Technological innovations are a key part of the energy transition. However, the social sphere as ... more Technological innovations are a key part of the energy transition. However, the social sphere as a force to facilitate the energy transition must not be neglected. While the socio-technical transition theory provides a framework to connect the technological with the social sphere, the role of the individuals within the transition process remains limited (Upham et al. 2020). Individuals are reduced to the role of consumers and technology users (Avelino and Wittmayer 2016; Nijhof et al. 2022), and the social sphere is subject to change rather than an instigator of it (Kivimaa et al. 2021). Potentially alternative concepts need to be developed and employed to understand the role of the individual within the energy transition. With a focus on the energy transition, this special feature is dedicated to compiling scientific contributions that provide insights into how the individual is embedded within the larger system and how individuals are facilitating the energy transition. Thus, the role of the individual is not limited to the consumer or the user of technology. Rather special feature contributions identify how individuals are agents of change within the energy transition. Furthermore, the seed of change is not limited to technological or market innovations but includes, for example, social innovations contributing to the energy transition. Scientific articles will also provide insights into how individuals are embedded within the larger system. To shed fresh light on interconnections and the role of individuals in the energy transition, alternative approaches to socio-technical or socioeconomic transition theory are welcomed.
Full R and Java source including (shareable) datasets to reproduce the 2021 (submitted) APEN pape... more Full R and Java source including (shareable) datasets to reproduce the 2021 (submitted) APEN paper "Phasing out support schemes for renewables in neighbouring countries: an agent-based model with investment preferences". Using the ABM EMLab Generation 2. <strong>Versions:</strong> 1.1: removed hidden files in zip. Full git repository is on Github (see Readme)
Scholars increasingly propose distributive justice as a means to foster effective and fair outcom... more Scholars increasingly propose distributive justice as a means to foster effective and fair outcomes in climate adaptation. To advance the discussion on its place in climate policy, it is desirable to be able to quantitatively assess the effects of different principles of distribution on the well-being of unequally vulnerable individuals and groups. Here, we present an agent-based model of a stylized social–environmental system subject to an external stress such as a climate change impact, in which individuals with unequal access to resources attempt to fulfil an essential need through resource consumption. This causes environmental damage, and a balance must be found between the processes of resource consumption and environmental degradation to achieve well-being for people and stability for the environment. We operationalize different principles for redistributing resource access as interaction rules in the model and compare their tendency to allow such a balance to emerge. Our res...
Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 2021
Abstract In the next decade, transition researchers need to embrace perspectives, theories, and m... more Abstract In the next decade, transition researchers need to embrace perspectives, theories, and methods from the scientific field of psychology. An integrative research approach that covers the individual, group, and system level, executed in interdisciplinary research teams is necessary for more effective analysis and applications of sustainability transition processes.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2018
Transition modelling is an emerging but growing niche within the broader field of sustainability ... more Transition modelling is an emerging but growing niche within the broader field of sustainability transitions research. The objective of this paper is to explore the characteristics of this niche in relation to a range of existing modelling approaches and literatures with which it shares commonalities or from which it could draw. We distil a number of key aspects we think a transitions model should be able to address, from a broadly acknowledged, empirical list of transition characteristics. We review some of the main strands in modelling of socio-technological change with regards to their ability to address these characteristics. These are: Ecoinnovation literatures (energy-economy models and Integrated Assessment Models), evolutionary economics, complex systems models, computational social science simulations using agent based models, system dynamics models and socio-ecological systems models. The modelling approaches reviewed can address many of the features that di erentiate sustainability transitions from other socioeconomic dynamics or innovations. The most problematic features are the representation of qualitatively di erent system states and of the normative aspects of change. The comparison provides transition researchers with a starting point for their choice of a modelling approach, whose characteristics should correspond to the characteristics of the research question they face. A promising line of research is to develop innovative models of co-evolution of behaviours and technologies towards sustainability, involving change in the structure of the societal and technical systems.
The effectiveness of a strategic reserve in the presence of a high portfolio share of renewable e... more The effectiveness of a strategic reserve in the presence of a high portfolio share of renewable energy sources
Heating behavior of households is key for reducing domestic energy demand and mitigating climate ... more Heating behavior of households is key for reducing domestic energy demand and mitigating climate change. Recently, various technical devices have been developed, providing households with feedback on their heating behavior and supporting energy conservation behavior. The impact of such devices on overall energy consumption depends on (1) the impact of a device within a household, (2) the diffusion of devices to other households and the number of adopters, and (3) the diffusion of the induced behavioral change beyond these households. While the first two processes are currently established in assessments of sustainable household devices, we suggest that adding behavior diffusion is essential when assessing devices that explicitly target behavioral change. We therefore propose an assessment framework that includes all three processes. We implement this framework in an agent-based model by combining two existing simulation models to explore the effect of adding behavior diffusion. In three simulation experiments, we identify two mechanisms by which behavior diffusion (1) spreads the effect of such devices from adopters to non-adopters and (2) increases the average speed of behavioral change of households. From these results we conclude that behavior diffusion should be included in assessments of behavior-changing feedback devices.
Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 2015
Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, a... more Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectors and scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the view that the societal transitions research field would benefit from the further maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper shows how modelling can enhance the understanding of and support stakeholders to steer societal transitions. It discusses the benefits modelling provides for studying large societal systems and elaborates on different ways models can be used for transitions studies. Two model applications are presented in some detail to illustrate the benefits. Then, limitations of modelling societal ଝ We, the authors, belong to a group of modellers who aim to make modelling of transitions a visible and fruitful subfield of the societal transitions research field. We are related to the Sustainability Transitions Research Network (STRN, www.transitionsnetwork.org) and invite all interested researchers in the STRN and beyond to contact and join us.
We have developed an agent-based model to optimize green-field network design in an industrial ar... more We have developed an agent-based model to optimize green-field network design in an industrial area. We aim to capture some of the deep uncertainties surrounding infrastructure design by modelling it developing specific ant colony optimizations. Hence, we propose a variety of extensions to our existing work, first ideas on how to realize them and three cases to explicate our ideas. One case is the design of a CO2 pipeline network in Rotterdam industrial area. First simulation results have shown the relevance of the approach.
Infrastructures are critical for human society, but vulnerable to climate change. The current bod... more Infrastructures are critical for human society, but vulnerable to climate change. The current body of research on infrastructure adaptation does not adequately account for the interconnectedness of infrastructures, both internally and with one another. We take a step toward addressing this gap through the introduction of a framework for infrastructure adaptation that conceptualizes infrastructures as complex socio-technical ''systems of systems'' embedded in a changing natural environment. We demonstrate the use of this framework by structuring potential climate change impacts and identifying adaptation options for a preliminary set of cases-road, electricity and drinking water infrastructures. By helping to clarify the relationships between impacts at different levels, we find that the framework facilitates the identification of key nodes in the web of possible impacts and helps in the identification of particularly nocuous weather conditions. We also explore how the framework may be applied more comprehensively to facilitate adaptation governance. We suggest that it may help to ensure that the mental models of stakeholders and the quantitative models of researchers incorporate the essential aspects of interacting climate and infrastructure systems. Further research is necessary to test the framework in these contexts and to determine when and where its application may be most beneficial.
For many years, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been discussed as a technology that may make... more For many years, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been discussed as a technology that may make a significant contribution to achieving major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. At present, however, only two large-scale power plants capture a total of 2.4 Mt CO2/a. Several reasons are identified for this mismatch between expectations and realised deployment. Applying bibliographic coupling, the research front of CCS, understood to be published peer-reviewed papers, is explored to scrutinise whether the current research is sufficient to meet these problems. The analysis reveals that research is dominated by technical research (69%). Only 31% of papers address non-technical issues, particularly exploring public perception, policy, and regulation, providing a broader view on CCS implementation on the regional or national level, or using assessment frameworks. This shows that the research is advancing and attempting to meet the outlined problems, which are mainly non-technology re...
Have you ever wanted to know whether a CO2 tax outperforms the EU emissions trading scheme? Or ho... more Have you ever wanted to know whether a CO2 tax outperforms the EU emissions trading scheme? Or how long it really takes markets to change and to let consumers choose differently? In this book, Emile Chappin explores simulation models to provide us with answers before policy interventions are implemented and shows that, by developing agent-based models, we can simulate energy transition. Learn about a new framework that enables us to model energy infrastructure systems as complex socio-technical systems, which evolve as a result of distributed decision making by actors in the system. See how running agent-based models let the system structure and dynamics emerge from the interactions between actors and technologies. Understand how actors, who decide on operation and investment, are responsive to policy interventions, market rules, and technological development. Find out from simulations of the electricity production sector, the LNG market, and consumer lighting that interventions in ...
