Lessons to be learnt when writing a National Road Safety Plan for Central and East European Count... more Lessons to be learnt when writing a National Road Safety Plan for Central and East European Countries
Estimates by the World Health Organization suggest that, on a yearly basis, road crashes kill 1.2... more Estimates by the World Health Organization suggest that, on a yearly basis, road crashes kill 1.25 million people-nearly 3400 road fatalities per day-and injure up to 50 million. Traffic injuries are not equally spread over the world, however; some countries are hit harder than others, and the chance of being killed in a road crash depends on where one lives. Almost 90% of all traffic casualties occur in low-and middle-income countries (LMIC). Globally, the number of fatalities per 100,000 population (mortality rate) ranges from less than 3 to almost 40. The rate is less than 9 in high-income countries (HIC) but averages around 20 in LMIC, with the African region demonstrating the highest rate (26.6). While road safety trends have been positive in HIC over the last few decades, trends in LMIC are not telling a positive story: road fatalities are expected to increase to almost 2 million road fatalities per year by 2020. The United Nations has adopted several resolutions on road safety and proposes actions to tackle the global road safety crisis. Considering the current level of road safety to be unacceptable, the UN has taken several initiatives. One effort, the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011-2020, has generated substantial activity around the world over the last couple of years. Furthermore, it is very encouraging that the UN included road safety in the Sustainable Development Goals that it laid out in September 2015. Road safety is part of the public health agenda and the urban development agenda. Measured in "real actions," however, the responses so far from the overall global community and individual countries do not suggest that we are already on the right track to bringing down the death toll on roads. The future of road safety is uncertain and definitely not the same for all regions of the world. Countries with a mature road safety approach and an ambition to make further progress are expected to move in the direction of a pro-active approach: a Safe System approach. It is reported that many LMIC, meanwhile, are on the brink of designing road safety strategies and implementing action plans. The international community is willing to support LMIC, but LMIC cannot simply copy successful HIC strategies because local circumstances differ. The principles of successful HIC strategies are applicable, but the priorities and action plans should take root in and align with local conditions.
The transport system and transport policy. An introduction. Second edition, 2023
The number of road crashes, fatalities and injuries is considered unacceptably high in many count... more The number of road crashes, fatalities and injuries is considered unacceptably high in many countries. Risks in road traffic are far more higher than in other modes of transport. Road crashes are tragedies at a personal level and economic costs for society are considerable. A lot of knowledge has been gained over the years on causes of crashes and on risk factors. Our understanding of the effectiveness and efficiency of interventions to reduce risks has grown and implementation resulted in lower risks and less casualties. Fitting in a Safe System approach many promising options can further improve road safety.
Journal of Transportation Safety & Security, Sep 6, 2017
ABSTRACT Statistical methods such as Poisson distribution, negative binomial regression (NB), and... more ABSTRACT Statistical methods such as Poisson distribution, negative binomial regression (NB), and zero inflated negative binomial regression (ZINB) have generally been used in road safety studies to establish the complex relationships between variables. Over the last few years, the artificial neural networks (ANN) model has also been used. The ANN model does not have any prior limitations such as the equality condition of mean and variance observed in Poisson regression. However, though the ANN model has been used in the analysis of different accident types, to the best of our knowledge, no study has used the ANN model for establishing this relationship with truck accident data on divided multilane interurban roads. In this study, the road sections D750/07–D750/15 in Ankara–Aksaray–Eregli, Turkey, were considered and truck accident data from 2008 to 2011 were analyzed using NB and ANN. The analysis show that the ANN model has lower errors and higher R2 values than NB and performs slightly better than NB for predicting the number of trucks involved in accidents. Based on a comparison of performances the study concludes, that ANN could be used as an alternative model for analyzing truck accident data on divided multilane interurban roads in Turkey.
