This paper looks at an important but understudied indicator of party change – the turnover of ele... more This paper looks at an important but understudied indicator of party change – the turnover of electoral candidates. We analyse 170,000 candidates in 55 elections in Central and Eastern Europe – a region with volatile political parties and party systems. We develop a measure of weighted candidate novelty (WCN) that takes into account the list placement of candidates and party size. There are significant differences in the levels of WCN between countries but at best limited evidence of more stability over time. In the second part of the paper, we contrast the findings on electoral candidate turnover to volatility scores used in previous studies. WCN is correlated to electoral volatility, but there are significant outliers. We contend that these are produced by parties that are: (a) new, but only moderately novel in terms of candidates, (b) old but have experienced significant internal change, resulting in high candidate turnover, and (c) neither genuinely old nor genuinely new. The la...
In this chapter, we analyze the speechmaking among Estonian MPs between 2011 and 2019. We find th... more In this chapter, we analyze the speechmaking among Estonian MPs between 2011 and 2019. We find that those holding parliamentary office in committees and party groups enjoy privileged floor access and are more active speakers than regular MPs. Opposition backbenchers, enjoying more freedom or eager to make their mark, participate more actively in parliamentary debates than their governing party colleagues. We also find that members of the coveted EU Affairs Committee, as well as MPs from smaller parties and those with a higher personal electoral appeal (based on preference votes), speak more actively. The impact of gender, age, and legislative experience on speech activism is less clear.
While parties in many new democracies frequently split, merge, change labels, and make and break ... more While parties in many new democracies frequently split, merge, change labels, and make and break electoral alliances, comparative systematic research on how these changes are related to each other is limited. Literature on political parties often treats di↵erent forms of party change as manifestations of a singular and single-dimensional phenomenon of party instability. This study examines the dimensionality of party structural change in 11 countries in Central and Eastern Europe. We apply Multiple Correspondence Analysis to an original dataset that di↵erentiates between five types of party structural change and examines 780 party-electoral term dyads. Our findings contradict the idea of party structural change as a uni-dimensional phenomenon. Instead we distinguish between between two types of change: temporary change (entry to and exit from electoral coalitions and changes in electoral labels) and permanent change (splits and mergers). A more fine-grained classification also discerns between change that brings about party system aggregation and fragmentation. These findings imply that di↵erent types of party structural change can not be accounted for by the same factors.
All estimates of party system change rely on coding decisions regarding the categorization of par... more All estimates of party system change rely on coding decisions regarding the categorization of parties as old or new. However, such dichotomous coding is insensitive to links between new parties and previously existing ones or extensive internal change in old parties. This paper looks at an important but so far understudied indicator of internal party change-the turnover of electoral candidates. Turnover is analysed in 55 elections in Central and Eastern Europe-a region with high levels of internal change in established parties and frequent new parties with links to established ones. We contrast the findings on electoral candidate turnover to volatility scores reported in previous studies. We also identify important cases of: (a) new parties that are only moderately novel, (b) old parties that underwent a significant internal change and (c) parties that were neither old nor new. The last category of partially novel parties pose most acute problems for the indices of party system change. * The research for this paper has been partly been funded by the EU's FP7 ANTICORRP project.
The party systems of Central and Eastern Europe are generally viewed as being less stable than th... more The party systems of Central and Eastern Europe are generally viewed as being less stable than those in Western Europe, with a greater level of volatility in terms of the parties that compete in successive elections. But how has this picture changed since 1990? Using a new dataset covering 11 countries, Raimondas Ibenskas and Allan Sikk outline some of the key factors that have underpinned splits and mergers between different parties within the region.
The paper addresses the question on the impact of party financing regulations on party systems in... more The paper addresses the question on the impact of party financing regulations on party systems in the post-communist Central and Eastern European democracies. It proposes a formal theoretical model of party financing regime restrictiveness vis-a-vis new political parties and analyses the Estonian and Latvian experience with new parties in the light of the countries’ party financing regimes. Estonian system of advanced public financing has inhibited the success of new actors better than in Latvia, where the parties receive no subsidies from state budget. However, the last elections saw significant success of new parties (Res Publica and New Era) in both countries. The paper analyses how new parties have been operating in the context of party financing regimes, relying on specific combinations of resources in achieving success. Finally, the potential effects of recent amendments in party financing regulations of regulations will be considered.
