Papers by Francisco Gallego
Economia Chilena
El sobresaliente desempeño macroeconómico que Chile ha tenido desde finales de los ochenta hasta ... more El sobresaliente desempeño macroeconómico que Chile ha tenido desde finales de los ochenta hasta los noventa, ha sido considerado como un exitoso ejemplo del uso de políticas de mercado, como se cita en numerosos estudios (véase Bosworth, Dornbusch y Labán, 1994. Recientemente, una de las áreas que ha recibido gran atención es el desarrollo del sector financiero (véase Eyzaguirre y Lefort, 1999). Este énfasis es justificado en consideración al notable crecimiento de la intermediación bancaria y la capitalización en el mercado accionario desde mediados de la década de los ochenta, lo que ha situado a Chile como el líder financiero de Latinoamérica una década después. En 1995, la razón de créditos colocados por bancos comerciales con respecto al PIB en Chile fue de 49%, casi 50% más alta que la de Brasil, el segundo país de la región en este ámbito. Para el mismo año, la capitalización del mercado accionario como porcentaje del PIB llegó a 105% en Chile, al menos tres veces mayor que la de cualquier otro país de Latinoamérica (véase Loayza y Palacios, 1997).
This paper develops a multivariate analysis in order to study the determinants of the household s... more This paper develops a multivariate analysis in order to study the determinants of the household saving rate. For this purpose, the paper uses two microeconomic databases for 1988 and 1996-1997. The main results of the paper support the conventional explanations of saving rates: more than 60% of the variation of saving rates explained by the estimated model is related to
2 Note que la recta en el gráfico 2 muestra que la media de la tasa de crecimiento se encuentra n... more 2 Note que la recta en el gráfico 2 muestra que la media de la tasa de crecimiento se encuentra negativamente correlacionada con su variabilidad. Este punto se analiza con mayor detalle en .
La tasa de interés de política monetaria real (TPMR) del Banco Central de Chile ha disminuido des... more La tasa de interés de política monetaria real (TPMR) del Banco Central de Chile ha disminuido desde un valor promedio de 6.8% en el período 1995-1997 a valores por debajo de 2% (considerando expectativas de inflación de 3% anual) en la actualidad. Sin embargo, evaluar cuánto más expansiva es la política monetaria no es claro, ya que es posible que la tasa de interés neutral o de equilibrio haya variado. Esta nota analiza este tema, poniendo énfasis en una discusión conceptual sobre la tasa de interés real neutral para Chile y una serie de metodologías para medirla.
• Literature on executive compensation: -Agency (Murphy 1999, survey): pay-for-performance is dri... more • Literature on executive compensation: -Agency (Murphy 1999, survey): pay-for-performance is driven by direct stock ownership and options, so probably not relevant for our sample. This is for a good reason: principals are not absent in these organizations; close monitoring.
The objectives of this paper are, first, to describe the developments in Chilean financial market... more The objectives of this paper are, first, to describe the developments in Chilean financial markets at the macroeconomic level and, then, to examine their effects at the level of firms. After reviewing the main government policies towards financial markets in the last three decades, the paper describes the remarkable changes and progress in the banking sector and in various types of capital markets (bond, stock, pension and insurance markets) during the same period. This is done by evaluating changes in financial markets size, activity, and efficiency. Second, the paper analyzes the changes in both the access to financial markets and the financing (balance-sheet) decisions in a sample of Chilean firms. The sample consists of 79 firms that are quoted in the stock market and for which annual balance sheet data for the period 1985-1995 are available and complete. The paper estimates and tests econometrically three issues. The first is whether the firms' reliance on internal funds for investment has decreased in the more financially open period of the 1990s relative to the 1980s and, thus, whether investment has been more responsive to changes in the q-value of the firm. The second examines whether financial liberalization and the development of the banking, stock and bond markets at the aggregate level have affected the importance of debt relative to equity and the maturity of debt in the balance sheet of firms. The third studies the extent to which firm-specific and aggregate financial market developments have impacted on firm growth, measured by the percentage increase in operational revenues. In general, we conclude that financial developments at the macro level have indeed had an impact on the firms' access to capital markets, their financial structure, and their rate of growth.
Sudden stops and international crises are a main feature of developing countries in the last 25 y... more Sudden stops and international crises are a main feature of developing countries in the last 25 years. While their aggregate costs are well known, the microeconomic channels throught which they work have yet to be explored. In this paper we study their e¤ects on micro variables related to labor ows using sectoral panel data for 4 Latin American countries. We …nd that sudden stops are associated with lower job creation and increased job destruction. We also document that the impact of sudden stops on labor ows are hetero-geneous depending on (i) country-speci…c variables, such as the extent of labor market regulations, and (ii) sector-speci…c variables, such as the dependence of the sector to external …nance. Both sets of factors seem to a¤ect di¤erent margins of adjustment, with labor market regulation a¤ecting mostly existing …rms while …nancial frictions being more relevant for new …rms.
Una de las características empíricas centrales de los regímenes cambiarios de las economías emerg... more Una de las características empíricas centrales de los regímenes cambiarios de las economías emergentes es el llamado ¿miedo a flotar¿. Sin embargo, mientras algunos ven el miedo a flotar como la respuesta monetaria óptima ex post a los shocks externos, pues protege los balances contables y evita brotes inflacionarios, otros argumentan que, desde una perspectiva ex ante, tal política conduce a un subaseguramiento del sector privado contra paradas repentinas de capitales externos. Un compromiso de la autoridad a dejar flotar el tipo de cambio durante las crisis aumentaría el incentivo a que los privados conservaran la liquidez internacional. Este artículo desarrolla un modelo de régimen cambiario óptimo cuando hay preocupaciones tanto ex ante como ex post. Dado que el miedo a flotar solo reduce el seguro durante potenciales paradas repentinas, revisamos los datos sobre regímenes cambiarios en busca de evidencia que pruebe que la flexibilidad cambiaria es condicional al estado de la ec...
We use the historical experience of former colonies to shed light on current debates about the ef... more We use the historical experience of former colonies to shed light on current debates about the effects of school competition on student outcomes. Using cross- country data for about 70 countries and regional data for about 180 African provinces, we show that competition between Protestant and Catholic missionaries increased schooling levels in former colonies. Both our qualitative and quantitative evidence implies that the number of Protestant missionaries increased schooling levels in the past as well as in the present in countries with a Catholic state, and that the impact of Protestant and Catholic missionaries on educational outcomes was similar when missionaries of both denominations faced the same legal and institutional treatment. These results contrast with traditional explanations em- phasizing the role of missionaries' identity. We link our results to differences in the way colonial powers and governments regulated religious and educational markets: in Protestant colon...
This dissertation consists of four essays on human capital, institutions, and incentives. In the ... more This dissertation consists of four essays on human capital, institutions, and incentives. In the first essay, I investigate the effects of voucher-school competition on educational outcomes in Chile. I present a theoretical model that produces three empirical predictions: voucher-school competition 1) improves student outcomes; 2) may put stronger pressure on public schools to increase quality; and 3) has weaker effects when public school budget constraints are softer. I exploit the interaction of the number of Catholic priests and the institution of the voucher system as a potentially exogenous determinant of voucher school entry. Using this instrument, I confirm the main predictions of my theoretical model. In the second essay, I show that cross-country differences in schooling persist to the present because colonial factors influence the extent of institutional variables, such as democracy and political decentralization. By using the number of native cultures before colonization ...
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Papers by Francisco Gallego