Improving real-time reservoir operation during flood season by making the most of streamflow forecasts
Journal of Hydrology, 2021
Streamflow forecasts play an important role in real-time reservoir operation, especially during t... more Streamflow forecasts play an important role in real-time reservoir operation, especially during the flood season. However, nowcast, short-term, and mid-term forecasts have significant differences in their uncertainties, leading to a gap between these forecasts and their combined use. To make the most of these forecasts, this paper defines a reliable forecast horizon (RFH) and proposes a model based on the three-stage-based operation rule (Three-OR), in which the streamflow forecasts are jointly used with different levels of uncertainty. To evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model, it is applied to the Wan’an Reservoir located at the midstream of the Ganjiang River in China with the objectives of flood control and water utilization (i.e., hydropower generation and water supply). The results reveal the following: 1) both flood control and water utilization can be improved when compared with the current operation rule; 2) floods with a higher peak and larger volu...
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Papers by Jianshi Zhao