Transparent, consistent accounting of climate-related energy targets is a fundamental building bl... more Transparent, consistent accounting of climate-related energy targets is a fundamental building block to the architecture of international climate agreements. Many of these climate targets focus on the transition of the energy system which has led to the development of various energy transition scenarios. Now that fossil resources are being replaced by non-combustible and renewable energy sources a re-assessment of the applicability of the current set of metrics on which these energy scenarios are based is necessary. Now that energy derived from renewable and non-combustible resources with abundant availability but limited instantaneous availability becomes more prominent the ongoing electrification of the energy system combined with the decarbonisation of the electricity system has caused the current set of energy scenario metrics to become ambiguous. More specifically we show that Total Primary Energy (TPE) and its related indicators, Energy Efficiency (EE), Energy Intensity (EI) as well as the key metric Electricity Generation Capacity (EGC) have become unrepresentative, potentially misleading and for a large part irrelevant. This is problematic as these metrics steer climate policy and investment decisions based on statistical artefacts rather than valid representation of the energy system. This study concludes with a set of requirements on energy scenarios to overcome these problems that will lead energy scenarios to focus on Total Final Consumption within a mix of related energy metrics. 1.1. Metrics and transition dynamics With the effect of climate change becoming more evident,
Samenvatting Scientific Publications Curriculum Vitae NGInfra PhD thesis series on infrastructure... more Samenvatting Scientific Publications Curriculum Vitae NGInfra PhD thesis series on infrastructures vii Contents viii I sincerely hope this thesis may become a step towards a better way in which we live our lives. Well.. . now-as Elphaba sings in Wicked-I think "it's time to trust my instincts, close my eyes, and leap!" I sincerely hope this thesis helps our instincts and aids us in making the right choices. Let us take a leap of faith! Émile Jean Louis Chappin-April 2011 xiv 2 Transitions and Transition Management Well... a regime change. Caused by a bizarre and unexpected twister of fate.
New opportunities for modelling energy systems can be found in linked open data, as it is still i... more New opportunities for modelling energy systems can be found in linked open data, as it is still in its infancy. Despite these opportunities, adopting linked open data practices is not straightforward. From our experience with using, linking and combining open energy data sources on power plants severe challenges of using (linked) open data for energy modelling emerged: current practices show a lack of awareness of data management processes. In our view, data collectors, model developers and model users are part of the energy modelling system, of which the performance can be improved by making better use of open data. Our experience with our Energy Modelling Laboratory-amongst others by harnessing open data by means of an open platform Enipedia-has led us to identify and actively explore opportunities for open data driven energy modelling. Our work explores steps to highlight and expose what we believe are fundamental bottlenecks in energy modelling and hopefully aid energy researchers.
Technological innovations are a key part of the energy transition. However, the social sphere as ... more Technological innovations are a key part of the energy transition. However, the social sphere as a force to facilitate the energy transition must not be neglected. While the socio-technical transition theory provides a framework to connect the technological with the social sphere, the role of the individuals within the transition process remains limited (Upham et al. 2020). Individuals are reduced to the role of consumers and technology users (Avelino and Wittmayer 2016; Nijhof et al. 2022), and the social sphere is subject to change rather than an instigator of it (Kivimaa et al. 2021). Potentially alternative concepts need to be developed and employed to understand the role of the individual within the energy transition. With a focus on the energy transition, this special feature is dedicated to compiling scientific contributions that provide insights into how the individual is embedded within the larger system and how individuals are facilitating the energy transition. Thus, the role of the individual is not limited to the consumer or the user of technology. Rather special feature contributions identify how individuals are agents of change within the energy transition. Furthermore, the seed of change is not limited to technological or market innovations but includes, for example, social innovations contributing to the energy transition. Scientific articles will also provide insights into how individuals are embedded within the larger system. To shed fresh light on interconnections and the role of individuals in the energy transition, alternative approaches to socio-technical or socioeconomic transition theory are welcomed.
Full R and Java source including (shareable) datasets to reproduce the 2021 (submitted) APEN pape... more Full R and Java source including (shareable) datasets to reproduce the 2021 (submitted) APEN paper "Phasing out support schemes for renewables in neighbouring countries: an agent-based model with investment preferences". Using the ABM EMLab Generation 2. <strong>Versions:</strong> 1.1: removed hidden files in zip. Full git repository is on Github (see Readme)
Scholars increasingly propose distributive justice as a means to foster effective and fair outcom... more Scholars increasingly propose distributive justice as a means to foster effective and fair outcomes in climate adaptation. To advance the discussion on its place in climate policy, it is desirable to be able to quantitatively assess the effects of different principles of distribution on the well-being of unequally vulnerable individuals and groups. Here, we present an agent-based model of a stylized social–environmental system subject to an external stress such as a climate change impact, in which individuals with unequal access to resources attempt to fulfil an essential need through resource consumption. This causes environmental damage, and a balance must be found between the processes of resource consumption and environmental degradation to achieve well-being for people and stability for the environment. We operationalize different principles for redistributing resource access as interaction rules in the model and compare their tendency to allow such a balance to emerge. Our res...
Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 2021
Abstract In the next decade, transition researchers need to embrace perspectives, theories, and m... more Abstract In the next decade, transition researchers need to embrace perspectives, theories, and methods from the scientific field of psychology. An integrative research approach that covers the individual, group, and system level, executed in interdisciplinary research teams is necessary for more effective analysis and applications of sustainability transition processes.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2018
Transition modelling is an emerging but growing niche within the broader field of sustainability ... more Transition modelling is an emerging but growing niche within the broader field of sustainability transitions research. The objective of this paper is to explore the characteristics of this niche in relation to a range of existing modelling approaches and literatures with which it shares commonalities or from which it could draw. We distil a number of key aspects we think a transitions model should be able to address, from a broadly acknowledged, empirical list of transition characteristics. We review some of the main strands in modelling of socio-technological change with regards to their ability to address these characteristics. These are: Ecoinnovation literatures (energy-economy models and Integrated Assessment Models), evolutionary economics, complex systems models, computational social science simulations using agent based models, system dynamics models and socio-ecological systems models. The modelling approaches reviewed can address many of the features that di erentiate sustainability transitions from other socioeconomic dynamics or innovations. The most problematic features are the representation of qualitatively di erent system states and of the normative aspects of change. The comparison provides transition researchers with a starting point for their choice of a modelling approach, whose characteristics should correspond to the characteristics of the research question they face. A promising line of research is to develop innovative models of co-evolution of behaviours and technologies towards sustainability, involving change in the structure of the societal and technical systems.
The effectiveness of a strategic reserve in the presence of a high portfolio share of renewable e... more The effectiveness of a strategic reserve in the presence of a high portfolio share of renewable energy sources
Heating behavior of households is key for reducing domestic energy demand and mitigating climate ... more Heating behavior of households is key for reducing domestic energy demand and mitigating climate change. Recently, various technical devices have been developed, providing households with feedback on their heating behavior and supporting energy conservation behavior. The impact of such devices on overall energy consumption depends on (1) the impact of a device within a household, (2) the diffusion of devices to other households and the number of adopters, and (3) the diffusion of the induced behavioral change beyond these households. While the first two processes are currently established in assessments of sustainable household devices, we suggest that adding behavior diffusion is essential when assessing devices that explicitly target behavioral change. We therefore propose an assessment framework that includes all three processes. We implement this framework in an agent-based model by combining two existing simulation models to explore the effect of adding behavior diffusion. In three simulation experiments, we identify two mechanisms by which behavior diffusion (1) spreads the effect of such devices from adopters to non-adopters and (2) increases the average speed of behavioral change of households. From these results we conclude that behavior diffusion should be included in assessments of behavior-changing feedback devices.
Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 2015
Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, a... more Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectors and scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the view that the societal transitions research field would benefit from the further maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper shows how modelling can enhance the understanding of and support stakeholders to steer societal transitions. It discusses the benefits modelling provides for studying large societal systems and elaborates on different ways models can be used for transitions studies. Two model applications are presented in some detail to illustrate the benefits. Then, limitations of modelling societal ଝ We, the authors, belong to a group of modellers who aim to make modelling of transitions a visible and fruitful subfield of the societal transitions research field. We are related to the Sustainability Transitions Research Network (STRN, www.transitionsnetwork.org) and invite all interested researchers in the STRN and beyond to contact and join us.
We have developed an agent-based model to optimize green-field network design in an industrial ar... more We have developed an agent-based model to optimize green-field network design in an industrial area. We aim to capture some of the deep uncertainties surrounding infrastructure design by modelling it developing specific ant colony optimizations. Hence, we propose a variety of extensions to our existing work, first ideas on how to realize them and three cases to explicate our ideas. One case is the design of a CO2 pipeline network in Rotterdam industrial area. First simulation results have shown the relevance of the approach.
Infrastructures are critical for human society, but vulnerable to climate change. The current bod... more Infrastructures are critical for human society, but vulnerable to climate change. The current body of research on infrastructure adaptation does not adequately account for the interconnectedness of infrastructures, both internally and with one another. We take a step toward addressing this gap through the introduction of a framework for infrastructure adaptation that conceptualizes infrastructures as complex socio-technical ''systems of systems'' embedded in a changing natural environment. We demonstrate the use of this framework by structuring potential climate change impacts and identifying adaptation options for a preliminary set of cases-road, electricity and drinking water infrastructures. By helping to clarify the relationships between impacts at different levels, we find that the framework facilitates the identification of key nodes in the web of possible impacts and helps in the identification of particularly nocuous weather conditions. We also explore how the framework may be applied more comprehensively to facilitate adaptation governance. We suggest that it may help to ensure that the mental models of stakeholders and the quantitative models of researchers incorporate the essential aspects of interacting climate and infrastructure systems. Further research is necessary to test the framework in these contexts and to determine when and where its application may be most beneficial.
