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The data doesn't match - MMM v7-2

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • January 12, 2026 • 0 Comments
The data doesn't match - MMM v7-2

Officially the economy grew at a 4.3% rate in the 3rd quarter and by some estimates may (officially) grow at a 5.3% rate in the 4th quarter. You would think we'd see all of the leading economic indicators humming along, but other than stock prices and the money

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Musings,Economic Update,Payrolls,Housing,Defense Stocks

What can go wrong? - MMM v7-1

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • January 05, 2026 • 0 Comments
What can go wrong? - MMM v7-1

Here we go again, time for the 7th year of the Monday Morning Musings (MMM). For newer readers, this was started in early 2020 as this odd virus from China started to hit our borders. With it, market volatility jumped, news alerts were hitting all of our phones multiple times

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Musings

4th Quarter 2025 - Winter Newsletter

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • January 02, 2026 • 0 Comments
4th Quarter 2025 - Winter Newsletter

Yet another strong year

2025 started with optimism that was quickly put to the test as President Trump announced a series of strong tariffs ahead of his April “Liberation Day” announcement. As stocks plummeted, the President reversed coarse, just before the S&P 500 hit “bear market” territory of

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Newsletter

Rocketship Economy? - MMM v6-52

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • December 29, 2025 • 0 Comments
Rocketship Economy? - MMM v6-52

If you read last week’s headlines, you’d think the economy just chugged an energy drink and sprinted to 4.3% growth. Sounds great—finally, something going up that isn’t the price of eggs or your morning latte, right? (Seriously, when did coffee become a luxury item?) But

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Musings,GDP

Data Problems - MMM v6-51

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • December 22, 2025 • 0 Comments
Data Problems - MMM v6-51

The Federal Reserve often says they are "data dependent". This often leads to confusion and hyper-focus on every data release as the market speculates what it means for the next Fed meeting. Most of November saw a drop in stock prices after the Fed pushed back on the thought of

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Musings,Payrolls,inflation,Consumer Sentiment
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The purpose of SEM’s Traders Blog is to provide simple explanations about the current market environment. It is designed to give advisors talking points about the market and for individual investors to better understand what is happening.

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