Energy Crisis by Tisa Saadah
Prediction System of Economic Crisis in Indonesia using Time Series Analysis and System Dynamic O... more Prediction System of Economic Crisis in Indonesia using Time Series Analysis and System Dynamic Optimized by Genetic Algorithm Siti Sa’adah. Supervisor: Prof. The Houw Liong, Co-Supervisor: Adiwijaya, MSi Abstract Economic crisis that had happened at 1997-1998 in Indonesia stimulate the researchers to study further because economic that came from words ‘ecos’ and ‘nomos’ means value of life can be used as economic indicators. The economic indicators are GDP (Gross Domestic Product), inflation, population, and oil import per year from 1980-2011, will be tested using time series analysis and system dynamic optimized by algorithm genetic. The results are 93% - 99% accuracy in training and up to 90% accuracy for testing. These results proved that, the prediction system able to fit data in finding historical optimal and small error. Error that had been gotten in this system was caused by the time series data that been used is too short and economic is a chaotic complex system, so the error cannot be avoided.
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Papers by Tisa Saadah
2013 International Conference on Advanced Computer Science and Information Systems (ICACSIS), 2013
Oil (energy) is huge influence of economic Indonesia. Since many sectors from Industries until in... more Oil (energy) is huge influence of economic Indonesia. Since many sectors from Industries until individual need it. In fact, Indonesia is a country with high density population. Because of that, the necessity of oil must be meet amount of inhabitant in Indonesia. If government failed to answer the demand of oil, then Indonesia will be face economic crisis for long-term. So that, the forecast of it still need to be concerned. Furthermore, data about population and oil import were used to forecast economic condition. Shape of it had been done by machine learning. The result shows that the growth of population has influence of oil needed. Because when the population increases exponentially then the necessity of energy (oil) consumption followed. It roots of economic crisis in longterm. It can be proved from the accuracy result in training around 98%, while 90% in testing. By mean of that, Indonesia should concern more about population aging on economic growth refer to availability of oil. In other perspective, machine either show that the model forecast still find error. Error was caused by the use of few data; beside the aspect of economic is complex and chaos area.
Oil (energy) is huge influence of economic Indonesia. Since many sectors from Industries until in... more Oil (energy) is huge influence of economic Indonesia. Since many sectors from Industries until individual need it. In fact, Indonesia is a country with high density population. Because of that, the necessity of oil must be meet amount of inhabitant in Indonesia. If government failed to answer the demand of oil, then Indonesia will be face economic crisis for long-term. So that, the forecast of it still need to be concerned. Furthermore, data about population and oil import were used to forecast economic condition. Shape of it had been done by machine learning.
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Energy Crisis by Tisa Saadah
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Papers by Tisa Saadah
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