Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, a... more Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectors and scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the view that the societal transitions research field would benefit from the further maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper shows how modelling can enhance the understanding of and support stakeholders to steer societal transitions. It discusses the benefits modelling provides for studying large societal systems and elaborates on different ways models can be used for transitions studies. Two model applications are presented in some detail to illustrate the benefits. Then, limitations of modelling societal transitions are discussed, which leads to an agenda for future activities: (1) better cooperation in the development of dynamic models, (2) stronger interaction with other transition scholars and stakeholders, and (3) use of additional modelling approaches that we think are relevant to and largely unexplored in transitions studies.
Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 2015
Please cite this article in press as: Halbe, J., et al., Lessons for model use in transition rese... more Please cite this article in press as: Halbe, J., et al., Lessons for model use in transition research: A survey and comparison with other research areas. Environ. Innovation Soc. Transitions (2014), http://dx.
An important type of decisionmaking problem is decisionmaking under uncertainty. Frequently, mode... more An important type of decisionmaking problem is decisionmaking under uncertainty. Frequently, model-based decision support is used to inform decisionmaking by predicting what would happen under a variety of decisions, and select the best course of action given what would happen. However, for many reasons this approach is problematic. Among others, this approach can result in poor decisions if uncertainty affects our ability to adequately model the system of interest, parameterize the model, and agree on the evaluation of outcomes. Such decisionmaking problems are sometimes referred to as decisionmaking under deep uncertainty. Available modeling techniques struggle to offer useful decision support for such decisionmaking problems. In this paper, we argue that this problem can be overcome by using the available techniques in an exploratory way. We illustrate this argument with three short cases.
Megaprojects are large, costly, complex infrastructure projects. To assess the financial viabilit... more Megaprojects are large, costly, complex infrastructure projects. To assess the financial viability of a megaproject, a cost–benefit analysis (CBA) is usually performed; theresults depend upon the accuracy of the cost estimations and the predictive models used to forecast future demand for the use of the infrastructure. The outcomes of the models are very vulnerable to unexpected events. As a result, the CBA may become unreliable and give an unrealistic picture of the financial viability of a project. An alternative way of policy making that tries to take uncertainty into account is the dynamic adaptive policy (DAP) approach. This approach involves a systematic method for designing and implementing a policy over time that is based on a clear set of constraints and objectives and that involves monitoring the environment, gathering information, and adjusting and readjusting to new circumstances. The efficacy of this type of policy making has already been shown, but whether DAP leads to...
This document is intended to provide an overview of the wide variety of terms and concepts that a... more This document is intended to provide an overview of the wide variety of terms and concepts that are being used when discussing uncertainty. This document has been written in response to an expressed need by the Knowledge for Climate theme 2 consortium to get some clarity on the terminology that is being used when discussing uncertainty in various scientific and
Recent contextual developments constitute a backdrop of change for the Dutch electricity system. ... more Recent contextual developments constitute a backdrop of change for the Dutch electricity system. Institutional change driven by liberalization, changing economic competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies, and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments. This paper explores plausible transition trajectories in the face of these developments given technological uncertainty about investment and operating costs,
In this paper we address the role of reflective ski lls in the development and training of new Sy... more In this paper we address the role of reflective ski lls in the development and training of new System Dynamics modelers at the tertiary education level. Over the last two years students at the Delft University of Technology have written a reflective essay on their experiences with the conceptualization, formulation , validation and use of a System Dynamics model in
... 56, Issues 1-3, pp. 141-151. 17. Craig Larman, Applying UML and Patterns: An Introduction to ... more ... 56, Issues 1-3, pp. 141-151. 17. Craig Larman, Applying UML and Patterns: An Introduction to Object-Oriented Analysis and Design and Iterative Development (3rd Edition), Prentice Hall PTR, Upper Saddle River, NJ, 2004. 18. Evans, E. (2004). Domain-Driven Design. ...
Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) is an approach that uses computational experiments to ana... more Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) is an approach that uses computational experiments to analyze complex and uncertain issues. It has been developed mainly for model-based decision support. This paper investigates the extent to which EMA is a promising approach for future oriented technology analysis (FTA). We report on three applications of EMA, using different modeling approaches, in three different technical domains. In the first case, EMA is combined with System Dynamics (SD) to study plausible dynamics for mineral and metal scarcity. The main purpose of this combination of EMA and SD is to gain insight into what kinds of surprising dynamics can occur given a variety of uncertainties and a basic understanding of the system. In the second case, EMA is combined with a hybrid model for airport performance calculations to develop an adaptive strategic plan. This case shows how one can iteratively improve a strategic plan through the identification of plausible external conditions that would cause the plan to perform poorly. In the final case, EMA is combined with an agent-based model to study transition dynamics in the electricity sector and identify crucial factors that positively and negatively affect a transition towards more sustainable functioning of the electricity sector. This paper concludes that EMA is useful for generating foresights and studying systemic and structural transformations despite the presence of a plethora of uncertainties, and for designing robust policies and plans, which are key activities of FTA.
PICMET '08 - 2008 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering & Technology, 2008
In this paper we examine effective representations of knowledge for the purposes of management of... more In this paper we examine effective representations of knowledge for the purposes of management of engineering and technology. Specifically, given the immense volume of data available about scientific outputs, it is highly necessary to condense or abstract this information for management use. This paper considers the utility of such representations in the management of technology. We ask further whether a
PICMET '08 - 2008 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering & Technology, 2008
Uncertainty is inherent in modern day strategic planning. However, there is little consensus in h... more Uncertainty is inherent in modern day strategic planning. However, there is little consensus in how to define uncertainty, what its characteristics are, and how we should relate these characteristics to the appropriate treatment or management of uncertainty. One way of identifying the different meanings of uncertainty and the techniques used for treating it, is to survey the usage of the term uncertainty and identify the techniques that are used in the context of this usage. Underlying this are two hypotheses. First, the semantic hypothesis: a consistently different usage of words must indicate meaningful differences in definition. Second, names of methods, tools, and techniques normally consist of more than one word. Using a tech mining approach, this paper analyzes methods, tools, and techniques discussed by scientists in the context of different usages of the word uncertainty. Several distinct meanings of uncertainty, as encountered in the scientific literature, are identified and explored in more depth in order to identify the associated methods, tools and techniques. We identify the leading methods for the analysis and management of uncertainty. We examine the relationship between the nature of uncertainty and the types of methods selected by scientists. Our results can be used by practitioners in selecting appropriate methods given the nature of the uncertainties encountered.
Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, a... more Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectors and scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the view that the societal transitions research field would benefit from the further maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper shows how modelling can enhance the understanding of and support stakeholders to steer societal transitions. It discusses the benefits modelling provides for studying large societal systems and elaborates on different ways models can be used for transitions studies. Two model applications are presented in some detail to illustrate the benefits. Then, limitations of modelling societal transitions are discussed, which leads to an agenda for future activities: (1) better cooperation in the development of dynamic models, (2) stronger interaction with other transition scholars and stakeholders, and (3) use of additional modelling approaches that we think are relevant to and largely unexplored in transitions studies.
Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 2015
Please cite this article in press as: Halbe, J., et al., Lessons for model use in transition rese... more Please cite this article in press as: Halbe, J., et al., Lessons for model use in transition research: A survey and comparison with other research areas. Environ. Innovation Soc. Transitions (2014), http://dx.
An important type of decisionmaking problem is decisionmaking under uncertainty. Frequently, mode... more An important type of decisionmaking problem is decisionmaking under uncertainty. Frequently, model-based decision support is used to inform decisionmaking by predicting what would happen under a variety of decisions, and select the best course of action given what would happen. However, for many reasons this approach is problematic. Among others, this approach can result in poor decisions if uncertainty affects our ability to adequately model the system of interest, parameterize the model, and agree on the evaluation of outcomes. Such decisionmaking problems are sometimes referred to as decisionmaking under deep uncertainty. Available modeling techniques struggle to offer useful decision support for such decisionmaking problems. In this paper, we argue that this problem can be overcome by using the available techniques in an exploratory way. We illustrate this argument with three short cases.
Megaprojects are large, costly, complex infrastructure projects. To assess the financial viabilit... more Megaprojects are large, costly, complex infrastructure projects. To assess the financial viability of a megaproject, a cost–benefit analysis (CBA) is usually performed; theresults depend upon the accuracy of the cost estimations and the predictive models used to forecast future demand for the use of the infrastructure. The outcomes of the models are very vulnerable to unexpected events. As a result, the CBA may become unreliable and give an unrealistic picture of the financial viability of a project. An alternative way of policy making that tries to take uncertainty into account is the dynamic adaptive policy (DAP) approach. This approach involves a systematic method for designing and implementing a policy over time that is based on a clear set of constraints and objectives and that involves monitoring the environment, gathering information, and adjusting and readjusting to new circumstances. The efficacy of this type of policy making has already been shown, but whether DAP leads to...
