Papers by Michael Mousseau
Four Ways We Know the Democratic Peace Correlation Does Not Exist in the State of Knowledge
Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
Multiple studies have shown that when advanced-market “contract-intensive” economy is considered ... more Multiple studies have shown that when advanced-market “contract-intensive” economy is considered in a regression of fatal militarized interstate disputes, crises, or wars, the democratic peace correlation, the observed dearth of militarized conflict between democratic nations, becomes near zero and insignificant. Defenders of the existence of a correlation of democracy with peace claim these studies contain multiple errors. This article examines the state of evidence behind all claims in this debate. Four crucial facts are identified: (1) There is no report in print that shows democracy significant in a regression of fatal disputes controlling for contractualist economy that is unencumbered with controversial practices; (2) Every empirical defense of democracy has been rebutted, and the rebuttals remain uncontested; (3) There is no democratic peace in the nineteenth century, when there were no contractualist dyads but were democratic dyads; and (4) New analyses with revised direct d...
The End of War: How a Robust Marketplace and Liberal Hegemony Are Leading to Perpetual World Peace
International Security
Permanent world peace is beginning to emerge. States with developed market-oriented economies hav... more Permanent world peace is beginning to emerge. States with developed market-oriented economies have foremost interests in the principle of self-determination of all states as the foundation for a robust global marketplace. War among these states, even making preparations for war, is not possible, because they are in a natural alliance to preserve and protect the global order. Among other states, weaker powers, fearing those that are stronger, tend to bandwagon with the relatively benign market-oriented powers. The result is a powerful liberal global hierarchy that is unwittingly, but systematically, buttressing states' embrace of market norms and values, moving the world toward perpetual peace. Analysis of voting preferences of members of the United Nations General Assembly from 1946 to 2010 corroborates the influence of the liberal global hierarchy: states with weak internal markets tend to disagree with the foreign policy preferences of the largest market power (i.e., the Unite...
How the Contractualist Peace Overtook the Democratic Peace
Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics
The democratic peace—the absence of war between democratic nations—shook the field of Internation... more The democratic peace—the absence of war between democratic nations—shook the field of International Relations when it emerged as a widely accepted true fact roughly a quarter-century ago. In the context of the rapid spread of democracy that coincided with the end of the Cold War, the promise was vast: A world of democracies would be a world in peace. The democratic peace had a crucial weakness, however: a convincing explanation. While many potential explanations were developed, only a few produced supportive evidence, and not one yielded evidence supportive enough to render it widely convincing.Into this void emerged the contractualist peace—the dearth of militarized conflict between nations with advanced market-oriented economies. Unlike the democratic peace, the contractualist peace was not discovered after the fact but predicted ex ante. Economic norms theory predicts societies that are market oriented to embrace democracy as the best means to ensure their state’s impartiality in...
Confrontation in West and South Asia Book Review: Falling Terrorism and Rising Conflicts: The Afghan Contribution to Polarization and
Tansley review n°71 : effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on woody plants
New Phytologist, 1994
The Sources of Terrorism
Http Dx Doi Org 10 1162 016228803322762008, Mar 29, 2006
How the Wealth of Nations Conditions the Liberal Peace
Over the past decade the liberal peace—the finding that democracy and economic interdependence co... more Over the past decade the liberal peace—the finding that democracy and economic interdependence contribute to peace among nations—has emerged as one of the strongest and most important results in the scientific study of international relations. Recent research indicates, however, that the pacific benefits of democracy and interdependence may not be unconditional but contingent upon the wealth of nations. We assess the independent and conditional influences of democracy, interdependence and economic development on the likelihood of fatal militarized disputes over the period 1885 to 1992. Economically important trade has an independent, substantively important pacifying effect, but the conflict-reducing effect of democracy depends on the level of economic development. If the less developed state in a dyad has a per capita GDP below 1400USD, joint democracy is not a significant force for peace. Our results indicate that the vast majority of past research on the democratic peace is imperfectly specified because the character of states' political institutions alone does not account for the likelihood of military conflict. To advance further the cause of peace, we must encourage increased global trade and development along with democratic institutions.
Market Civilization and Its Clash with Terror
Iwsec, 1999
... Luis Roniger and Ayþe Güneþ-Ayata, eds., Democracy, Clientelism, and Civil Society (Boulder, ... more ... Luis Roniger and Ayþe Güneþ-Ayata, eds., Democracy, Clientelism, and Civil Society (Boulder, Colo ... in clientalist economies, therefore, in market economies, strangers and even enemies can cooperate ... Sweden and the United States.23 The market economy and its liberal belief ...
