant implications for fair access to these institutions. I attempt to isolate the impact of the introduction of one such test on the proportion of successful applicants by school type (as a proxy for socioeconomic status) and by gender using a difference in differences approach and administrative data from the University of Oxford. The introduction of the test coincided with the implementation of a guideline number of interviews per available place, significantly reducing the proportion of applicants offered an interview (by 14 percentage points) and, hence, increasing the proportion of interviewees offered places (by 3.6 percentage points). By gender, I find some evidence that these changes may be having differing effects at different stages of the admissions process, but not on each group's overall chances of securing an offer. I do not find any evidence that the policy has negative side effects on the chances of applicants from less advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds at any stage of the process.differing effects at different stages of the admissions process, but not on each group's overall chances of securing an offer. I do not find any evidence that the policy has negative side effects on the chances of applicants from less advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds at any stage of the process.
The increasing use of aptitude tests as part of the admissions processes at elite English univers... more The increasing use of aptitude tests as part of the admissions processes at elite English universities potentially has significant implications for fair access to these institutions. I attempt to isolate the impact of the introduction of one such test on the proportion of successful applicants by school type (as a proxy for socioeconomic status) and by gender using a difference in differences approach and administrative data from the University of Oxford. The introduction of the test coincided with the implementation of a guideline number of interviews per available place, significantly reducing the proportion of applicants offered an interview (by 14 percentage points) and, hence, increasing the proportion of interviewees offered places (by 3.6 percentage points). By gender, I find some evidence that these changes may be having differing effects at different stages of the admissions process, but not on each group's overall chances of securing an offer. I do not find any evidence that the policy has negative side effects on the chances of applicants from less advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds at any stage of the process.
The increasing use of aptitude tests as part of the admissions processes at elite English univers... more The increasing use of aptitude tests as part of the admissions processes at elite English universities potentially has significant implications for fair access to these institutions. I attempt to isolate the impact of the introduction of one such test on the proportion of successful applicants by school type (as a proxy for socioeconomic status) and by gender using a difference in differences approach and administrative data from the University of Oxford. The introduction of the test coincided with the implementation of a guideline number of interviews per available place, significantly reducing the proportion of applicants offered an interview (by 14 percentage points) and, hence, increasing the proportion of interviewees offered places (by 3.6 percentage points). By gender, I find some evidence that these changes may be having differing effects at different stages of the admissions process, but not on each group's overall chances of securing an offer. I do not find any evidence that the policy has negative side effects on the chances of applicants from less advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds at any stage of the process.
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Journal Articles by Jake Anders
Working Papers by Jake Anders
Book Chapters by Jake Anders
Presentations by Jake Anders