Forecasts
Our global economic and financial forecasts
Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.
Growth (GDP)
Last updated: 30 January
| QoQ% Annualised (avg) | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Japan | 0.8 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Germany | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| France | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| UK | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Italy | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Canada | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Australia | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Eurozone | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Austria | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Spain | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Netherlands | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Belgium | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Greece | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Portugal | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Switzerland | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Sweden | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| YoY% (avg) | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Croatia | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Czech Republic | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Hungary | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Poland | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| Romania | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| Turkey | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| Serbia | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 3.7 |
| Azerbaijan | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Kazakhstan | 5.3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 4.0 |
| Russia | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Uzbekistan | 7.9 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 5.5 |
| Ukraine | 3.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.4 |
| China | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| India | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Indonesia | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| Korea | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Philippines | 4.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 6.0 |
| Singapore | 5.7 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| Taiwan | 12.7 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 4.7 |
Inflation (CPI)
Last updated: 30 January
|
YoY% (avg) |
4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Japan | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Germany | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| France | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| UK | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Italy | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Canada | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Australia | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Eurozone | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Austria | 3.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Spain | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Netherlands | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Belgium | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Greece | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Portugal | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Switzerland | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Sweden | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Bulgaria | 5.1 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Croatia | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| Czech Republic | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Hungary | 3.7 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 4.3 |
| Poland | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Romania | 9.7 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 |
| Turkey | 30.9 | 27.2 | 24.5 | 22.4 | 22.0 | 20.6 | 19.4 | 17.6 | 17.0 | 34.9 | 24.4 | 18.9 |
| Serbia | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 3.8 |
| Azerbaijan | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 8.9 |
| Kazakhstan | 12.4 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.6 |
| Russia | 6.7 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 4.2 |
| Uzbekistan | 7.5 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| Ukraine | 10.5 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 6.2 |
| China | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| India | 1.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| Indonesia | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Korea | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Philippines | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Singapore | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Taiwan | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Policy rates
Last updated: 30 January
| G10 (%, eop) | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (upper bound) | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Eurozone (deposit rate) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Japan (upper bound) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| UK | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Switzerland | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sweden | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Norway | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Canada | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| Australia | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| EMEA (%, eop) | ||||||||
| Czech Republic | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Hungary | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| Poland | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Romania | 6.50 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.00 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Turkey | 35.00 | 32.00 | 29.00 | 27.00 | 25.00 | 23.00 | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| Serbia | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Azerbaijan | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 7.75 | 10.75 | 10.50 | 10.50 | 10.25 |
| Kazakhstan | 19.00 | 18.00 | 17.50 | 17.00 | 16.00 | 15.00 | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| Russia | 16.00 | 14.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 11.00 | 9.50 | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| Uzbekistan | 14.00 | 13.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 11.75 | 11.50 | 11.25 | 11.00 |
| Ukraine | 14.50 | 14.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 12.50 | 12.50 | 12.00 | 11.50 |
| Asia (%, eop) | ||||||||
| China (7 day reverse repo rate) | 1.40 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| India | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.50 |
| Indonesia | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
| Korea | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Philippines | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Taiwan | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
3 month rates
Last updated: 30 January
| G10 (%, eop) | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Eurozone | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 |
| Japan | 1.15 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| UK | 3.70 | 3.35 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Switzerland | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Canada | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| Australia | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| EMEA (%, eop) | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F |
| Czech Republic | 3.46 | 3.26 | 3.26 | 3.26 | 3.26 | 3.26 | 3.26 | 3.26 |
| Hungary | 5.85 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.60 | 4.85 | 4.35 |
| Poland | 3.83 | 3.58 | 3.33 | 3.33 | 3.33 | 3.33 | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| Romania | 6.20 | 5.75 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.50 | 4.10 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Turkey | 34.80 | 31.95 | 29.00 | 26.50 | 25.25 | 23.40 | 22.00 | 21.10 |
| Serbia | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Kazakhstan | 16.50 | 16.00 | 16.00 | 16.00 | 15.80 | 14.80 | 13.80 | 13.80 |