Book Review: Falling Terrorism and Rising Conflicts: The Afghan Contribution to Polarization and Confrontation in West and South Asia
Comp Polit Stud, 2005
Globalization, Markets, and Democracy
Capitalism, Democracy, and War
... This means the capitalist powers are best advised to go back to the policies the Truman Admin... more ... This means the capitalist powers are best advised to go back to the policies the Truman Administration adopted for post-war Europe: giving most citizens a stake in capitalism by making opportunities in the market widely available. ... REFERENCES Blalock, Hubert M. Jr. 1979. ...
How Market Culture Alleviates Ethnic Tensions: Theory and Evidence
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The Evolution of Strategy: Thinking of War from Antiquity to the Present The Evolution of Strategy: Thinking of War from Antiquity to the Present. By Heuser. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010. 594p. $99.00 cloth, $37.99 paper
Perspectives on Politics, 2012
Some Systemic Roots of The Democratic Peace
International Studies Review, 2007
An Economic Limitation to the Zone of Democratic Peace and Cooperation
International Interactions, 2002
... In brief, cultural materialist ontology highlights three key aspects of human exist-ence: the... more ... In brief, cultural materialist ontology highlights three key aspects of human exist-ence: the infrastructure (material economy), the structure (institutions), and super-structure (culture) (Harris, 1979; Murphy and Margolis, 1995, p. 2). Cultural mate-rialists assert that there are ...
How the Evolution of Markets Reduces the Risk of Civil War
Correspondence: The Sources of Terrorism
What Do We Know about War?
What Do We Know about War? reviews the research on causes of war and the conditions of peace over... more What Do We Know about War? reviews the research on causes of war and the conditions of peace over the past forty-five years. Leading scholars explore the critical roles of territorial disputes, alliances, arms races, rivalry, and nuclear weapons in bringing about war as well as the factors promoting peace, including democracy, norms, stable borders, and capitalist economies. Considering what has been learned about the causes of war and the conditions of peace in the ten years since the publication of the first edition, this invaluable text offers ...
How the wealth of nations conditions the liberal peace
Over the past decade the liberal peace—the finding that democracy and economic interdependence co... more Over the past decade the liberal peace—the finding that democracy and economic interdependence contribute to peace among nations—has emerged as one of the strongest and most important results in the scientific study of international relations. Recent research indicates, however, that the pacific benefits of democracy and interdependence may not be unconditional but contingent upon the wealth of nations. We assess the independent and conditional influences of democracy, interdependence and economic development on the likelihood of fatal militarized disputes over the period 1885 to 1992. Economically important trade has an independent, substantively important pacifying effect, but the conflict-reducing effect of democracy depends on the level of economic development. If the less developed state in a dyad has a per capita GDP below 1400USD, joint democracy is not a significant force for peace. Our results indicate that the vast majority of past research on the democratic peace is imperfectly specified because the character of states' political institutions alone does not account for the likelihood of military conflict. To advance further the cause of peace, we must encourage increased global trade and development along with democratic institutions.
Several studies have suggested the possibility of reverse causation in the 'democratic peace' rel... more Several studies have suggested the possibility of reverse causation in the 'democratic peace' relationship: that the well-known extreme rarity of wars between democratic nations may be partially or wholly explained by a negative impact of war on democracy. Three kinds of war-on-regime effects are discussed. Anterior effects are regime changes that occur in preparation for wars; concurrent effects are those that occur during the course of a war; and posterior effects are regime changes that occur after a war concludes. Because studies have shown that democratic nations are rarely, if ever, on opposite sides in wars at their start, it is argued that reversed causation may affect the presence of causation from democracy to peace only if nations tend to become more autocratic as they prepare for impending wars. This proposition is examined with the observation of war events involving geographic neighbors or major powers, worldwide, from 1816 to 1992. With interrupted time-series analysis, it is found that nations are about as likely to become more institutionally autocratic as they are to become more democratic in the periods before the onset of wars. Moreover, this pattern holds even for the smaller subset of nations estimated to be democratic in the periods before major wars. These results indicate that studies of regime type and war participation have not been underspecified due to possible reverse causation before the onset of wars, and thus support the notion that the direction of causation in the democracy and war relationship is unidirectional from democracy to peace.
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Papers by Michael Mousseau