In order to obtain political interest in road safety problems and to learn from other countries' ... more In order to obtain political interest in road safety problems and to learn from other countries' 'good practices', it is often helpful to compare one's own safety situation with that of other countries. In a number of projects tools have been developed for such comparisons. These tools range from simple ratings of countries on their safety outcomes, such as the annual number of fatalities per capita or per kilometre driven by (motor)vehicles to more comprehensive comparisons. These comparisons not only show differences in safety between countries, but to a certain extent also explain such differences in terms of their safety background and measures taken. Finally, tools have been defined to support road safety policy makers in developing possible safety measures or actions. Procedures for such complex safety comparisons have been developed and tested in several so-called SUNflower studies. This promising approach can be further developed into standard procedures for safety comparisons between all countries in the European Union, and other countries worldwide. This paper wishes to outline the development of such standards for the benchmarking of road safety and safety trends as well as procedures for quantifying safety performances of countries. Starting point of this conceptual framework is the so-called SUNflower-pyramid in which three types of indicators are distinguished. The first one of these, the road safety performance indicator, is called an outcome indicator and is based on the number of killed and injured road users. The second indicator type indicates the quality of the implementation of road safety policies: the implementation performance indicators. The third type of indicator indicates the quality of response in policy documents to improve road safety (policy performance indicator). The three types of indicators are embedded in a policy context: the structure and culture of a country, which are considered as background variables. This paper sets out to describe the framework for the development of a comprehensive set of indicators to benchmark road safety performances of countries or of sub-national jurisdictions. The paper also discusses the advantages and disadvantages of combining such indicators and if combined, how to aggregate how different indicators in one composite performance index. It is argued to group countries in different classes with more or less comparable countries. Different procedures are used for this grouping. The results are promising and it is recommended to work with classes of countries.
While the Netherlands is one of the safest countries in the world, with a mortality rate of 3.6 (... more While the Netherlands is one of the safest countries in the world, with a mortality rate of 3.6 (fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants), it is also a country where cycling is very popular (with about 16.5 million inhabitants and circa 18 million bicycles), and cyclists make up about a quarter of all road fatalities and half of the seriously injured. This makes cycling in the Netherlands more dangerous than travelling by car. This article discusses ways in which cycling can be made safer, including constructing more well-designed cycling facilities and enacting a paradigm shift towards safe road traffic (called here "Sustainable Safety") whereby investments are made in designing safer intersections and roundabouts, separating out bicycle lanes from other traffic, and enforcing lower speed limits for all traffic.
Contents of the project: In all EU countries, attempts are being made to promote road safety, and... more Contents of the project: In all EU countries, attempts are being made to promote road safety, and each country has its own approach. This contribution examines the implementation of road safety programmes, their monitoring and evaluation, and their updating. Number of pages:
... 102 5.3. Zijn de botseisen af te stemmen op een duurzaam veilige infrastructuur en omgekeerd?... more ... 102 5.3. Zijn de botseisen af te stemmen op een duurzaam veilige infrastructuur en omgekeerd? 104 5.4. Ontwikkelingen in de primaire veiligheid (ongevalspreventie) 107 5.5. Ontwikkelingen in de secundaire veiligheid (letselpreventie) 110 5.6. Nabeschouwing 112 ...
The year 2020 was an extraordinary year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This pandemic resulted in l... more The year 2020 was an extraordinary year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This pandemic resulted in lockdowns and confinements globally and emptier streets and roads. Traffic patterns and traffic composition (modal split) changed considerably during the pandemic and as a consequence the number of people killed and injured in road crashes. The aim of this research is to present the number of road fatalities and the fatality rates (fatalities per kilometer driven) in 2020 and to compare these numbers and rates with the previous period (2017–2019), a baseline. An online questionnaire was distributed among the forty countries that are members of the International Safety Data and Analysis Group (IRTAD) in the International Transport Forum and 24 were in a position to submit the requested information before the 1st of June 2021. The questionnaire requested information on the monthly number of fatalities on a national level for four years, (2017–2020) and on kilometres driven. The number of fatalities in 2020 was 17.3% lower in the 24 participating countries compared with the baseline period and the reduction is almost seven times higher than annually in these countries in the period 2010–2019. The reduction took place in spring 2020 and not so much in the remainder of the year. The highest reduction were measured among young (0–17) and elderly people (75 and older), with public transport and on motorways. With the exception of one country, reductions in fatalities have been measured in all countries, however we observe major differences between countries. Regarding fatality rates (fatalities per vehicle kilometer travelled), we also observe major differences between countries and not a stable pattern over 2020 and a remarkable increase in April 2020, the month with the largest fatality reduction. Countries with severe COVID-19 restrictions do not necessarily demonstrate the greatest reductions in road fatalities. It is recommended to carry our further analysis to find explanations for the results and for the differences between the countries.
The articles presented in this Special Issue on Road Safety Management represent an illustration ... more The articles presented in this Special Issue on Road Safety Management represent an illustration of the growing interest in policy-related research in the area of road safety. The complex nature of this type of research combined with the observation that scientific journals pay limited attention to this type of research was the background for SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research in the Netherlands to organise a workshop on Scientific Research on Road Safety Management. This workshop generated a lot of attention in the road safety research community as well in the policy making community, and it was decided-in addition to the nine articles based on the presentations at the workshop-to include another seven articles which are considered of relevance for the chosen topic of this special issue.
