NEW: Strength of Schedule

all 32 NFL teams in camps today so we updated!

pulled in latest odds to accurately reflect current opinion of teams

5 easiest:

1. Lions
2. Bengals
3. Saints
4. Jets
5. Ravens

5 hardest:

1. Cardinals
2. Dolphins
3. Panthers
4. Commanders
5. Cowboys

Full analysis: sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-s… 3 largest shifts towards easier schedules since June:

1. Bengals
2. Raiders
3. Jets

Cincinnati faces the Browns twice, the Dolphins, and the Bucs this season.

Those three teams rank in the top four of teams whose win totals have been bet against the most since June.

As a result, because the betting market is fading those opponents, the schedule has gotten easier for the Bengals.

The Raiders' schedule was the #19 most difficult.

It has shifted to the #13 most difficult because they have games against the Browns, Dolphins, and Cardinals, the top-three teams who were bet against most so far since June.

I never knew about a "Bears Tax"

until yesterday

today, you'll learn about it too so yesterday I shared that the Bears opponents had the fewest penalty yards called against them last year

678 penalty yards called on Bears opponents

the NFL average was 871

nearly 200 more

but apparently that's just the beginning

https://x.com/SharpFootball/status/2052473274785841641

I evaluated the last 4 years of John Lynch drafts

his performance:

2023: #31
2024: #28
2025: #31
2026: #32

after the draft, Lynch claimed he knows better than everyone else

the data shows he doesn’t

I went thru every single "reach" he made

it's gross
sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/john-… when asked by @grantcohn why he's confident in his board when it differs so much from the consensus, Lynch responded:

"The consensus in this building...that's what I care about"

If he was right, his "reaches" would work out for him & the 49ers

he has more reaches than any GM

best value 2026 NFL draft classes

1. Commanders
2. Panthers
3. Colts
4. Bengals
5. Jets
6. Giants
7. Buccaneers
8. Raiders
9. Falcons
10. Chiefs

see pic for 1-32 plus methodology

READ FULL ANALYSIS:



team-by-team & round-by-round analysis to follow 🧵 sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2026-… 2026 NFL draft player values by round:

most underdrafted (best values)

most overdrafted (worst values aka reaches)

Rounds 1-3 by best/worst player:

there is a bad narrative about Mike McDaniel out there

with his QB1, he's 25-13 (65.8%)

#7 best in the NFL

with backup QBs the record is bad

so that makes him a bad HC?

I don't understand that logic at all

and here's something that I'd LOVE to hear people explain to me.... many people think Tua is mediocre

so what does it say about a HC who takes a mediocre QB & gets that QB to be the

*ONLY QB IN THE NFL*

to rank top-5 in EPA AND success in EACH of the last 3 years?

how is the QB mediocre & HC bad but the results are elite?

make it make sense

today alone I've seen people refer to Tua as:

- complete embarrassment of a QB
- borderline unserviceable
- pathetic
- garbage

I knew he was somewhat polarizing, but I didn't realize so many people were so out of touch with his actual performance

so let's talk Tua... did you know in 2024 Tua ranked #4 in EPA & #3 in success?

did you know in 2023 Tua ranked #2 in EPA & #2 in success?

did you know in 2022 Tua ranked #2 in EPA & #5 in success?

did you know Tua is the ONLY QB IN THE NFL to rank top-5 in BOTH EPA & success rate in EACH of the last 3 yrs?

best value 2025 NFL draft classes

1. Falcons
2. Browns
3. Cardinals
4. Eagles
5. Giants
6. Chiefs
7. Buccaneers
8. Steelers
9. Ravens
10. Bills

see pic for 1-32 plus methodology

READ FULL ANALYSIS:



team-by-team & round-by-round analysis to follow 🧵 sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-d… 2025 NFL draft player values by round:

most underdrafted (best values)

most overdrafted (worst values aka reaches)

Rounds 1-3 by best/worst player:

the NFL controls WHEN you play, not WHO you play

I've identified the most important observations of the 2024 schedule you need to know

the schedule is less fair & equitable at a historic level in many areas

let's deep dive into the worst issues 🧵

sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/teams-… let's look at schedule equity using a number of variables related to rest & prep

- Net rest edge
- More or less rest than opponent
- Opponent’s days to prep for your game
- Short week road games
- Games off road SNF/MNF
- Negated bye weeks
- 3 games in 10 days (what??!!)

but first let's talk historic inequity

The NFL pushed the panic button 🚨

They have a ref in their rotation who is a MASSIVE edge to road teams

Road teams win at the #1 highest rate with him...

He penalizes home teams in ways no other ref does... and...