For many years, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been discussed as a technology that may make... more For many years, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been discussed as a technology that may make a significant contribution to achieving major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. At present, however, only two large-scale power plants capture a total of 2.4 Mt CO2/a. Several reasons are identified for this mismatch between expectations and realised deployment. Applying bibliographic coupling, the research front of CCS, understood to be published peer-reviewed papers, is explored to scrutinise whether the current research is sufficient to meet these problems. The analysis reveals that research is dominated by technical research (69%). Only 31% of papers address non-technical issues, particularly exploring public perception, policy, and regulation, providing a broader view on CCS implementation on the regional or national level, or using assessment frameworks. This shows that the research is advancing and attempting to meet the outlined problems, which are mainly non-technology re...
Have you ever wanted to know whether a CO2 tax outperforms the EU emissions trading scheme? Or ho... more Have you ever wanted to know whether a CO2 tax outperforms the EU emissions trading scheme? Or how long it really takes markets to change and to let consumers choose differently? In this book, Emile Chappin explores simulation models to provide us with answers before policy interventions are implemented and shows that, by developing agent-based models, we can simulate energy transition. Learn about a new framework that enables us to model energy infrastructure systems as complex socio-technical systems, which evolve as a result of distributed decision making by actors in the system. See how running agent-based models let the system structure and dynamics emerge from the interactions between actors and technologies. Understand how actors, who decide on operation and investment, are responsive to policy interventions, market rules, and technological development. Find out from simulations of the electricity production sector, the LNG market, and consumer lighting that interventions in ...
Transparent, consistent accounting of climate-related energy targets is a fundamental building bl... more Transparent, consistent accounting of climate-related energy targets is a fundamental building block to the architecture of international climate agreements. Many of these climate targets focus on the transition of the energy system which has led to the development of various energy transition scenarios. Now that fossil resources are being replaced by non-combustible and renewable energy sources a re-assessment of the applicability of the current set of metrics on which these energy scenarios are based is necessary. Now that energy derived from renewable and non-combustible resources with abundant availability but limited instantaneous availability becomes more prominent the ongoing electrification of the energy system combined with the decarbonisation of the electricity system has caused the current set of energy scenario metrics to become ambiguous. More specifically we show that Total Primary Energy (TPE) and its related indicators, Energy Efficiency (EE), Energy Intensity (EI) as well as the key metric Electricity Generation Capacity (EGC) have become unrepresentative, potentially misleading and for a large part irrelevant. This is problematic as these metrics steer climate policy and investment decisions based on statistical artefacts rather than valid representation of the energy system. This study concludes with a set of requirements on energy scenarios to overcome these problems that will lead energy scenarios to focus on Total Final Consumption within a mix of related energy metrics. 1.1. Metrics and transition dynamics With the effect of climate change becoming more evident,
Samenvatting Scientific Publications Curriculum Vitae NGInfra PhD thesis series on infrastructure... more Samenvatting Scientific Publications Curriculum Vitae NGInfra PhD thesis series on infrastructures vii Contents viii I sincerely hope this thesis may become a step towards a better way in which we live our lives. Well.. . now-as Elphaba sings in Wicked-I think "it's time to trust my instincts, close my eyes, and leap!" I sincerely hope this thesis helps our instincts and aids us in making the right choices. Let us take a leap of faith! Émile Jean Louis Chappin-April 2011 xiv 2 Transitions and Transition Management Well... a regime change. Caused by a bizarre and unexpected twister of fate.
New opportunities for modelling energy systems can be found in linked open data, as it is still i... more New opportunities for modelling energy systems can be found in linked open data, as it is still in its infancy. Despite these opportunities, adopting linked open data practices is not straightforward. From our experience with using, linking and combining open energy data sources on power plants severe challenges of using (linked) open data for energy modelling emerged: current practices show a lack of awareness of data management processes. In our view, data collectors, model developers and model users are part of the energy modelling system, of which the performance can be improved by making better use of open data. Our experience with our Energy Modelling Laboratory-amongst others by harnessing open data by means of an open platform Enipedia-has led us to identify and actively explore opportunities for open data driven energy modelling. Our work explores steps to highlight and expose what we believe are fundamental bottlenecks in energy modelling and hopefully aid energy researchers.
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