This study develops and tests theoretical formulas for linking country size and party system char... more This study develops and tests theoretical formulas for linking country size and party system characteristics. For countries using one-seat electoral districts or nationwide districts, the averages of the largest seat-share, effective number of assem-bly parties and mean duration of cabinets can be predicted based solely on population. For countries allocating seats by PR in multi-seat districts, the averages of these characteristics can be predicted based on population and district magnitude. We show that first-past-the-post countries of less than one million tend to have highly dominant largest parties and one-and-a-half party assemblies, rather than a balance of two parties. For larger countries, and PR countries of any size, population is not destiny, as far as party system is concerned.
A key feature of Estonia's performance during the COVID-19 crisis has been sectoral unevennes... more A key feature of Estonia's performance during the COVID-19 crisis has been sectoral unevenness. This has mainly been caused by two factors: the varying maturity of institutional structures and paradigmatic policy change.
This paper looks at an important but understudied indicator of party change – the turnover of ele... more This paper looks at an important but understudied indicator of party change – the turnover of electoral candidates. We analyse 170,000 candidates in 55 elections in Central and Eastern Europe – a region with volatile political parties and party systems. We develop a measure of weighted candidate novelty (WCN) that takes into account the list placement of candidates and party size. There are significant differences in the levels of WCN between countries but at best limited evidence of more stability over time. In the second part of the paper, we contrast the findings on electoral candidate turnover to volatility scores used in previous studies. WCN is correlated to electoral volatility, but there are significant outliers. We contend that these are produced by parties that are: (a) new, but only moderately novel in terms of candidates, (b) old but have experienced significant internal change, resulting in high candidate turnover, and (c) neither genuinely old nor genuinely new. The la...
In this chapter, we analyze the speechmaking among Estonian MPs between 2011 and 2019. We find th... more In this chapter, we analyze the speechmaking among Estonian MPs between 2011 and 2019. We find that those holding parliamentary office in committees and party groups enjoy privileged floor access and are more active speakers than regular MPs. Opposition backbenchers, enjoying more freedom or eager to make their mark, participate more actively in parliamentary debates than their governing party colleagues. We also find that members of the coveted EU Affairs Committee, as well as MPs from smaller parties and those with a higher personal electoral appeal (based on preference votes), speak more actively. The impact of gender, age, and legislative experience on speech activism is less clear.
While parties in many new democracies frequently split, merge, change labels, and make and break ... more While parties in many new democracies frequently split, merge, change labels, and make and break electoral alliances, comparative systematic research on how these changes are related to each other is limited. Literature on political parties often treats di↵erent forms of party change as manifestations of a singular and single-dimensional phenomenon of party instability. This study examines the dimensionality of party structural change in 11 countries in Central and Eastern Europe. We apply Multiple Correspondence Analysis to an original dataset that di↵erentiates between five types of party structural change and examines 780 party-electoral term dyads. Our findings contradict the idea of party structural change as a uni-dimensional phenomenon. Instead we distinguish between between two types of change: temporary change (entry to and exit from electoral coalitions and changes in electoral labels) and permanent change (splits and mergers). A more fine-grained classification also discerns between change that brings about party system aggregation and fragmentation. These findings imply that di↵erent types of party structural change can not be accounted for by the same factors.
All estimates of party system change rely on coding decisions regarding the categorization of par... more All estimates of party system change rely on coding decisions regarding the categorization of parties as old or new. However, such dichotomous coding is insensitive to links between new parties and previously existing ones or extensive internal change in old parties. This paper looks at an important but so far understudied indicator of internal party change-the turnover of electoral candidates. Turnover is analysed in 55 elections in Central and Eastern Europe-a region with high levels of internal change in established parties and frequent new parties with links to established ones. We contrast the findings on electoral candidate turnover to volatility scores reported in previous studies. We also identify important cases of: (a) new parties that are only moderately novel, (b) old parties that underwent a significant internal change and (c) parties that were neither old nor new. The last category of partially novel parties pose most acute problems for the indices of party system change. * The research for this paper has been partly been funded by the EU's FP7 ANTICORRP project.