Lessons to be learnt when writing a National Road Safety Plan for Central and East European Count... more Lessons to be learnt when writing a National Road Safety Plan for Central and East European Countries
Estimates by the World Health Organization suggest that, on a yearly basis, road crashes kill 1.2... more Estimates by the World Health Organization suggest that, on a yearly basis, road crashes kill 1.25 million people-nearly 3400 road fatalities per day-and injure up to 50 million. Traffic injuries are not equally spread over the world, however; some countries are hit harder than others, and the chance of being killed in a road crash depends on where one lives. Almost 90% of all traffic casualties occur in low-and middle-income countries (LMIC). Globally, the number of fatalities per 100,000 population (mortality rate) ranges from less than 3 to almost 40. The rate is less than 9 in high-income countries (HIC) but averages around 20 in LMIC, with the African region demonstrating the highest rate (26.6). While road safety trends have been positive in HIC over the last few decades, trends in LMIC are not telling a positive story: road fatalities are expected to increase to almost 2 million road fatalities per year by 2020. The United Nations has adopted several resolutions on road safety and proposes actions to tackle the global road safety crisis. Considering the current level of road safety to be unacceptable, the UN has taken several initiatives. One effort, the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011-2020, has generated substantial activity around the world over the last couple of years. Furthermore, it is very encouraging that the UN included road safety in the Sustainable Development Goals that it laid out in September 2015. Road safety is part of the public health agenda and the urban development agenda. Measured in "real actions," however, the responses so far from the overall global community and individual countries do not suggest that we are already on the right track to bringing down the death toll on roads. The future of road safety is uncertain and definitely not the same for all regions of the world. Countries with a mature road safety approach and an ambition to make further progress are expected to move in the direction of a pro-active approach: a Safe System approach. It is reported that many LMIC, meanwhile, are on the brink of designing road safety strategies and implementing action plans. The international community is willing to support LMIC, but LMIC cannot simply copy successful HIC strategies because local circumstances differ. The principles of successful HIC strategies are applicable, but the priorities and action plans should take root in and align with local conditions.
The transport system and transport policy. An introduction. Second edition, 2023
The number of road crashes, fatalities and injuries is considered unacceptably high in many count... more The number of road crashes, fatalities and injuries is considered unacceptably high in many countries. Risks in road traffic are far more higher than in other modes of transport. Road crashes are tragedies at a personal level and economic costs for society are considerable. A lot of knowledge has been gained over the years on causes of crashes and on risk factors. Our understanding of the effectiveness and efficiency of interventions to reduce risks has grown and implementation resulted in lower risks and less casualties. Fitting in a Safe System approach many promising options can further improve road safety.
Journal of Transportation Safety & Security, Sep 6, 2017
ABSTRACT Statistical methods such as Poisson distribution, negative binomial regression (NB), and... more ABSTRACT Statistical methods such as Poisson distribution, negative binomial regression (NB), and zero inflated negative binomial regression (ZINB) have generally been used in road safety studies to establish the complex relationships between variables. Over the last few years, the artificial neural networks (ANN) model has also been used. The ANN model does not have any prior limitations such as the equality condition of mean and variance observed in Poisson regression. However, though the ANN model has been used in the analysis of different accident types, to the best of our knowledge, no study has used the ANN model for establishing this relationship with truck accident data on divided multilane interurban roads. In this study, the road sections D750/07–D750/15 in Ankara–Aksaray–Eregli, Turkey, were considered and truck accident data from 2008 to 2011 were analyzed using NB and ANN. The analysis show that the ANN model has lower errors and higher R2 values than NB and performs slightly better than NB for predicting the number of trucks involved in accidents. Based on a comparison of performances the study concludes, that ANN could be used as an alternative model for analyzing truck accident data on divided multilane interurban roads in Turkey.
