I read an interesting bit today. The author suggests that Trump’s delay in applying force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, currently blockaded by Iran and currently pressuring oil prices upward, is deliberate and part of a broader strategy intended to press the European nations that have been free-riding under Pax Americana to actually contribute to maintaining open sea lanes.

“Pax Americana,” the idea that America’s wealth and might should be projected to cover our friends and allies, is a discussion I’ve had with a libertarian friend many times. We both agree that America has been exploited for decades by Old Europe, we both agree that America has gotten involved in matters that were best stayed out of (ponder how different things would be if we didn’t kick Saddam out of Kuwait), and we both agree that pulling back to a “keep the sea lanes open” limit on our global projection would be a better idea than endless foreign adventures.

That pull-back would not, however, solve the European free-rider problem, as the linked essay notes. That problem long predates Trump, and it’s one I’ve been vocalizing for decades. That free-rider problem contributed to Europe’s current state of fecklessness and decay. Old Europe’s economies are over-regulated nightmares, producing little innovation, little growth, and endless bureaucratic quagmires. Their protectionism makes Trump look like a free-marketeer, and their arrogance severely hampers change and adaptation.

Trump’s pressure got them to increase their defense spending... somewhat. A decade ago, only 5 of 28 NATO nations met the 2% of GDP defense spending threshold. This year, all 32 are projected to do so, though several are just barely getting there. But spending money isn’t necessarily an indicator of capability. The UK is holding steady around 2% for the past decade, but its navy is almost undeployable and its military is broadly dysfunctional.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

None of this is a secret, and if I’m aware of it, rest assured that the US military, including the people surrounding and informing and advising Trump, are as well. Given that Trump has been talking endlessly about the raw deal that Americans are getting from Europe, even the most rabid TDSer has to concede he’s on to something.

So, the notion that Trump’s actions regarding the Strait of Hormuz are part of a “get off your asses” pressure campaign toward Old Europe rings true. You don’t have to credit 4D chess or some convoluted scheme on his part - it’s rather straightforward. America isn’t dependent on foreign oil (though the global price does affect us) the way many of our purported allies are, so such a tactic, while spiking gasoline prices back home, isn’t about to cripple our economy. Alliances are supposed to be two-way streets, not “daddy will fix all your problems while you continue to dabble in your narcissism” paternalism.

Unfortunately, I suspect Europe’s Best-and-Brightest would rather tough out the remaining 2.8 years of Trump by offering token gestures, than step up, fix their shit, and act like real allies should. They really want a return to “business as usual.”

So do many of our fellow Americans.

The fact that “business as usual” would include continued outflow of American tax dollars to European defense is not only untenable, it’s idiotically self-destructive. I recently analogized America to Orwell’s horse Boxer, who devoted a lifetime of service to the Animal Farm only to be shipped off to the glue factory once his usefulness ended. America can’t keep spending money we don’t have, and it’s an insult to Americans to spend money maintaining global sea lanes when the nations that benefit from them don’t do likewise.

Many fret that Trump will withdraw us from NATO. I don’t see that he has the power to do that unilaterally, but I also don’t see what the point of NATO is if many of the big players don’t field militaries worth a damn. Maybe it’s time for a realignment, for a new set of alliances that include nations that “get it” (e.g. the nations along the Baltic Sea) and telling those that pay lip service to the old alliance, no matter how long we’ve been “friends,” that their lack of interest in national defense is no longer America’s problem.

A return to “business as usual” will not be good for America. If the implicit guarantee that America will always be there for everyone else has to be taken away to shake some sense into the free-riders, so be it. As the saying goes, “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

I’m not a nativist or a protectionist, but I firmly believe that America should prioritize American interests. I’m also a realist who rejects nirvana fallacies and arguments from perfection, and know that America alone cannot maintain global peace. Nor should she/we. It’s time - long past time - for Europeans to square their defense/military shit up, and if it takes a Trumpish bull-in-a-china-shop approach to get that to happen, I’m sympathetic.

An afterword. America was held hostage by foreign oil for decades, and the geopolitical impact of that has had tremendously deleterious effects. Including the funding of Islamism’s spread across the globe, and including belligerences such as Putin’s and Xi’s. So, I will write again a point I’ve made ad nauseam.

Domestic energy policy is a crucial matter.

We can exploit our gas and oil resources to their fullest while building a couple hundred nuclear plants, and become a massive exporter of gas and oil. This would not only benefit our economy, it will undermine the power of hostile nations and support the independence of friendlies from those hostiles.

Or, we can follow Europe down the green energy suicide path.

Had Harris won, we’d be doing the latter, and accelerating the demise of the West and of Western values. This is why, no matter the Bad-Trump stuff, I continue to believe that Trump’s victory in 2024 was necessary and vital.