The party systems of Central and Eastern Europe are generally viewed as being less stable than th... more The party systems of Central and Eastern Europe are generally viewed as being less stable than those in Western Europe, with a greater level of volatility in terms of the parties that compete in successive elections. But how has this picture changed since 1990? Using a new dataset covering 11 countries, Raimondas Ibenskas and Allan Sikk outline some of the key factors that have underpinned splits and mergers between different parties within the region.
The paper addresses the question on the impact of party financing regulations on party systems in... more The paper addresses the question on the impact of party financing regulations on party systems in the post-communist Central and Eastern European democracies. It proposes a formal theoretical model of party financing regime restrictiveness vis-a-vis new political parties and analyses the Estonian and Latvian experience with new parties in the light of the countries’ party financing regimes. Estonian system of advanced public financing has inhibited the success of new actors better than in Latvia, where the parties receive no subsidies from state budget. However, the last elections saw significant success of new parties (Res Publica and New Era) in both countries. The paper analyses how new parties have been operating in the context of party financing regimes, relying on specific combinations of resources in achieving success. Finally, the potential effects of recent amendments in party financing regulations of regulations will be considered.
This study develops and tests theoretical formulas for linking country size and party system char... more This study develops and tests theoretical formulas for linking country size and party system characteristics. For countries using one-seat electoral districts or nationwide districts, the averages of the largest seat-share, effective number of assem-bly parties and mean duration of cabinets can be predicted based solely on population. For countries allocating seats by PR in multi-seat districts, the averages of these characteristics can be predicted based on population and district magnitude. We show that first-past-the-post countries of less than one million tend to have highly dominant largest parties and one-and-a-half party assemblies, rather than a balance of two parties. For larger countries, and PR countries of any size, population is not destiny, as far as party system is concerned.
A key feature of Estonia's performance during the COVID-19 crisis has been sectoral unevennes... more A key feature of Estonia's performance during the COVID-19 crisis has been sectoral unevenness. This has mainly been caused by two factors: the varying maturity of institutional structures and paradigmatic policy change.
The impact of state size on macroeconomics, political economy and international politics is well ... more The impact of state size on macroeconomics, political economy and international politics is well established in academic literature. When it comes to domestic politics, the received wisdom is that nearly all contemporary democracies are too big to benefit from the advantages assigned to small political communities, following the conclusion from Dahl and Tufte’s seminal Size and Democracy (1973). However, there is evidence on the impact of country size on the size of parliaments, democratic endurance, civil conflict, electoral turnout and party membership levels. Still, much of the research is exploratory in nature, and the mechanisms by which state size affects political variables remain understudied. Anckar (2002) is among the few to break the mould, as he argues that smaller country size means smaller distances between elites and citizens and, as a result, interest articulation is filtered through fewer intervening structures and agents. This chapter analyses the working of such intermediate institutions in the Baltic states. More specifically, we look at the members of the European Parliament (MEPs) by analysing patterns of representation in the committees and political groups of the European Parliament and on national party boards.
Western Europe has recently experienced the emergence of successful new parties, but while single... more Western Europe has recently experienced the emergence of successful new parties, but while single parties or countries have been extensively studied, insufficient attention has been devoted to this phenomenon from a comparative and long-term perspective. By relying on an original data set covering 20 countries and 344 parliamentary elections, this article presents the first analysis of West European 'genuinely new parties' (GNPs) across time, countries and party families. We hypothesize that the parties differ not only in terms of their short-and long-term success but have a range of distinct development paths. Through a latent growth model, we provide a classification of GNPs in terms of their breakthrough and initial performance. According to the specific trajectory followed by new parties in the first five elections they contest, the model suggests five different classes of new parties in Western Europe: 'explosive', 'meteoric', 'contender', 'flat' and 'flop'. The article discusses the implications of these findings also regarding the ability of the model to produce estimates and predictions about the future electoral performances of GNPs.
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Papers by Allan Sikk