This document is intended to provide an overview of the wide variety of terms and concepts that a... more This document is intended to provide an overview of the wide variety of terms and concepts that are being used when discussing uncertainty. This document has been written in response to an expressed need by the Knowledge for Climate theme 2 consortium to get some clarity on the terminology that is being used when discussing uncertainty in various scientific and
Recent contextual developments constitute a backdrop of change for the Dutch electricity system. ... more Recent contextual developments constitute a backdrop of change for the Dutch electricity system. Institutional change driven by liberalization, changing economic competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies, and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments. This paper explores plausible transition trajectories in the face of these developments given technological uncertainty about investment and operating costs,
In this paper we address the role of reflective ski lls in the development and training of new Sy... more In this paper we address the role of reflective ski lls in the development and training of new System Dynamics modelers at the tertiary education level. Over the last two years students at the Delft University of Technology have written a reflective essay on their experiences with the conceptualization, formulation , validation and use of a System Dynamics model in
... 56, Issues 1-3, pp. 141-151. 17. Craig Larman, Applying UML and Patterns: An Introduction to ... more ... 56, Issues 1-3, pp. 141-151. 17. Craig Larman, Applying UML and Patterns: An Introduction to Object-Oriented Analysis and Design and Iterative Development (3rd Edition), Prentice Hall PTR, Upper Saddle River, NJ, 2004. 18. Evans, E. (2004). Domain-Driven Design. ...
Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) is an approach that uses computational experiments to ana... more Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) is an approach that uses computational experiments to analyze complex and uncertain issues. It has been developed mainly for model-based decision support. This paper investigates the extent to which EMA is a promising approach for future oriented technology analysis (FTA). We report on three applications of EMA, using different modeling approaches, in three different technical domains. In the first case, EMA is combined with System Dynamics (SD) to study plausible dynamics for mineral and metal scarcity. The main purpose of this combination of EMA and SD is to gain insight into what kinds of surprising dynamics can occur given a variety of uncertainties and a basic understanding of the system. In the second case, EMA is combined with a hybrid model for airport performance calculations to develop an adaptive strategic plan. This case shows how one can iteratively improve a strategic plan through the identification of plausible external conditions that would cause the plan to perform poorly. In the final case, EMA is combined with an agent-based model to study transition dynamics in the electricity sector and identify crucial factors that positively and negatively affect a transition towards more sustainable functioning of the electricity sector. This paper concludes that EMA is useful for generating foresights and studying systemic and structural transformations despite the presence of a plethora of uncertainties, and for designing robust policies and plans, which are key activities of FTA.
PICMET '08 - 2008 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering & Technology, 2008
In this paper we examine effective representations of knowledge for the purposes of management of... more In this paper we examine effective representations of knowledge for the purposes of management of engineering and technology. Specifically, given the immense volume of data available about scientific outputs, it is highly necessary to condense or abstract this information for management use. This paper considers the utility of such representations in the management of technology. We ask further whether a
PICMET '08 - 2008 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering & Technology, 2008
Uncertainty is inherent in modern day strategic planning. However, there is little consensus in h... more Uncertainty is inherent in modern day strategic planning. However, there is little consensus in how to define uncertainty, what its characteristics are, and how we should relate these characteristics to the appropriate treatment or management of uncertainty. One way of identifying the different meanings of uncertainty and the techniques used for treating it, is to survey the usage of the term uncertainty and identify the techniques that are used in the context of this usage. Underlying this are two hypotheses. First, the semantic hypothesis: a consistently different usage of words must indicate meaningful differences in definition. Second, names of methods, tools, and techniques normally consist of more than one word. Using a tech mining approach, this paper analyzes methods, tools, and techniques discussed by scientists in the context of different usages of the word uncertainty. Several distinct meanings of uncertainty, as encountered in the scientific literature, are identified and explored in more depth in order to identify the associated methods, tools and techniques. We identify the leading methods for the analysis and management of uncertainty. We examine the relationship between the nature of uncertainty and the types of methods selected by scientists. Our results can be used by practitioners in selecting appropriate methods given the nature of the uncertainties encountered.
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