He's calling the Chiefs road game

sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/chiefs… it was a fascinating decision to put Shawn Smith on the Chiefs game

the last 3 years:

with other refs, home teams win 55.9%

but with Smith, home win rates drop to 40.8%

with other refs, home teams cover the spread 50.1%

but with Smith, home cover rates drop to 37.0%

it's not just WHO you play

the NFL doesn't control that

it's WHEN you play them

the NFL has 100% control of that

they set their schedule

unfortunately, I found the 2023 schedule is less fair & equitable at a historic level in many areas

a deep dive into the worst issues 🧵 let's look at schedule equity using a number of variables related to rest & prep

- Net rest edge
- More or less rest than opponent
- Opponent’s days to prep for your game
- Short week road games
- Games off road SNF/MNF
- Negated bye weeks

but first let's talk historic inequity

Howie Roseman's Eagles received the #3 best value of the 2023 draft based on expectations

CB Kelee Ringo was the #2 best value of the 4th round

he snagged DL Jalen Carter & EDGE Nolan Smith in the 1st round later than expected

another solid draft for a Super Bowl contender the Cleveland Browns ranked top-5 in draft value

they drafted 6 of their first 8 players later than expected

while they lacked picks in the first two rounds, they really capitalized on what they had at their disposal

best value 2023 NFL draft classes

1. Giants
2. Steelers
3. Eagles
4. Bengals
5. Browns
6. Titans
7. Broncos
8. Dolphins
9. Colts
10. Jaguars

see pic for 1-32 plus methodology

team-by-team & round-by-round analysis to follow 🧵 2023 NFL draft player selections:

most underdrafted (best values)

and overdrafted (worst values)

by round (rounds 1-5)

QBs on cheap rookie deals are values

but how often do they actually achieve the goal of building a true contender?

why have many teams found Super Bowl glory by acquiring older, vet QBs of late?

a 🧵 sharing data behind 1st round QB success & failure

foxsports.com/stories/nfl/sh… only 5 QBs have won a Super Bowl since 2014:

Patrick Mahomes
Matthew Stafford
Tom Brady
Nick Foles
Peyton Manning

what do the last 4 have in common?

they won a Super Bowl for a team that didn’t draft them, but instead acquired them, and most did so in Year 1 with the new team

the NFL is broken if we have teams hoping for an upside of Brock Purdy in an ideal world... while Lamar is on the market

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1640729332934144000

it is inexcusable the way the Ravens have managed the WR position

Eric DeCosta's comments show an awareness that his track record drafting WRs is bad & some teams are better/worse scouting certain positions

so let's discuss how Baltimore has managed the WR position recently

1/ the last 3 years COMBINED, the Ravens have ranked #31 in WR spending

only ONE team spent less on WRs than the Ravens

that was with a young QB in Lamar Jackson, who was both:

1) on a cheap rookie deal

2) could use solid vet WR(s) to help him develop & gain comfort

the 18 longest passes from Kyler Murray in 2022

👀

Murray went 1-of-18 on these attempts

613 total air yards

only 32 yards gained

his 5.6% is the lowest completion % for any QB targeting these distances since at least 2000

longest attempt first…ordered in descending length on all pass attempts over 20 yards last year

out of 35 QBs, Kyler Murray ranked:

#35 in EPA/att: -0.39

#35 in success rate: 21.7%

#35 in YPA: 5.7

#35 in passer rating: 18.4

#34 in comp %: 10-of-46 (21.7%)

Andy Reid & Patrick Mahomes were impervious to whatever was thrown at them last year

literally everything defenses tried to throw at them, they solved

it was truly amazing

they destroyed man or zone, didn't matter... Mahomes and Reid completely solved their issues with 2-high which had existed in 2020 & 2021...

we know the Bengals O-Line is injured

4 key aspects of the Bengals pass game today:

1️⃣ Burrow's has NFL’s fastest time to throw

2️⃣ Cincy has NFL’s #1 highest pass rate

3️⃣ Bills pressure rate ⬇️ without Von Miller

4️⃣ Bills D vs quick WR passes

let’s discuss | @SportsGrid 1️⃣ 72% of Joe Burrow's passes since Week 13 have come in less than 2.5 seconds

that's #1 in the NFL

the NFL average is 52%

37% of his WR passes are coming out in less than 2 seconds

the NFL has just massively incentivized the following for Week 18:

KC to win vs LVR
BUF to win vs NE
CIN to win vs BAL
BAL to win vs CIN

let's walk through the scenarios for every team impacted

1/x a KC win ensures they are the 1-seed AND would host the AFCCG vs any team other than BUF

unless BUF loses to NE...

in which case KC hosts the AFCCG

it's a tough task to discuss how the NFL plans to finish the season given the uncertainties, our heavy hearts & continued prayers for Damar Hamlin

very soon the NFL must decide how they are going to proceed with the season

let's clarify the options:

sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/what-… most people assume the game CIN-BUF will not be resumed at a later date

let's discuss both options, resumed or canceled

if is canceled:

standings are calculated on win % (as usual)

current AFC Standings and win %:

0.812 - KC (13-3)
0.800 - BUF (12-3)
0.733 - CIN (11-4)

it’s almost as if having Matt Patricia in your ear as a young QB instead of a real OC is a bad plan ah well, at least Mac Jones and the Patriots have the #5 most expensive WR in the NFL vs the cap

it's crazy but Nelson Agholor's $14.9M cap hit this year is 5th most expensive in the NFL

and NE is spending $70M on their receiving corps this yr (WR+TE)

by FAR #1 most in the NFL