| Russia | 14.00 | 12.00 | 11.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 9.00 | 8.50 | 8.50 |
| Asia (%, eop) | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F |
| China* | 1.60 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 |
| India | 6.10 | 6.10 | 6.10 | 6.10 | 6.10 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 6.50 |
| Indonesia | 5.30 | 5.30 | 5.30 | 5.30 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| Korea | 2.75 | 2.70 | 2.65 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.70 |
| Philippines* | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| Singapore | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Taiwan* | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
10-year yields
Last updated: 30 January
| G10 (%, eop) | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US: Fed funds | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| 3M | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| 2Y | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| 5Y | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| 10Y | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| 30Y | 5.05 | 5.05 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| ECB deposit* | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| 3M | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 |
| 2Y | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.15 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| 5Y | 2.45 | 2.50 | 2.55 | 2.65 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.75 | 2.75 |
| 10Y | 2.90 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.15 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| 30Y | 3.60 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.75 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 |
| Japan | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| France | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.65 | 3.85 | 3.90 | 3.95 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Italy | 3.55 | 3.65 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Spain | 3.30 | 3.35 | 3.40 | 3.55 | 3.60 | 3.65 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| UK | 4.50 | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| Netherlands | 3.05 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.15 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Belgium | 3.45 | 3.50 | 3.55 | 3.65 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| Austria | 3.10 | 3.15 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.45 | 3.50 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| Ireland | 3.15 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Portugal | 3.25 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.50 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| Switzerland | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Sweden | 3.10 | 3.15 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 3.40 | 3.45 | 3.45 |
| Finland | 3.15 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 3.45 | 3.50 | 3.55 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Canada | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Australia | 4.25 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| EMEA (%, eop) | ||||||||
| Bulgaria | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 3.20 |
| Czech Republic | 4.37 | 4.05 | 3.91 | 3.87 | 3.87 | 3.87 | 3.87 | 3.87 |
| Hungary | 6.00 | 6.15 | 6.20 | 6.15 | 6.15 | 6.05 | 5.35 | 5.00 |
| Poland | 5.10 | 4.85 | 4.65 | 4.60 | 4.65 | 4.70 | 4.75 | 4.80 |
| Romania | 6.80 | 6.70 | 6.50 | 6.30 | 6.20 | 6.00 | 5.80 | 5.75 |
| Russia | 14.50 | 12.50 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 11.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.50 |
| Turkey | 27.50 | 26.10 | 24.50 | 23.60 | 21.40 | 20.30 | 18.90 | 18.00 |
| Asia (%, eop) | ||||||||
| China | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.05 | 2.10 | 2.15 |
| India | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.40 | 6.40 | 6.40 | 6.40 | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| Indonesia | 6.10 | 6.10 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.60 | 6.60 | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| Korea | 3.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.15 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| Philippines | 5.70 | 5.60 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| Singapore | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| Taiwan | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.55 |
FX
Last updated: 10 February
| G10 (eop) | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2027F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro | EUR/USD | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Japan | USD/JPY | 155 | 153 | 153 | 152 | 145 |
| UK | GBP/USD | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| Japan | EUR/JPY | 184 | 184 | 185 | 185 | 177 |
| UK | EUR/GBP | 0.88 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Canada | USD/CAD | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.33 |
| Australia | AUD/USD | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| New Zealand | NZD/USD | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| Switzerland | EUR/CHF | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.95 | 0.98 |
| Sweden | EUR/SEK | 10.75 | 10.60 | 10.50 | 10.30 | 10.30 |
| Norway | EUR/NOK | 11.50 | 11.30 | 11.20 | 11.10 | 10.90 |
| Denmark | EUR/DKK | 7.47 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 |
| EMEA (eop) | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2027F | |
| Serbia | EUR/RSD | 117.30 | 117.20 | 117.20 | 117.15 | 117.10 |
| Czech Republic | EUR/CZK | 24.24 | 24.21 | 24.17 | 24.13 | 24.05 |
| Hungary | EUR/HUF | 385 | 385 | 390 | 385 | 395 |
| Poland | EUR/PLN | 4.21 | 4.23 | 4.24 | 4.22 | 4.25 |
| Romania | EUR/RON | 5.09 | 5.10 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 5.18 |
| Turkey | USD/TRY | 45.15 | 47.12 | 49.20 | 51.00 | 59.00 |
| South Africa | USD/ZAR | 16.25 | 16.00 | 15.75 | 15.50 | 15.50 |
| Israel | USD/ILS | 3.15 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.05 | 3.05 |
| CIS (eop) | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2027F | |
| Azerbaijan | USD/AZN | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 2.21 | 2.21 |
| Kazakhstan | USD/KZT | 530 | 545 | 555 | 560 | 580 |
| Russia | USD/RUB | 75.00 | 80.00 | 85.00 | 95.00 | 105.00 |
| EUR/RUB | 87.75 | 94.40 | 102.00 | 115.90 | 128.10 | |
| Uzbekistan | USD/UZS | 12009 | 12129 | 12189 | 12249 | 12862 |
| Ukraine | USD/UAH | 42.60 | 42.80 | 42.80 | 42.80 | 43.50 |
| Latam (eop) | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2027F | |
| Brazil | USD/BRL | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Mexico | USD/MXN | 17.75 | 17.75 | 17.75 | 17.50 | 17.50 |
| Chile | USD/CLP | 925 | 900 | 875 | 850 | 850 |
| Asia (eop) | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2027F | |
| China | USD/CNY | 6.95 | 6.95 | 6.90 | 6.90 | 6.80 |
| India | USD/INR | 90.30 | 90.00 | 89.50 | 89.00 | 88.50 |
| Indonesia | USD/IDR | 16700 | 16700 | 16800 | 16800 | 17000 |
| Korea | USD/KRW | 1425 | 1400 | 1375 | 1400 | 1400 |
| Philippines | USD/PHP | 59.20 | 59.00 | 59.00 | 59.00 | 59.00 |
| Singapore | USD/SGD | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.30 |
| Taiwan | USD/TWD | 31.50 | 31.10 | 30.70 | 30.50 | 29.60 |
Commodities
Last updated: 30 January
| Oil and natural gas forecasts (avg) | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent ($/bbl) | 58 | 56 | 58 | 54 | 58 | 60 | 66 | 63 | 57 | 62 |
| Dutch TTF (EUR/MWh) | 33 | 28 | 27 | 30 | 30 | 24 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 26 |
| Metal Forecasts (avg) | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper ($/t) | 12,500 | 13,500 | 12,500 | 11,500 | 12,500 |
| Aluminium ($/t) | 3,150 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,250 | 3,200 |
| Nickel ($/t) | 17,500 | 17,000 | 16,500 | 17,000 | 17,000 |
| Zinc ($/t) | 3,250 | 3,200 | 3,150 | 3,150 | 3,200 |
| Lead ($/t) | 2,100 | 2,050 | 2,000 | 2,100 | 2,062 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 4,900 | 5,100 | 5,300 | 5,450 | 5,190 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 89.00 | 85.00 | 81.00 | 78.00 | 83.00 |
| Iron Ore ($/t) | 100.00 | 95.00 | 90.00 | 95.00 | 95.00 |