In order to obtain political interest in road safety problems and to learn from other countries' ... more In order to obtain political interest in road safety problems and to learn from other countries' 'good practices', it is often helpful to compare one's own safety situation with that of other countries. In a number of projects tools have been developed for such comparisons. These tools range from simple ratings of countries on their safety outcomes, such as the annual number of fatalities per capita or per kilometre driven by (motor)vehicles to more comprehensive comparisons. These comparisons not only show differences in safety between countries, but to a certain extent also explain such differences in terms of their safety background and measures taken. Finally, tools have been defined to support road safety policy makers in developing possible safety measures or actions. Procedures for such complex safety comparisons have been developed and tested in several so-called SUNflower studies. This promising approach can be further developed into standard procedures for safety comparisons between all countries in the European Union, and other countries worldwide. This paper wishes to outline the development of such standards for the benchmarking of road safety and safety trends as well as procedures for quantifying safety performances of countries. Starting point of this conceptual framework is the so-called SUNflower-pyramid in which three types of indicators are distinguished. The first one of these, the road safety performance indicator, is called an outcome indicator and is based on the number of killed and injured road users. The second indicator type indicates the quality of the implementation of road safety policies: the implementation performance indicators. The third type of indicator indicates the quality of response in policy documents to improve road safety (policy performance indicator). The three types of indicators are embedded in a policy context: the structure and culture of a country, which are considered as background variables. This paper sets out to describe the framework for the development of a comprehensive set of indicators to benchmark road safety performances of countries or of sub-national jurisdictions. The paper also discusses the advantages and disadvantages of combining such indicators and if combined, how to aggregate how different indicators in one composite performance index. It is argued to group countries in different classes with more or less comparable countries. Different procedures are used for this grouping. The results are promising and it is recommended to work with classes of countries.
While the Netherlands is one of the safest countries in the world, with a mortality rate of 3.6 (... more While the Netherlands is one of the safest countries in the world, with a mortality rate of 3.6 (fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants), it is also a country where cycling is very popular (with about 16.5 million inhabitants and circa 18 million bicycles), and cyclists make up about a quarter of all road fatalities and half of the seriously injured. This makes cycling in the Netherlands more dangerous than travelling by car. This article discusses ways in which cycling can be made safer, including constructing more well-designed cycling facilities and enacting a paradigm shift towards safe road traffic (called here "Sustainable Safety") whereby investments are made in designing safer intersections and roundabouts, separating out bicycle lanes from other traffic, and enforcing lower speed limits for all traffic.
Contents of the project: In all EU countries, attempts are being made to promote road safety, and... more Contents of the project: In all EU countries, attempts are being made to promote road safety, and each country has its own approach. This contribution examines the implementation of road safety programmes, their monitoring and evaluation, and their updating. Number of pages:
... 102 5.3. Zijn de botseisen af te stemmen op een duurzaam veilige infrastructuur en omgekeerd?... more ... 102 5.3. Zijn de botseisen af te stemmen op een duurzaam veilige infrastructuur en omgekeerd? 104 5.4. Ontwikkelingen in de primaire veiligheid (ongevalspreventie) 107 5.5. Ontwikkelingen in de secundaire veiligheid (letselpreventie) 110 5.6. Nabeschouwing 112 ...
The year 2020 was an extraordinary year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This pandemic resulted in l... more The year 2020 was an extraordinary year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This pandemic resulted in lockdowns and confinements globally and emptier streets and roads. Traffic patterns and traffic composition (modal split) changed considerably during the pandemic and as a consequence the number of people killed and injured in road crashes. The aim of this research is to present the number of road fatalities and the fatality rates (fatalities per kilometer driven) in 2020 and to compare these numbers and rates with the previous period (2017–2019), a baseline. An online questionnaire was distributed among the forty countries that are members of the International Safety Data and Analysis Group (IRTAD) in the International Transport Forum and 24 were in a position to submit the requested information before the 1st of June 2021. The questionnaire requested information on the monthly number of fatalities on a national level for four years, (2017–2020) and on kilometres driven. The number of fatalities in 2020 was 17.3% lower in the 24 participating countries compared with the baseline period and the reduction is almost seven times higher than annually in these countries in the period 2010–2019. The reduction took place in spring 2020 and not so much in the remainder of the year. The highest reduction were measured among young (0–17) and elderly people (75 and older), with public transport and on motorways. With the exception of one country, reductions in fatalities have been measured in all countries, however we observe major differences between countries. Regarding fatality rates (fatalities per vehicle kilometer travelled), we also observe major differences between countries and not a stable pattern over 2020 and a remarkable increase in April 2020, the month with the largest fatality reduction. Countries with severe COVID-19 restrictions do not necessarily demonstrate the greatest reductions in road fatalities. It is recommended to carry our further analysis to find explanations for the results and for the differences between the countries.
The articles presented in this Special Issue on Road Safety Management represent an illustration ... more The articles presented in this Special Issue on Road Safety Management represent an illustration of the growing interest in policy-related research in the area of road safety. The complex nature of this type of research combined with the observation that scientific journals pay limited attention to this type of research was the background for SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research in the Netherlands to organise a workshop on Scientific Research on Road Safety Management. This workshop generated a lot of attention in the road safety research community as well in the policy making community, and it was decided-in addition to the nine articles based on the presentations at the workshop-to include another seven articles which are considered of relevance for the chosen topic of this special issue.
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Papers by Fred Wegman